Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

042 
WWUS41 KBOX 240336
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1036 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>012-014-026-NHZ011-012-015-241145-
/O.CON.KBOX.WC.W.0001.110124T0500Z-110124T1400Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...CAMBRIDGE...AYER...JAFFREY...
KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
1036 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND 
  EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE. 

* HAZARDS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO FALL TO -25 DEGREES OR COLDER FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. A
WIND CHILL INDEX BELOW -30 CAN BRING ABOUT FROSTBITE IN AS LITTLE
AS 10 MINUTES. OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED. IF YOU ARE
HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND KEEP YOUR HANDS AND HEAD
COVERED TO PROTECT AGAINST FROSTBITE

&&

$$

MAZ013-015>022-RIZ001>007-241145-
/O.CON.KBOX.WC.Y.0001.110124T0500Z-110124T1400Z/
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT
1036 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING 
  BOSTON AND THE UPPER CAPE. 

* HAZARDS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 MPH LATE.

* TEMPERATURES...ZERO TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO REACH -15 TO -24 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WIND CHILL INDEX
OF -20. IF YOU ARE HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A
HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

718 
WWUS41 KBOX 240909
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>012-014-026-NHZ011-012-015-241600-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110124T1600Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...CAMBRIDGE...AYER...JAFFREY...
KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
409 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011

...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND 
  EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE. 

* HAZARDS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO FALL TO -25 DEGREES OR COLDER FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. A
WIND CHILL INDEX BELOW -30 CAN BRING ABOUT FROSTBITE IN AS LITTLE
AS 10 MINUTES. OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED. IF YOU ARE
HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND KEEP YOUR HANDS AND HEAD
COVERED TO PROTECT AGAINST FROSTBITE

&&

$$

MAZ013-015>022-RIZ001>007-241600-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110124T1600Z/
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT
409 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING 
  BOSTON AND THE UPPER CAPE. 

* HAZARDS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 MPH LATE.

* TEMPERATURES...ZERO TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO REACH -15 TO -24 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WIND CHILL INDEX
OF -20. IF YOU ARE HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A
HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

488 
WWUS41 KBOX 241559
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1059 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>012-014-026-NHZ011-012-015-241700-
/O.EXP.KBOX.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110124T1600Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...CAMBRIDGE...AYER...JAFFREY...
KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
1059 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011

...WIND CHILL WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND CHILL WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

WHILE STILL COLD...WIND CHILLS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE WIND
CHILL WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

MAZ013-015>022-RIZ001>007-241700-
/O.EXP.KBOX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110124T1600Z/
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT
1059 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

WHILE STILL COLD...WIND CHILLS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

RLG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
122 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY. THIS
WILL USHER IN BITTERLY COLD WEATHER LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND/OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. BLUSTERY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 1 PM...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ROTATING SWD ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISSUED SPS FOR 1-2" ACCUM. EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER THE
OCEAN COMBINED WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM INVERTED TROF CAUSING
THE SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WIND BACKS TO NW...BUT SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HYA.

PREVIOUS DISC...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENG WILL MOVE EWD THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MID CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE BUT TREND WILL
BE FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST.

OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE WATERS NORTH AND
EAST OF CAPE COD WITH BACK EDGE CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
CAPE. TRAJECTORY WILL BACK TO 320-330 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIER SNOW JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS 850 TEMPS
FALL TO NEAR -20C THIS AFTERNOON DELTA T WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
20C WITH OCEAN INDUCUED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES
AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE OUTERMOST CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD ACCUM UP TO 1". A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALSO MAY
CLIP CAPE ANN.

LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER NICELY
FROM MORNING LOWS. HOWEVER...INCREASING CAA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
ARCTIC FRONT WILL OFFSET SUNSHINE WITH MAXES REACHING MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...EXCEPT CLOSE TO 30 OUTER CAPE AND ACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
*** DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
 MONDAY ***

TONIGHT...
THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT AND MON WILL BE THE EXTREME COLD. MOST
MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPS TONIGHT DROPPING TO -20C TO -25C ACROSS
THE REGION! THIS COMBINED WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPS OF MINUS 5 TO MINUS 15
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE TRICKY AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF
HOW QUICKLY WINDS WILL ABATE TONIGHT HAVE DECIDED WITH OTHER
OFFICES TO CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL WATCH.

AS PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW ZERO LOWS FOR BOTH
BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FIRST OCCURRENCE
OF BELOW ZERO READINGS IN 6 YEARS...ON JANUARY 22 2005 /THE DAY
PRIOR TO THE BLIZZARD OF '05/.

DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH CAPE COD THE EXCEPTION AS SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE.

TEMPS WERE DERIVED FROM IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED MAVMOS/METNAM AND
2 METER TEMPS FROM THE NAM.

MONDAY...
AN EXTREMELY COLD START WITH TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING TO ABOUT 5 TO
15 DEGS DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. NW BREEZE
DURING THE MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC. THIS WILL ALSO BRING TO AN END ANY OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WERE DERIVED FROM IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED
METNAM/MAVMOS AND NAM 2 METER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MDL SOLNS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH MID-WEEK COASTAL STORM.
LATEST 0Z ECMWF...WHICH NOTABLY HAS RETAINED NEAR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...AGREES WELL WITH H5-SFC MASS
FIELDS AMONGST GEFS/DGEX/GEM ENS MDLS...WHILE OPER GFS/GEM REMAIN
THE OUTLIERS...BOTH SLOWER THAN ALL GUIDANCE.  NOTABLY YESTERDAYS 0Z
GFS WAS THE FASTEST MDL GUIDANCE.

H5 POS TILTED TROF DEEPENS THRU THE ERN CONUS AND BECOMES NEG TILTED
BY 12Z WED...LIFTING NEWD AS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
BY 0Z THURS. AT SUCH TIME MDL SOLNS HIGHLIGHT WAA COUPLED WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OF HIGH THETAE AIR RESULTING IN MODEST MOIST CONV
THRU THE TROWAL STRUCTURE INTO FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH RGNS. PARENT H3
JET AXES ARE NEARLY ADJACENT ALLOWING A COUPLING OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE
LEFT EXIT RGN AND THEREFORE STRONG UPR LVL DIV IN PROXIMITY TO
STRONG MID-LVL WAA...WHILE A STRONG NLY H925 50-60 KT LLJ IS
COLLOCATED AT THE SFC. ITS WORTH NOTING SUCH VERT STRUCTURE ALLOWS
FOR A COUPLING OF UPR AND LWR JET STREAMS AND STRONG VERT LIFT THRU
THE ATMOS COLUMN...AS EVIDENCED IN THE AGEO FLOW IN THE ECMWF. NOT
SURPRISING THE COMBINATION AIDES IN THE DVLPMNT OF A NEARLY STACKED
LOW FROM THE SFC TO H3...WITH THE ECWMF ADVERTISING AROUND 980 MB
LOW OVER ITS PAST THREE RUNS. CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY WITH A
PRESENT NEGATIVE NAO/AO TREND.

SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? AN AREA OF FAVORABLE PRECIP DVLPMNT WILL
OCCUR SEEMS LIKELY ALONG THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CLOSED LOW SYS. WITH
SFC-H85 FRZ LINES WOBBLING WITHIN THE PROXIMITY OF BUZZARDS BAY AND
CANAL RGN INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE
PRESENT FCST TRACK OF THE NEARLY STACKED LOW...THE BETTER PRECIP
DVLPMNT LOOKS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND PERHAPS MORE
OFFSHORE. SNOW STILL IS POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS...WITH A
RAIN-SNOW MIX IN THE SRN COASTAL PLAIN AND RAIN OUT OF THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. WITH SUCH A DEEP SYS THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF WIND ASSOC
WITH THIS COASTAL STORM AS EVIDENCE FROM PREV MENTIONED LLJ...AND
PRESENT TRACK COULD LEND TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

YET...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE SYS ITSELF IS ONLY COMING ONSHORE IN
THE PAC NW AND IS DAYS AWAY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF BOTH TRACK... TIMING...AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SYS BY MID-WEEK...THIS WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT WHERE
THE BEST PRECIP ORIGINATES AND WHERE THE FRZ LINE SITUATES. DETAILS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TIME.

FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...BLENDED 2M ECMWF WHILE ENCOMPASSING MOS
GUIDANCE...DAILY SKY/WIND TRENDS...AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW
COVERED GROUND. FOR SKY AND WINDS...BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF
WHILE INCORPORATING PREV FCSTR THINKING.

INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM COOLER AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD USHER INTO THE RGN FOR FRI. SEVERAL SHRTWV DISTURBANCES
ARE FCST TO CONTINUALLY ROTATE THRU THE LONGWAVE TROF ACRS THE NERN
CONUS. MDL SOLNS IN AGREEMENT OF A CLIPPER SYS INTO THE WEEKEND
USHERING CHC POPS AND COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MEDIUM...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT HYA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING BUT AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER CAPE...MAINLY E OF HYA. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH ANY CIGS AOA BKN120. GUSTY
NW WINDS CAPE/ISLANDS DIMINISHING.

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR IN THE EVENING...BUT LOW PROB FOR
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR PREVAILING VFR. NW WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW.

WED...A COASTAL STORM SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE REGION WITH A COMBINATION
OF STRONG WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS
AND MIXED PRECIP WITHIN THE COASTAL PLAIN OUT TO THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. THOUGH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM TRACK THEIR IS
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH POTENTIAL TRENDS.

THURS...GUSTY NW WINDS WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...
*** HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH TONIGHT ***

TODAY...
N-NW WINDS STEADILY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO 20-30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH REDUCED VSBY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
EASTERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH A FRIGID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE WATERS. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL YIELD MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN MA WATERS. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT THESE WATERS WITH REDUCED VSBY.

MON...
WINDS BEGIN TO SLACKEN DURING THE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY DURING
THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

WED...ANTICIPATED DEEP COASTAL STORM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLE EASTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE UPWARDS OF 10 FEET FOR OPEN WATERS.

THURS...GALE FORCE NW WINDS WILL PERSIST IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL SYS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE INITIALLY BE UPWARDS OF 10 FEET
FOR OPEN WATERS...DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM / LOW MAXIMUM FOR THE PERIOD OF JANUARY 22ND
THROUGH JANUARY 25TH FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

BOSTON MA
SUN 23RD ...  -6 1882 / 13 1882
MON 24TH ... -13 1882 /  8 1907
TUE 25TH ...  -5 1935 / 14 1945

PROVIDENCE RI
SUN 23RD ... -13 1976 / 10 1976
MON 24TH ...  -9 1907 /  9 1907
TUE 25TH ...  -3 1945 / 14 1945

HARTFORD/BDL CT
SUN 23RD ... -19 1961 /  7 1976
MON 24TH ... -19 1961 /  9 1907
TUE 25TH ...  -4 1945 / 11 1945

WORCESTER MA
SUN 23RD ... -13 1976 /  7 1976
MON 24TH ... -14 1948 /  4 1907
TUE 25TH ... -11 1935 / 10 1921

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM 11 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
519 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

CTZ002-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-NHZ011-015-241030-
HARTFORD CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
519 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WATCH.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND/OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST. THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ003-004-MAZ005-013>018-020-021-023-NHZ012-RIZ001>008-241030-
TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-DUKES MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
519 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THERE
IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REACH 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND/OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST. THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ006-007-019-022-024-241030-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
NANTUCKET MA-
519 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN CAPE
COD WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.

WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT FOR
EASTERN SHORES OF MASSACHUSETTS AND WESTERN CAPE COD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REACH 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO INTO MONDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN SHORES OF MASSACHUSETTS AND WESTERN CAPE COD.
THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND/OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST. THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ALONG CAPE COD ARE ENCOURAGE TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255-241030-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
519 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRESENT A REAL DANGER TO VESSELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRESENT A REAL DANGER TO VESSELS.

DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
SOME OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-233>237-256-241030-
BOSTON HARBOR-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
519 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRESENT A REAL DANGER TO VESSELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRESENT A REAL DANGER TO VESSELS.

DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
SOME OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1244 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

MAZ022-231945-
BARNSTABLE MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN
1244 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER CAPE...

A BAND OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WAS ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS THE
OUTER CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES. VISIBILITY WILL
BE REDUCED BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES AND AN INCH OR 2 ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CAPE...INCLUDING PROVINCETOWN...
TRURO...WELLFLEET AND ORLEANS. A FEW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT THE UPPER
CAPE...BUT THE STEADIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST OF HYANNIS.

ROADWAYS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY SO USE CAUTION IF
TRAVELING.