Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SFC COLD
FRONT...LAKE BREEZY BOUNDARY AND HIGHER TRRN OF THE
DACKS...INTERACTING WITH SOME SFC INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS THE WESTERN CPV ATTM. THIS LINE
WL CONT TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THRU THE CPV AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THIS AFTN. MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT WL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS THIS AFTN. WL MENTION CHC POPS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV AND PART OF THE WESTERN DACKS. GIVEN SFC
BASED CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ACRS THE CPV...A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR WITH SFC DWPTS
FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S/50S IS ADVECTING INTO THE SLV ATTM AND
WL BE INTO THE CPV BY EVENING. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS BECMG NORTHWEST BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH QUEBEC
WILL GLANCE NORTHERN VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A GENERAL
INCREASE IN SKY COVER EXPECTED...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL SO TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER COOL
TEMPS TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT
FOR SOME 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING EAST FROM GREAT LAKES
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATER IN THE DAY OVER WESTERN ZONES.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER AS
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.

RESPITE FROM SHOWERS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL AS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND DRY AIR MOVES IN FOR VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH WEAK SYSTEM
PASSAGE. 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-190845-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
436 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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