Small Craft Advisory 120, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

719 
WHUS71 KBOX 070357
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1057 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

...GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

.A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER CAPE COD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY DEEPENING AS IT PROGRESSES. THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL POTENTIALLY USHER GALE FORCE GUSTS AND
GENERATE HIGH SEAS ON THE WATERS.

ANZ230-071200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0120.111208T0900Z-111208T2000Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
1057 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ236-071200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0120.111208T0900Z-111208T2000Z/
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
1057 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-071200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0024.111208T0900Z-111208T1800Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
1057 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-071200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0024.111208T0900Z-111208T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1057 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-071200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0024.111208T0900Z-111208T1800Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
1057 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-071200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0024.111208T0900Z-111208T2000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
1057 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ251-071200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0024.111208T0900Z-111208T1800Z/
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
1057 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

344 
WHUS71 KBOX 070929
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

.A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE BAY OF FUNDI THURSDAY MORNING. 
A BRIEF SOUTHWEST GALE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER NORTHWEST GALE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING OVER ALL WATERS. 

ANZ230-071730-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SC.Y.0120.111208T0900Z-111208T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0043.111208T0900Z-111208T1500Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
429 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ236-071730-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SC.Y.0120.111208T0900Z-111208T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0043.111208T0900Z-111208T1500Z/
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
429 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-071730-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0024.111208T0900Z-111208T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0043.111208T0900Z-111208T1800Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
429 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-071730-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0024.111208T0900Z-111208T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0043.111208T0700Z-111208T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
429 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
  KT SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST. SEAS 10 TO 15 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-071730-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0024.111208T0900Z-111208T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0043.111208T0900Z-111208T1800Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
429 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
  45 KT SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-071730-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0024.111208T0900Z-111208T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0043.111208T0900Z-111208T2000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
429 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ251-071730-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0024.111208T0900Z-111208T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0043.111208T0900Z-111208T1800Z/
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
429 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
FIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY BRING A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
EVENT TO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1 PM UPDATE...

SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST. THE PREV DISCUSSION VERY MUCH
APPLIES. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN DOWNSTREAM WILL PROGRESS THRU THE FCST
RGN THIS AFTN INTO EVNG. LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN
WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCED VSBYS AND LOW CIGS.

SW GUSTS FOR THE S/E SHORELINES AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE UPDATED
WIND GUST GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCUSSION...

WEAK SHRTWVS THRU THE MID-UPR LVL SW FLOW INVIGORATING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRNT PRESENTLY POISED SW
TO NE FROM WV THRU CENTRAL VT-NH-ME. NO QUESTION ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...GREATER UNCERTAINTY LIES IN BOTH SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL SPECIFICS OF LOW-MID LVL FORCING.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS. IT HAS ALREADY AT LEAST SHOWERED
A FEW ONE-HUNDREDTHS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST RGN THIS MORNING AND
UNDOUBTEDLY MORE IS ON THE WAY WITH SUCH A RICH THETAE AXIS ALOFT.
INCREASING COVERAGE THIS AFTN INTO EVNG WITH THE APPROACHING SFC
TO MID-LVL COLD FRNT.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER ISSUE OF CONCERN...WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
WAA ALOFT...SFC BOUNDARY LYR WILL BE WELL CAPPED /SEE 12Z LOCAL
UPR AIR SOUNDINGS/. ALTHO LIMITATIONS...MECHANICAL MIXING DOWN OF
MOMENTUM IS STILL PSBL...H925 WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. STRONG GUSTS OF
2O TO 25 MPH BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CAPE. HAVE
BUMPED GUSTS UP ACCORDINGLY. MAY NEED TO UPDATE FOR THE INNER
WATERS AND POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ON TRACK. WILL SEE TEMPS INTO THE LOW 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE RGN WITH MID-UPR 50S N/W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MUCH CLOUDINESS AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AS SFC FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS THRU REGION
UNDERNEATH MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. POPS ARE FAIRLY HIGH AS MEASURABLE
RAFL LIKELY IN THE COURSE OF 12 HOURS BUT EXPECT THE RAIN TO BE
LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK SFC WAVES MAY
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAIN BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN MODEL
ABILITY TO RESOLVE THESE FEATURES. NAM AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS
WOULD LEAD ONE TO SUSPECT THAT SUCH AN AREA MAY PASS THRU THIS
EVENING BUT UNSURE OF EXTENT AND TIMING. DO HAVE A PERIOD OF
CATEGORICAL POPS ON A SW TO NE AXIS SLIDING EASTWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NW TO SE
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE
UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPS AT LEAST FOR NOW. SW FLOW AHEAD OF POSITIVE
TILT ELONGATED TROF OVERRIDING COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR BEHIND FRONT
SUGGESTS PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THRU WED AND A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY SE ZONES. THERE MAY
BE NOTICEABLE DRYING FOR LATER WED DUE TO A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROF AND SFC LOW EXPECTED TO
IMPACT AREA IN FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEG COOLER IN MANY LOCATIONS WED BEHIND THE
FRONT. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY PTYPE ISSUES THRU WED AS
DEEPER THERMAL COOLING NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 00Z THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

MODEL DISCUSSION AND PREFERENCES...
STILL QUITE A BIT OF SOLUTION SPREAD AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE THIS
MORNING. BIG PROBLEM REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF AN
H5 SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH ITS SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND
TRACKING NE UP THE COAST AROUND MID WEEK. LOOKED LIKE THE 00Z
NAM/12Z ECWMF OP RUNS ALONG WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LOW PRES AS IT MOVES UP NEAR OR
JUST INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT KEEPING THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE FLOW. THEY WERE ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE GFS WAS WEAKER AND TOO
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE CANADIAN GGEM WAS TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO WEAK.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z EC BRINGS THE LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER...EVEN PASSING ACROSS CAPE COD OR NANTUCKET. WE SHALL
SEE...BUT TIMING HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT...IN THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRES FOR LATE WEEK. BEYOND THAT...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS AGAIN FOR A POSSIBLE WEAK SYSTEM SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
MAIN FEATURE WILL BE LOW PRES WORKING OUT OF THE CAROLINAS. OF
COURSE...THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE ALL IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND. RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH UP THE COAST.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CURRENT THINKING HAS THIS LOW PASSING CLOSE TO
OR INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY GIVE A PRETTY DECENT
SIZED SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THIS LOW IS NOT RAPIDLY DEEPENING. SNOW
GROWTH REGIONS ARE FAIRLY GOOD BUT DO NOT LAST VERY LONG.
MAINLY...THE PROGRESSION JUST DOES NOT ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL
EVENT...AT LEAST LOOKING AT THINGS RIGHT NOW. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...SNOWFALL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AROUND
1-3 INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS...MONADNOCKS AND E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET
DURING THE CHANGE OVER...WHICH MIGHT PROMPT AN ADVISORY. BIG PROBLEM
IS WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ASPECT.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE QPF. MODELS HAD A BIG
VARIANCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THIS PARAMETER...WITH THE NAM
COMING IN WITH AROUND 1 INCH MELTED PRECIP FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...
WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM WERE MUCH LESS AS ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH THEIR
TRACKS. FELT THE NAM WAS OVERDONE WITH THIS CONSIDERING THE LOW/S
PROGRESSION..THOUGH DID NOTE PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ALSO FELT THE BULLSEYE WAS TOO FAR NORTH. LIKED THE HPC
GUIDANCE ON THIS ASPECT...WHICH PUSHED THE BULLSEYE ACROSS N CT/RI
SE MA BUT STILL MENTIONED POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH OF PRECIP. THIS
SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH MIGHT SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW AT THE
TAIL END LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE FORECASTED LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS...AROUND 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WHICH WILL NOT GIVE A WHOLE LOT OF SNOW CONSIDERING A
PROBABLE 8 OR 10:1 SNOW TO RAIN RATIO. IN ANY EVENT...COULD BE A
MESSY THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES
WITH THIS EVOLVING COASTAL STORM.

LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY AROUND MIDDAY
THURSDAY...BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE COAST. EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. MAY START TO SEE CLOUDS MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH APPEARS TO BE A DRY SYSTEM IN THE MAINLY
W UPPER FLOW.

SATURDAY...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WEAK LOW PRES MAY
FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW MODELS
EVEN TRY TO PUSH MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE E COAST. FOR NOW...HAVE
MENTIONED LOW CHANCE POPS FROM ABOUT KMHT-KOWD-KEWB EASTWARD...BUT
DO NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THIS. HOWEVER...WITH
COLDER AIR IN PLACE...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW EXCEPT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE RATHER QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT MODELS DO BRING HIGH PRES BACK S OF THE
REGION...SO SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL ON SUNDAY WITH A BIT MILDER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

REST OF TODAY...
18Z UPDATE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS. IN
BREVITY...MVFR/IFR CIGS. HAVE GONE TEMPO WITH DOWNSTREAM BATCH OF
RAIN FROM 0620Z TO 0703Z FIGURING IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SFC COLD FRNT
PROGRESSING S/E SLOWLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH THERE SHOULD BE AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...AND AS NIGHT FALLS...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONDENSE CAUSING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE. S/SW WINDS...GUSTY FOR
THE S/E TERMINALS AND HIGHER TERRAIN /ORH/. WILL READDRESS TAFS
WITH 21Z TAF ISSUANCE.

TONIGHT...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS. AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRNT. ANTICIPATING SHRA AND MFVR/IFR
VSBYS WITH IFR CIGS ALONG AND AHEAD...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE
REAR AS SFC WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NLY. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE S SHORELINE.

WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SFC COLD FRNT TO SLOWLY DRAG S OF THE NEW
ENGLAND SHORELINE. ANTICIPATING MVFR/IFR TO LINGER FOR SE COAST
TERMINALS...WHEREAS THRU THE INTERIOR THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL
LIFTING THRU THE DAY WITH THE N/NW INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AT THE SFC.
VSBYS IMPROVING ACCORDINGLY TO THE REAR OF THE COLD FRNT...NOT THE
CASE ALONG AND AHEAD.

KBOS TERMINAL...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HAVE SPED IFR CIGS INTO THE TERMINAL A BIT
FASTER AND HAVE TIMED FOR THE ONCOMING BATCH OF RA TOWARDS EVNG...
HENCE THE BKN CIGS 005 IN THE TEMPO GROUP. THEREAFTER SHRA WITH
IFR CIGS...BUT KEPT VSBYS ABOVE MVFR. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING THRU
THE DAY ON WED WITH THE COLD FRNT TO THE S AND N/NW SFC FLOW
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR AT THE SFC.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
POINT...RAIN WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW-SE OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN. LOW PROBABILITY
OF BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET DURING THE
CHANGEOVER. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW THE INTERIOR AND
FOG SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL PUSH OFFSHORE.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
W-E AS PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE VFR BY MIDDAY.
LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY VFR...BUT MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR IN
WIDELY SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PRES MAY FORM ON THIS FRONT
E OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...WHICH MAY PUSH SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS INTO E COASTAL AREAS. NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
SW WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KTS OVER THE S WATERS. MAY NEED TO BE MORE
CONCERNED WITH 5 FOOT SWELLS TOWARDS THE INNER WATERS...AND
POTENTIAL GUSTS AS WELL. WILL NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR THE
INNER WATERS JUST YET AS CONFIDENCE WANES. WILL MONITOR INTO
MIDDAY. NOT CONFIDENT HOW QUICKLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE INTO
EVNG...YET WITH THE COLD FRNT APPROACHING THE WATERS...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LGT AND VRB.

WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIPPAGE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF THE WATERS THE
SEAS SHOULD RELAX DURING WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE COASTAL LOW AFT THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AREAS OF VERY LOW VSBYS IN FOG TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SE OF NANTUCKET
BRINGING A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS AND SEAS 5 FT OR HIGHER
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...EVT/THOMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

CTZ004-MAZ006-007-012>024-RIZ001>008-070915-
WINDHAM CT-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
410 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...
POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH...IS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS LOW REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ002-003-MAZ002>005-008>011-026-NHZ011-012-015-070915-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
410 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF ONE TO
THREE INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...INTERIOR
NORTHEASTERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS LOW REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-070915-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
410 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.