Small Craft Advisory for Winds 7, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
949 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT TUESDAY BUT WILL
NOT SEE TEMPERATURES DROP DRAMATICALLY UNTIL TUES NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVING...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND
AS WINDS DIMINISH AT THE SURFACE. BELIEVE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AND DENSE FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. THE OTHER CONCERN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES AS SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS WEST TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...BELIEVE
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX AS THE CAP ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND ERODES AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
BACK BUILD INTO KENEDY COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA TUES MORNING AS A RESULT.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AND REACH THE REST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WED
MORNING AS THE COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE
FREEZE WATCH FOR TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SIT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES REGION. THIS
WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND INCREASING THURSDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS PRECIP COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX...WITH
PRIMARILY SLEET BEING OBSERVED. HOWEVER...A LITTLE SNOW COULD BE
MIXED INTO THE REGION AS WELL. THE WINTRY MIX SHOULD MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.

AS MENTIONED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL LOCATIONS...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
LIKELY SEEING A HARD FREEZE.  THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS THE TIME ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY WILL BE
LIMITED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.  THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF ONSHORE FLOW BACK TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER AND MID 70S.  OVERALL NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 1100FT AT KT65 TO NEAR 3400FT AT KBRO.
VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 3SM WITH FOG AT KSPL. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TUES MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. VAD WINDS INDICATE
MAX WINDS OF 35 KTS AT 5000FT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AS WINDS DIMINISH AT THE SURFACE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUES MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 3
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLIER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SCA/GALE WATCH FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TUESDAY/TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE TUES AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF GALE FORCE OR HIGHER LIKELY THROUGH TUES EVENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TUES NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING RAPIDLY OFFSHORE. THE GALE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY GALE WARNINGS AS A RESULT.

6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY DUE TO THESE ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS. THE WINDS MAY EVEN
GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY WARRANT GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE FOR THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THIS AREA AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING WINDS ON
THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPROVING BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DECREASE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER AIR INITIALLY WITH STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUES MORNING INTO
EARLY TUES AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWER 20S AND POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS
WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR ACTIVITY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE CWA TUESDAY AS
FUELS REMAIN CURED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  61  75  31  45 /  10  20   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          67  76  30  46 /  10  20   0   0
HARLINGEN            60  76  28  46 /  10  20   0   0
MCALLEN              61  79  32  47 /  10  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      62  76  32  48 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  74  38  46 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ248>257.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

TXZ248>257-011200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
637 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WIDESPREAD FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE VERY
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR ACTIVITY. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND A FREEZE
WARNING OR HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT TIMES. SOME
FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA
CHICA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-011200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
637 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A GALE WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AS A RESULT. SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TOMASELLI/CASTILLO