Small Craft Advisory for Winds 9, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
336 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...THE BIGGEST SHORT
TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWING THE RETURN OF
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER
WAS NOTED ON THIS MORNING'S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.  A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ALSO EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER...WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS IT HEADS
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.  AS THIS OCCURS...IT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD FROM THE ROCKIES AND
TOWARD OUR REGION.  IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...IT SHOULD REACH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING AND ENCROACH
UPON ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES JUST AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT -- IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE US-281 CORRIDOR BY NOON...AND MORE THAN 60 MILES OFFSHORE BY
SUNSET.

EVEN WITH A GOOD 24 HOURS /GIVE-OR-TAKE/ OF ONSHORE FLOW...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE ODDS OF SEEING SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  FIRST...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY APPEARS TO PASS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WITH MOST OF
THE DYNAMICS GETTING SOMEWHAT SHEARED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.  SECOND...THE LATEST SUITES OF SHORT-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE RATHER RAPID DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  SOME OF THE DATA EVEN INDICATE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIGHT BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST AND START DRYING
EVEN BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

HONESTLY...BASED ON EVERYTHING I'M SEEING...I FEEL THE ODDS OF
SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT THAT GREAT
/BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED/.  THAT SAID...I PLAN ON MAINTAINING THE
ONGOING TREND WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES.  THE GREATEST ODDS
OF SEEING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND PROBABLY EAST OF THE US-281 CORRIDOR.  THIS IS DUE TO SLIGHTLY
/KEY WORD...SLIGHTLY/ DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE AN ARDUOUS TASK DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TIMING AND ANY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  MY
GUT FEELING IS THAT CURRENT HIGHS MAY BE A TAD ON THE WARM SIDE...
NAMELY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF JIM HOGG...STARR...AND ZAPATA
COUNTIES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MAY BE LOWERED A TOUCH...
ESPECIALLY IN THESE AREAS.  LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UNTIL THE FRONT THOUGH...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEARLY
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  THE
ONLY WEATHER IMPACT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE
TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  /D. BUTTS/

.LONG TERM.../6 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE TO LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
THURSDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

THIS SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RETURN OF COLDER CONDITIONS TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALREADY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHT SWITCH AROUND 30 EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO WARM MORE THAN THE MID 50S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN
COLDER WITH THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED NORTH TO THE MID 30S OR LOWER
EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE PASSING
OVER A REGION WHICH COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE CWFA ON FRIDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
MOVING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY.  THIS
WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY...AND EVEN
THE UPPER 70S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09/0000 UTC. BETWEEN 09/0000-09/1200 UTC...FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. SE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 14-18 KTS TODAY...WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS. THE GUSTS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
09/0000 UTC...BUT PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GREATER
THAN 10 KTS. /D. BUTTS/

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY... SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE MARINE AREA SHOULD STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS MID-MORNING /AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON/...AND RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE EXCEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
SUCH...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT NOON
TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /D. BUTTS/

6 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ELEVATED SEAS AND NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED AS A RESULT. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE OBSERVED AS WELL. THESE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.  THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO
BEGIN TO DECREASE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MOVING INTO
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.  LOW TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  62  67  38 /   0  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          73  62  67  38 /   0  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            72  60  68  37 /   0  10  20  10
MCALLEN              73  61  68  36 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  60  68  37 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  63  68  43 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

53/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
519 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-082330-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
519 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND
ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE BEACHES OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SURGE OF POLAR AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.