Special Weather Statement, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.  THE NEXT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL COME TOMORROW...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND UPSTATE VERMONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...BTV CONTINUES TO BE DOWN DUE TO COMMS FAILURE.
THEY MAY BE BACK UP AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN...AS WELL AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH LAKE HURON
AND GEORGIAN BAY. THE RUC40 SHOWS THE H500 RIDGE HOLDING
FIRMLY...BUT THE NAM AND HRRR 3-KM REF PRODUCT CONTINUE TO SHOWS
SOME ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION POPPING UP IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
THERE IS A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE BASED ON THE
LATEST LAPS DATA WITH SBCAPES OF 250 J/KG IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
TO UPWARDS OF 1000+ J/KG IN THE PORTIONS OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. WE INCREASED TO POPS TO CHC VALUES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE LOW LEVEL CAP ERODES
BASED ON THE 00Z KALB SOUNDING. HOURLY T/TD/RH/CLOUD TRENDS WERE
RETOOLED BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...AND THE GMOS.  NO FURTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERMS...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...THE EMERGENCY BACKUP FOR BTV CONTINUES DUE TO THE
COMMS ISSUE.  WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY T/TD TRENDS...AND
INCREASED THE CLOUDS A LITTLE BIT FASTER SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THE NAM/GFS/LATEST HRRR 3-KM REF PRODUCT SHOWS SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A THERMAL/PREFRONTAL
TROUGH BTWN 06Z-12Z.  WE INCREASED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND UPSTATE VT.  THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
ELEVATED INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING SBCAPE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 415 PM EDT...EMERGENCY BACKUP IS IN PLACE FOR BTV AS OF 3
PM. THE WFO AT ALY HAS ISSUED ALL PRODUCTS...AND THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION WILL REFLECT THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE GRIDS. THE MID AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER NRN NY AND VT OVERNIGHT...AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO N-CNTRL ONTARIO. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE MILD WITH
MID 50S TO L60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHES BASED ON THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF TRENDS.  THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
COINCIDE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  THE DAY 2 GRAPHIC FROM SPC JIVES WITH THE
NAM/GFS.  ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO GET INTO THE
500-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG A BTV-SLK AXIS.  MAX TEMPS WILL GET INTO
THE 80-85F RANGE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.  THE 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RISE TO 35-50 KTS...SO DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITH MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS FORMING INTO
LINES.  AN ISOLD SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.  WE STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING.  H850 TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO 0C OVER THE
REGION BASED ON THE GFS.  THE PCPN ENDS...AND THE WINDS SHIFT FROM
THE SW TO THE W/NW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND U40S TO M50S IN
THE VALLEY.

THURSDAY...DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR WITH BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO
30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION TO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...WITH 50S
OVER THE MTNS...AND 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR.  FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
DACKS WITH LOWS IN THE U20S TO L30S.  MID 30S TO L40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 2C AND 4C INTO
FRIDAY SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE U50S MTNS TO M60S VALLEYS. STILL
SOME QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO AMOUNT OF CLRING IN NW FLW AND
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...BUT IF
CLRING DEVELOPS AND WINDS DECOUPLE SOME PATCHY FROST COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS 32F AT SLK FRIDAY MORNING.
WL MENTION MID 30S TO M40S ATTM...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...DRY
NW FLW ALOFT CONTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL
TEMPS. WEAK SFC WARM FRNT FEATURE MAY PRODUCE A SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER 0.10". THE FCST BECMS MORE UNCERTAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH...WHILE PROGRESSIVE NW FLW
ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NE CONUS. THIS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING BACK
UP...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WE CONTINUE
TO WATCH TRENDS UPSTREAM ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO AND ANY ACTIVITY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY.  LOCAL FOG AT SLK MAY PRODUCE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT. IT SEEMS A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS
EXTENDING INTO VERY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO
BE A BIT EARLIER.  DUE TO THIS...WE WILL KEEP AVIATION CONDITIONS
VFR AT THE PRESENT TIME AND PLACE A VCSH MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z FOR
LOCATION WEST OF BURLINGTON AND BETWEEN 12Z-17Z ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC AS WE TAP INTO 20-30KTS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING.  WINDS THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED OVRNT...VFR...INCR CLDS...CHC -SHRA LATE.
THU...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA.
THU NT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 430 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO IMPACT LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS PM...THEN
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO
25 KNOTS.

FOR BOATERS MANY HAZARDS STILL EXIST. BREAKWATER AND OTHER ROCKS
OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO NAVIGATION MAY BE OBSCURED BY THE HIGH WATER
LEVELS ON THE LAKE. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF DEBRIS REMAIN IN THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER MOUTHS. DUE TO THESE FACTORS...
RECREATIONAL BOATING IS DISCOURAGED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE
WETTEST MONTH. SEE INFORMATION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

WETTEST MAY
8.67 INCHES IN 2011 (THROUGH 5/30)
7.10 INCHES IN 2006
6.31 INCHES IN 1983

WETTEST APRIL
7.88 INCHES IN 2011
6.55 INCHES IN 1983
6.12 INCHES IN 1996

METEOROLOGICAL SPRING - MAR/APR/MAY
19.94 INCHES IN 2011 (THROUGH 5/30)
15.46 INCHES IN 1983
12.77 INCHES IN 2000

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WASULA/BGM
MARINE...WASULA/WFO BTV
CLIMATE...WFO BTV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
458 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087-020900-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
458 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF TAKING DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOSS OF POWER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NYZ028-035-020900-
EASTERN CLINTON-EASTERN ESSEX-
458 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VTZ001>012-016>019-020900-
GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-
LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
458 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST
VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS VERMONT. A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN VERMONT SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY...THEN MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

EVENSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

NYZ027-028-030-031-010900-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
WESTERN CLINTON NY-
427 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND
NORTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 424 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BOMBAY...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE MAY BE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
NORTH BURKE...CONSTABLE...EARLVILLE...CHURUBUSCO...CANNON CORNERS...

LAT...LON 4500 7352 4488 7361 4472 7456 4501 7464
      4500 7414 4502 7356

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
521 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

NYZ034-035-VTZ005-008-009-017-018-011015-
EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN ESSEX NY-
WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-
WESTERN ESSEX NY-
521 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ESSEX...NORTHERN
ADDISON...SOUTHERN CHITTENDEN AND WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 515 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 630 AM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE MAY BE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
ELIZABETHTOWN...WADHAMS...DIAMOND ISLAND...WHALLONSBURG...KINGSLAND
BAY STATE PARK...NORTH FERRISBURGH...MONKTON...STARKSBORO...
HANKSVILLE...CAMELS HUMP STATE PARK...IRASVILLE...

LAT...LON 4450 7299 4410 7280 4400 7382 4432 7388