Special Marine Warning 5, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

MAIN BAND OF STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN REMAINS ACROSS LONG ISLAND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN CT AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MA
AT 4 PM. THIS PRECIP SHIELD WAS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ALOFT. THIS AREA SHOULD DRIFT NORTH AS OCCLUDED
LOW OVER VA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MA SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. ANY GIVEN SHOWER HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES...MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ALONG WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES /LARGE DROPLETS/ IN PLACE WITH WARM
CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 3 KM/10KFT.

ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING TONIGHT SHOULD BE MINOR/NUISANCE URBAN-
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS CT/RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA.

COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONSHORE E-NE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND ADJOINING LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHICH BASICALLY
ENCOMPASSES HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
HAMPDEN/HAMPSHIRE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM THAT
WARM CONVEYOR BELT /WCB/ RAINS WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT...WITH A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WIND SPEEDS AND PWAT ANOMALIES WITHIN THE WCB ONLY
ON THE ORDER OF +1 TO +2 STD HOWEVER THE SLOW MOVEMENT/DURATION
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA GIVEN THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH LOW LEVEL SE
INFLOW. IN ADDITION WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT IN THE FORM OF MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES FOR
ENHANCED RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WED SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS
CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN RI.

AS FOR TEMPS...BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AND SIDED WITH THE COOLER IN
HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED METNAM AND MAVMOS.

WED NIGHT...
HEAVY RAIN AXIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO RI AND EASTERN
MA. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE AS MID LEVEL THETA-E LAPSES
BECOME NEGATIVE AND COLUMN REMAINS MOIST OR NEAR SATURATED. ALSO
RRQ OF UPPER LEVEL JET SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. COULD BE A
DIFFICULT EARLY MORNING COMMUTE THU ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MAIN POINTS...
*COOL AND DREARY WEATHER LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND
*HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
*A DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK?
*ANOTHER WET WEATHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
FAIRLY SUCCINCT MDL SOLNS AND GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE 0Z/12Z ECMWF/12Z
NAM AND THUS WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE THREE FOR THE THURS INTO FRI
PD. THEREAFTER PLACED GREATER WEIGHT ON THE 0Z/12Z ECMWF SOLN OVER
THE 12Z GFS OUTPUT AS FELT THE GFS WAS BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK PROCESSES. NEVERTHELESS THE TRENDS BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF NEARLY MIRROR ONE ANOTHER. THUS WITH THE LATER PD
BEGINNING SATURDAY BLENDED ECMWF WITH GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
WARM-CORE STACKED LOW ROTATES THRU THE NERN CONUS WITH MAIN OCCLUDED
FRNT LIFTING NWD THRU NEW ENGLAND...FOLLOWED BY THE CENTER OF THE SFC
OCCLUDED LOW APPROACHING THE RGN FROM THE SW OVRNGT. WILL SEE
CONTINUED CHCS FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
MUCAPES RANGE AOA 400 J/KG IN A RGN OF FAVORABLE DYNAMIC LIFT AND
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRNT. WILL SEE SELY
ONSHORE FLOW...SLIGHTLY FASTER ALOFT AROUND 30-40 KTS OUT OF THE SE
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRNT WHICH WILL LEND TO A STRONG
MOISTURE FEED INLAND. COULD DEAL WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS...
ESP WITH PREV MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRNT...AS
PWATS RANGE 1-1.5 INCHES VIA THE MESO-NAM. HAVE MADE MENTION FOR
SUCH CHCS IN THE FCST. ALL FACTORS COMBINED LEAD TO CONTINUED
FLOODING CONCERNS...ESP FOR ERN FCST RGNS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
OTHERWISE...WINDS TO BECOME LGT AND VRB INTO THE EVNG UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. MAY SEE SOME DRIER AIR WRAP INTO THE SYS POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOWARDS EVNG ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE OCCLUDED FRNT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT AS A PLETHORA OF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SYS...AND SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
LENDING TO AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD. WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY
COOL AND BELOW CLIMO.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
STACKED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS EWD FROM THE WASH DC VICINITY TO JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND SCTD SHOWERS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE...STILL CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY THRU THE RGN.
ALSO OCCLUDING LOW AND DRIER AIR INTO THE SYS COULD ALLOW SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY. LGT AND VRB SFC WINDS YET WITH A
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT THRU THE RGN ALLOWING FOR THOSE CONTINUED POP CHCS WITH SCTD
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE RGN. WILL EDGE AGAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND BELOW CLIMO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
STACKED LOW CONTINUES A SLOW DANCE EWD AND OUT TO SEA. LGT AND VRB
SFC WINDS SLOWLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE N/NW. WILL SEE RAINS DISSIPATE
E AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE WRN ZONES AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR THE RGN WITH
SCTD SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND
EDGE AGAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS NW FLOW WILL USHER
COOLER AIR SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUING TO PRESS
EWD AND WELL OFFSHORE. LGT AND VRB FLOW AND EXPECTING CLEAR
CONDITIONS AS WAA BUILDS ALOFT OUT OF THE SW. EXPECTANT +8-10C
H85/H925 TEMPS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS AT THE SFC.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SLINKS OFF TO THE E. MAY SEE SOME MID TO UPR
LVL CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TO
INVADE NRN FCST RGNS AROUND THE MAIN SFC HIGH POISED OVER THE SERN
CONUS. NOT CONFIDENT ON POP CHCS FOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THE TIMEFRAME
AS MDL SOLNS NOT WELL ALIGNED IN HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION.
SOME HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDING THRU THE RGN THRU THE PD SO
WILL GO SLGT CHC POPS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUE. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING
WARMER CONDITIONS AS WAA BUILDS OUT OF THE SW.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
FAIRLY GOOD AMOUNT OF FCST UNCERTAINTY...BUT TRENDS AMONGST MDL
SOLNS HINTING AT A SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON AS IT APPEARS AN AREA OF
LOW PRES AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE RGN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MEDIUM...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS AT LEAST INTO EARLY THU ALONG WITH PERSISTENT E/NE WINDS. FOCUS
FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL SHIFT FROM NYC AREA AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...INTO CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA AND
POSSIBLY RI OVERNIGHT...THEN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WED AFTN AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT. HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
TSTMS WILL LIKELY COME WED NIGHT INTO THU AM.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR CONTINUING IFR CIGS AND
MVFR VSBYS UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THU. E-NE WIND CONTINUE. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED AFTN/WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE MVFR/IFR. LOW CIGS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT TERMINALS
GRADUALLY LIFTING AND IMPROVING W TO E THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE
TEMPORARY PERIODS OF VFR. SCTD SHOWERS...PATCHY DRIZZLE...AND FOG
WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR VSBY IMPACTS...AND IT CANT BE RULED OUT THAT
DURING THE EVNG PERIODS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING ACROSS TERMINALS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS LIFR.

SUNDAY...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN MA WATERS. VSBY 1-3 NM IN SHOWERS AND FOG. ISOLATED
TSTM POSSIBLE.

WED AND WED NIGHT...
EAST WINDS 20-25 KT CONTINUE ALONG WITH ROUGH OCEAN WATERS. HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM WEST TO EAST. VSBY WILL BE POOR.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...

SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK OUT OF THE NORTHEAST REMAINING BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS...YET THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF SOME OF THE
NORTHEAST WINDS TO GUST AROUND 20 KTS SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE SEAS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD INTO FRIDAY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW THE ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. LESS RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST MA
BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CT RVR VALLEY
GIVEN PERSISTENT SE INFLOW. LOCAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS REGION OF
3-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THU WITH RAIN MOVING OFFSHORE
LATER THU.

SINCE THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD...FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT WE DO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LOWER CT RIVER AND OTHER SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO SPLASHOVER
ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 FT OF STORM SURGE TO THE
GUIDANCE AS TIDAL GAGES INDICATE GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING ABOUT 0.5 FT
TOO LOW. ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND SHORT OF COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002-008-009.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/NOCERA
MARINE...SIPPRELL/NOCERA
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA

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