Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
329 AM CST THU JAN 20 2011

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...COLD FRONT BARRELING
THROUGH TEXAS ATTM...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR SAN ANGELO TO
ABILENE TO WICHITA FALLS. WIND SHIFT STILL TIMED FOR A MORNING TIME
SLOT...WITH NORTHERN AREAS AROUND SUNRISE AND CAMERON COUNTY JUST
BEFORE NOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL TRAIL THE WIND SHIFT BY 3 TO 6
HOURS...SO STRONGEST EFFECT WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR STILL WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL NOT
CORRESPOND WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...SO FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE. MINIMAL DYNAMICS ALOFT AND LLV CAP WILL MINIMIZE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT
WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAA AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CRASH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 30S AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE
ABOVE 60 TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED CAA.
&&

.LONG TERM /6 PM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AS A RESULT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD MONDAY BUT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ITS
WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO TUESDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE THE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE STATE MOVES EASTWARD. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.
&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD DECK OVERSPREADING THE REGION ATTM...WITH SOME
BREAKS NOTED ALONG THE COAST. LOWERED VIS IS ALSO NOTED
SPORADICALLY...AND HAS FLUCTUATED AT ALL SITES. DENSER FOG NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A THREAT AS BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS FARTHER
NORTH ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH. STRONGER WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS AFTER THE WINDS
SHIFT...REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 30KTS.
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH QUICKLY
CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH
BREEZES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT TODAY. WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AROUND NOON...BUT THE SURGE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE SURGE WILL REACH
AROUND 30 KNOTS BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH SEAS JUMPING UP TO
8 TO 10 FEET. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS FROM 21Z THROUGH 09Z...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER
THAT UNTIL 18Z. SCA WILL ALSO BE POSTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FROM
21Z THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW...AS WINDS WILL NOT REACH THE GALE
THRESHOLD THERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS FALLING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
FALL BACK TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

6 PM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TX
COAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
SUN NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS A RESULT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  42  56  39 /  20  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          75  40  56  37 /  20  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            74  40  57  35 /  20  10   0   0
MCALLEN              76  41  60  38 /  10  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      72  40  61  39 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  45  54  45 /  20  10   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
353 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

TXZ248>257-201200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
353 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-201200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
353 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...ROUGH BAY WATERS AND HIGH SEAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS DURING THAT TIME.

AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL
BEACHES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.