Small Craft Advisory for Winds 8, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
135 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...AN AIR MASS OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE APPROACH OF A MID
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMPLICATE MATTERS...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT BRO SHOW A BIT LESS OF
THE SATURATED PROFILE ALOFT ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN A FORECAST
THAT INCLUDES SNOW FLURRIES FOR THE MID VALLEY...SLEET FOR THE COAST
AND FREEZING RAIN FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN THOSE AREAS...BUT THE RARE
OCCURRENCE OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE AN ISSUE IN AND OF ITSELF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINTER PRECIPITATION EPISODE
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ANY WINTRY
PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO COLD RAIN BRIEFLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE QUICKLY DEPARTING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
QUICKLY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SUBFREEZING NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WITH
MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL
INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT POLAR OUTBREAK AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
1050 HIGH SKIMS DOWN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. SIMILAR
MODELS SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE NEXT EVENT WILL BE A SHORT
COLD BLAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD SPREAD WEST OVER TIME AS A
MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIMITED IMPACT TO
FLYING EXPECTED UNTIL ROUGHLY THURSDAY MID DAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE....RANGING FROM FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
COAST TO SNOW FLURRIES INLAND. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE...WITH A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OVERALL...BUT THE
SITUATION COULD RESULT IN DISRUPTIONS OR DELAYS DUE TO THE
UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE OF SAID PRECIPITATION IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. BUOY 020 REPORTED
NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS AT
7.2 FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND PERIOD AT 1250 PM THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS BEYOND
THURSDAY MORNING AS SEAS OFFSHORE REMAIN AT 7 FEET OR ABOVE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...POLAR AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH SOME COLD RAINS FOR THE GULF WATERS AND SOME
FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVALENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS FALLING FROM 8 FEET
FRIDAY TO 3 TO 5 FEET SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  26  38  25  42 /  30  30  50  30
BROWNSVILLE          26  37  25  39 /  30  30  50  30
HARLINGEN            23  35  24  39 /  20  20  40  30
MCALLEN              21  34  24  41 /  10  10  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      23  36  24  44 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   37  44  36  43 /  40  40  60  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR TXZ248>255.

     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR TXZ248>257.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ250-251-253>257.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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