Special Weather Statement, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 4 PM SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPES 1500 J/KG IN THE INTERIOR FROM CT/RI THROUGH NE MA AND
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM. ISOLD SHOWERS OR
TSTM REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING GIVEN INSTABILITY...BUT
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND
WEAKEN AS IT GETS OVERTAKEN BY STRONGER COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING NW ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THINK MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD SPILL INTO FAR W ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE GT LAKES
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS W ZONES DURING THE
MORNING AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IS LIKELY ACROSS SNE AS AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA MOVE THROUGH. MODELS SHOW STRONG 850
MB FRONTOGENESIS ALIGNED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WHICH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT CHC CAPE/ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO
W ZONES IN THE MORNING...BUT BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WE FOLLOWED GFS/SREF TIMING...BULK OF SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENG WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
DAY SE COASTAL MA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ISOLD TSTM WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR.

THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
THU. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY NW ZONES THEN FALL THROUGH THE
60S AND INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SOME SUNSHINE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG WITH STILL WARM 850 MB TEMPS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA BEFORE TEMPS
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA AT 00Z SO
EXPECT BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SE MA AND
CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND TURNING MUCH COOLER WITH A PERIOD OF
GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN MIN
TEMPS IN THE 40S REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT LOWER 50S OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS.
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NW INTERIOR IF BL DECOUPLES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
  * QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

MODEL PREFERENCES...
14/12Z MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...REMAINING
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC TO
APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY.

DETAILS...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
LIGHT FLOW...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL.  HIGHS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD BUT ARE VERY CLOSE WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF ON
TUESDAY AND THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS
POINT.  TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOMEWHAT TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS IN HIGHER ELEVATION MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.
OTHERWISE...LOW PROB FOR AN ISOLD TSTM WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR.
SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LATE NIGHT PATCHY
IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...PATCHY IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CIGS. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST AND MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING
LATE BEHIND THE FROPA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES. NW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS LIKELY THU AFTERNOON BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH AND SWAN GUIDANCE IS RUNNING 1-2 FT TOO HIGH SO WE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST SEAS ACCORDINGLY. KEPT SEAS JUST BELOW SCA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY THU
EVENING AS STRONG CAA AND MIXING RESULTS IN NW GUSTS TO 30 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW 25
KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.  WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25 KTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-151945-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
336 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE
ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
ALONG OCEAN EXPOSED SOUTH FACING BEACHES ON FRIDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
EARLY FRIDAY AND/OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHWEST MA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-151945-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
336 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RLG

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