Fire Weather Watch 13, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
430 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
SHIFTING WEST TODAY AND TUES AS THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TX LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. THE 00Z
BRO SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A PWAT OF 1.12 INCHES AND A CAPE OF
ONLY 33 J/KG. THESE OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES WILL NOT LIKELY REBOUND
ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY CONV POTENTIAL
WITH THE FROPA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONV WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED
TO THE IMMEDIATE BAY AND GULF WATERS WHERE THE CAPE VALUES MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD CONV ON TUES MORNING. THE EXPECTED
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE GFS
IS MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON TUES VERSUS THE NAM GUIDANCE
WHICH MOVES IT THROUGH CLOSER TO MIDDAY. THIS RESULTS IN THE MET
TEMP GUIDANCE COMING IN MUCH WARMER ON TUES VERSUS THE MAV GUIDANCE.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET TEMP GUIDANCE AND WILL LEAN
CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY AND WILL GO CLOSER TO THE
MAV HIGH TEMPS FOR TUES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE COLD FRONT AND
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL STEADILY MOVE FARTHER
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL ORIGINALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA TO BECOME RE-
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THE ENTIRE TIME. ALTHOUGH GFS MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST SOME
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
RAINFALL...THUS DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER AND NEARLY
CLEAR ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ASSISTED OF COURSE BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 1 INCH OR A LITTLE MORE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL AROUND THE MIDDLE THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE LATEST OB FROM BUOY020
INDICATES AN EAST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SWELLS AROUND 3 FT.
EXPECT THE SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE AS THE SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OVER THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS PREVENTED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONG PGF FROM EAST TO WEST TOWARDS THE
LOWER TX COASTLINE. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FROPA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DECAY AS THE STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE GULF AND BAY WATERS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING NORTH FLOW. WILL ISSUE AN SCA
FOR TUES FOR BOTH THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL POSSIBLY CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DIMINISHING STRONG WINDS AND
SUBSIDING HIGH SEAS PREVAIL. MUCH IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RH VALUES ON TUES AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE 25 TO 35 % RANGE WHILE THE 20 FT WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUES AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ACCORDINGLY WILL ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE BRO CWA. BY TUES NIGHT THE RH VALUES WILL START TO REBOUND
PRETTY QUICKLY WHILE THE 20 FT WINDS WILL QUICKLY SLACKEN REDUCING
THE THREAT FOR ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SHORT TERM...SPEECE-60
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
FXC/MESO...CAMPBELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

TXZ248>257-171100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
545 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO ROUGH
SWELLS FROM THE EAST COMBINING WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AT
THE LOCAL BEACHES DURING THIS PERIOD. STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES FROM
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-171100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
545 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG NORTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPEECE