Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STEADY SNOW WAS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY.  A SECOND STORM
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE COASTAL PLAIN
TONIGHT.  A THIRD WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION SOMETIME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INVERTED TROUGH WAS FINALLY WEAKENING.  WE ARE GOING TO LET ALL
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS EXPIRE...BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR SLIPPERY
TRAVEL THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...THE BAND OF FORCING WAS LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO LEAVE A COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THE RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW AREAS OF LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MONADNOCKS IN SOUTHERN NH/EAST SLOPES
OF THE WORCESTER HILLS SO A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 OR 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE....AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
LIFT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THROUGH OUT THE DAY.  CAN/T RULE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ANYWHERE...BUT THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH...AS
WELL AS NORTHEAST MA.  NO MORE THAN A FRESH COATING TO 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COAST WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING...SO NOTHING THAT
FALLS AFTER MID MORNING SHOULD ACCUMULATE ON PAVED SURFACES ACROSS
THIS REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF NEW
ENG SAT AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SE NEW ENG SAT NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A STRONGER SFC LOW WHICH TAKES A LIKELY TRACK A BIT SE OF THE
BENCHMARK SAT NIGHT.  THE ALL IMPORTANT MID LEVEL LOW TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL TO SNOW ACCUM.  THE MID LEVEL CENTER IS DEEPENING BUT IS
COMPACT SUGGESTING HEAVY SNOW MAY NOT EXTEND FAR TO THE NW OF THE
TRACK.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SE MA AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
FOR HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AS SNOW GROWTH IS VERY FAVORABLE IN THIS
REGION.  COLD 850 MB TEMPS AND PRECIP OCCURRING AT NIGHT WILL ENSURE
ALL SNOW ON THE ISLANDS.

OUR PRELIMINARY THINKING IS FOR 3-6" FOR SE MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS E OF
PYM-EWB LINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NW.  HOWEVER...THIS IS TRACK
DEPENDENT AND ANY DEVIATION IN THE LOW TRACK WILL AFFECT THE SNOW
ACCUM.  WE HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE AN ADVISORY WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF
SE MA AND RI. LOW PROB FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

BECOMING WINDY ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT WITH SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES.
LINGERING LIFT ALOFT RIGHT AROUND 12Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE AT THAT TIME. SO THERE MAY BE
LINGERING SNOW...MAINLY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING. CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES DURING THE DAY BUT
DOESN/T COMPLETELY MOVE OUT BY EVENING...SO EXPECT THINNING CLOUDS
BUT NOT CLEARING. ANY CLEARING WILL BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS AT 925 MB SUGGEST MAX TEMP POTENTIAL IN THE MID 30S...WE
USED A BLEND OF MOS WHICH YIELDS 30 NORTHWEST TO MID 30S EAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LINGERS ON MONDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL
A COUPLE OF DEGREES MONDAY AND THEN MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES
TUESDAY. TEMPS AT 925 MB SUGGEST A MAX TEMP POTENTIAL MONDAY OF
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE MATCHES UP WELL WITH
THIS FOR MONDAY AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY LESS COLD MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY.

INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT TUESDAY POINTS TO INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEEK MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDE VARIETY IN FORECAST SURFACE
POSITIONS OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...RANGING FROM THE GEM
POSITION NEAR THE BENCHMARK TO THE GFS POSITION ABOUT 3 DEGREES
SOUTHEAST OF THERE. ALL MODELS BRING MEASURABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. OF SOME
CONCERN IS THE DEPICTION OF A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB PASSING SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND ON 3 OF THE MODELS...THIS WOULD WORK AGAINST
SUBSTANTIAL PCPN. WE WILL BRING CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH POPS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFF.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MEDIUM...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

TODAY...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE
BRIEF TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR MAY OCCUR...BUT
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR/IFR IN SNOW OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SUNDAY...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS IN SNOW SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCE FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY W-NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KT.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.  NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE. SOUTH COAST MAY EXPERIENCE IFR DURING THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS OF THE STORM TRACK REMAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH SCA THRESHOLDS AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK.

OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR NW GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THE DAY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 7-10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...NW WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH...BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER. THERE IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF GALES ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-233-234-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC - NOT UPDATED
LONG TERM...WTB - NOT UPDATED
AVIATION...FRANK/STRAUSS
MARINE...FRANK/KJC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-081300-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...AYER...JAFFREY...
KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
405 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN SLIPPERY TRAVEL EARLY THIS MORNING...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRESH COATING TO 1 INCH
OF SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 8 AM...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...SO
UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO HALF MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION.

FRANK