Gale Watch 4, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
328 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
FILL IN THE LOW PRESSURE AND KILL WINDS BY EVENING. THE INITIAL COLD
FRONT WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTHERN REACHES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT BLOWING THROUGH TO THE
BROWNSVILLE AREA BY DAWN. SHOULD HAVE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWER
AND EMBEDDED TSTM POTENTIAL JUST AHEAD OF TO JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERCAST SKIES AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS THIN AND WINDS DROP OFF. TEMPS IN THE MID TO
HIGH 80S TODAY WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY. THE
TIMING OF DRIER AIR ARRIVAL AND 20 FT WINDS DOES NOT MATCH UP VERY
WELL AND...ALTHOUGH ERRATIC WILDFIRE WILL BE POSSIBLE...A RANGELAND
FIRE DISCUSSION MAY BE ADEQUATE TO DISCUSS THE INCREASED THREAT OF
WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD DUE TO THE RAPID CHANGE IN CONDITIONS AND
WIND WITH THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AMOUNTING TO A FEW
DEGREES UP OR DOWN HERE AND THERE. A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
WHILE ONE 500 MB TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
AND ANOTHER ENTERS THE WEST COAST AND RAPIDLY SWINGS NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ALSO DOMINATED AT THE
SURFACE BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL TRANSITION FROM EAST TEXAS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL OCCUR...AIDED MAINLY BY A GRADUAL INCREASE
OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH SEAS AROUND 4 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 020 THIS
MORNING. SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHEAST MARINE WIND TODAY...AT TIMES GUSTY
AND IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE AT AROUND
FOUR FEET. WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AM AND 6 AM...WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING
NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH AND BUILDING SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN QUICKLY OVER THE GULF AS FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS DEVELOP IN THE FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOVE SEVEN FEET DURING THE MORNING...FURTHER
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET OFFSHORE LATER IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL END QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISHING STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER
OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH AN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOT ENTIRELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ130-
     132-135.

     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

54/66