Alert archive / New York / Areal Flood Advisories in 2011

Areal Flood Advisory 23, NWS Buffalo, NY

May 14, 2011Erie County, Niagara County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this areal flood advisory at May 14, 2011, 11:38 PM EDT for Erie County, Niagara County, New York. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2011, 11:38 PM EDT (03:38 UTC)
Expired
May 15, 2011, 2:30 AM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Erie County, NY, Niagara County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 2 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 5 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2011-05-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 369 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2011-05-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 19 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
369 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
534 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at May 14, 11:15 PM EDT, 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 14, 11:15 PM EDT, 23 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, May 14, 10:30 PM EDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

NYZ012-019>021-085-160230-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1030 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO PINPOINT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WHICH LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN...THIS RAIN COULD RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>008-010-011-013-014-160230-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
1030 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO PINPOINT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WHICH LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN...THIS RAIN COULD RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-160230-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1030 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 14, 5:57 PM EDT, 5 hours 41 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
557 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

NYZ020-142300-
CATTARAUGUS NY-
557 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
   CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...

* AT 551 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
  PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. STEADIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
  FOCUS IN THE VICINITY OF RANDOLPH AND SALAMANCA. THESE STORMS MAY
  BRING AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 600 PM AND 700 PM TO
  SOME LOCATIONS.

RECENT RAINFALL HAS LEFT THE REGION VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING. IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND TO
CAUSE CREEKS TO RISE NEAR BANKFUL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

LAT...LON 4242 7904 4244 7885 4252 7842 4200 7838
      4199 7905

APFFEL
Special weather statement, May 14, 10:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1013 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

NYZ001-010-085-150300-
ERIE NY-NIAGARA NY-
1013 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS BUFFALO THROUGH 1100 PM...

* AT 1007 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO THROUGH 1100
  PM. THIS MAY BRING A QUICK INCH OF RAIN TO MANY FROM DOWNTOWN
  BUFFALO TO THE NORTH TOWNS.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4309 7865 4300 7847 4269 7878 4276 7890
      4278 7886 4282 7888 4285 7887 4287 7891
      4294 7892

APFFEL
Special weather statement, May 14, 10:58 PM EDT, 40 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1058 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

NYZ001-010-150400-
ERIE NY-NIAGARA NY-
1058 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH TOWNS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

* AT 1050 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS BUFFALO...TONAWANDA...AND AMHERST.
  THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD LOCKPORT
  THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
  DOWNPOURS...WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4299 7901 4323 7869 4304 7848 4279 7877
      4290 7892 4294 7892 4295 7896 4298 7902

APFFEL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 14, 10:06 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBUFGenesee, Monroe, Orleans3 hr
May 14, 10:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBUFErie47 min
May 14, 10:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBUFErie62 min
May 15, 1:01 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBUFGenesee, Monroe, Orleans3 hr
May 15, 4:15 AM EDTFlood WatchBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more23 hr
May 15, 12:47 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBUFChautauqua3 hr
May 15, 4:05 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBUFAllegany4 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in New York, 2011Every areal flood advisory in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.