Small Craft Advisory 117, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

282 
WHUS71 KBOX 241134
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
634 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

ANZ232-241500-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-111124T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-111124T1500Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-
634 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
  SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ254-255-241945-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-111124T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-111125T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
634 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-241945-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-111124T2000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
634 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ256-241500-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-111124T1500Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
634 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-233>235-237-241500-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-111124T1500Z/
CAPE COD BAY-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
634 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 
  KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DUNTEN

842 
WHUS71 KBOX 241534
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1034 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

ANZ250-251-242345-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-111124T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SW.Y.0055.111124T1534Z-111125T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
1034 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
  SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID
SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING
WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK
MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED.
REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

&&

$$

ANZ256-241700-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SW.Y.0055.111124T1534Z-111124T1700Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1034 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY. 

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID
SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING
WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK
MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED.
REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

&&

$$

ANZ254-255-242345-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-111125T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
1034 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
FIELD

109 
WHUS71 KBOX 241719
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1219 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011

ANZ256-241830-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SW.Y.0055.000000T0000Z-111124T1700Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1219 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS EXPIRED...

SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
WATERS FROM MONTAUK TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO 20 NM
SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND.

$$

ANZ254-255-250000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-111125T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
1219 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
  25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-250000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SW.Y.0055.000000T0000Z-111125T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
1219 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID
SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING
WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK
MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED.
REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

&&

$$
FIELD

678 
WHUS71 KBOX 242128
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011

ANZ254-255-250300-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-111125T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SW.Y.0055.000000T0000Z-111125T0300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
428 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID
SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING
WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK
MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED.
REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

&&

$$

ANZ256-250530-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SW.Y.0056.111125T1700Z-111126T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
428 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY
TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY. 

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID
SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING
WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK
MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED.
REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-250000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SW.Y.0055.000000T0000Z-111125T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
428 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID
SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING
WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK
MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED.
REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

&&

$$
FIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1017 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH COOL BUT DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAKING ROOM FOR DRY
AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY
OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT MAY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH IS SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS....AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
LINGERING WEST OF THE TROUGH A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. WE WILL SLOW THE CLEARING IN THE GRIDS A LITTLE...BUT
MAINTAIN THE CLEARING TREND BY MORNING. THAT IS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...JUST MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS.

WIND ADVISORY FOR EAST COAST OF MASS EXPIRED AT 9 PM...OBSERVED
WINDS SUPPORT THIS. STILL GUSTING NEAR 40 KNOTS AT NANTUCKET AND
IN THE 30S OVER CAPE COD. WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT THE TREND IS TOWARD
DIMINISHING WIND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THU...

NICE DAY COMING UP WITH GOOD HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
THIS SHOULD YIELD ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE SOME OCEAN
EFFECT STRATO-CU MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT BLYR MIXING. SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MU40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
U30S TO L40S FOR THE HILLY TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST
NH. DESPITE THE COOL TEMPS WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TOMORROW.

SIDED WITH THE WARM METNAM GUID GIVEN THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THU NIGHT...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. NOT AS COLD AS BLYR WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY ALONG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL DISCUSSION AND PREFERENCES...
CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS
TIMEFRAME THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL STRONG HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTING UP ACROSS
THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. CONTINUED TO MENTION TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH STRONG AND PERSISTENT SW SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

HOWEVER...MODELS HAVING AN INCREASING LARGE VARIANCE IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS BEYOND SUNDAY. MOST MODELS RUNS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES STILL
INDICATING A DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE H5 LONG WAVE
TROUGH ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. SLOWLY INTO THE E. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE LONG WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S. COAST...
WHICH IS LIKELY WHY THIS FRONT IS TENDING TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. ONE MODEL...THE ECMWF...HAS GONE IN A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT DIRECTION...WHICH IS WORRISOME. OVER THE LAST TWO OP
RUNS...IT HAS BLASTED THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN CUTTING
OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SE U.S...IN EFFECT TRYING TO SPLIT THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT THE ECMWF IS
A GOOD PERFORMER...AND CAN SOMETIMES SIGNAL PATTERN CHANGES BEFORE
OTHER MODELS. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/GGEM
AND GFS ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE HPC SOLUTION...FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DO NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLUTION.

FRIDAY TO SUNDAY...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S.
COAST EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND VERY MILD WEATHER. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND +9C TO +10C ON
FRIDAY...THEN +6C TO +8C BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH MAY START
TO COOL OFF A BIT ACROSS S NH/N MA LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE ON CONTINUED SW FLOW...EXPECT
BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS TO BE VERY MILD...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

CLOUDS WILL START WORKING INTO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SATURDAY...THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING IN ON THE MILD SW FLOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...
AS MODELS START TO VARY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A
BLENDED SOLUTION OF THE GFS/GGEM AND ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO W NY STATE/PA SUN
NIGHT...WITH SOME LEAD MOISTURE WORKING IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. CONTINUED WITH RATHER HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP POSSIBLE...IF
THINGS WORK OUT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MAY EVEN SEE ANOTHER WAVE FORM
ON THIS FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK..WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL...
ALREADY ENHANCED WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION ON A LONG S-SW FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH ON TUE...THOUGH
TIMING IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. CONTINUED TO CARRY VERY MILD TEMPS THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME WITH THE S-SW SURFACE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY
HIGHER. S-SE WINDS MAY ALSO START TO PICK UP MON NIGHT-TUESDAY AS
FRONT APPROACHES WITH INCREASING PRES GRADIENT...THEN THE FRONT
PUSHING OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...
AT THIS POINT...WENT ALONG TOTALLY WITH THE HPC BLENDED SOLUTION OF
ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT
PUSHES INTO QUEBEC...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE CARRIED A
RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

TONIGHT...
LINGERING MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...VFR CIGS WILL LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVER MILDER OCEAN WATERS. WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

WED...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. ANY GUSTY WINDS EARLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND 15Z AND ALSO BECOME
WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

WED NIGHT...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND WEST WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME BREAKING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY AT 9 PM AND THIS MAY REACH LOGAN AIRPORT BY
MIDNIGHT. IF IT DOESN/T...THEN CLEARING FROM CENTRAL NY
EXTRAPOLATES TO BOS AROUND 5 AM. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG
WITH GUSTY BUT DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS UP TO 30 KT. THU...VFR
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM N DURING THE MORNING TO WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS EARLY SUN
NIGHT...THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS. MAY SEE LOCAL
IFR VSBYS IN FOG SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
N GALE CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT AND FOR MOST OF
THE INNER WATERS UNTIL LATE NIGHT. WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE STILL
GUSTING AT OR NEAR 35 KNOTS. WINDS ARE LIGHTER IN BOSTON HARBOR
AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...SO MAIN CHANGE IS TO DOWNSHIFT TO SMALL
CRAFTS FOR THOSE WATERS FOR OVERNIGHT. ROUGH SEAS ESPECIALLY
EASTERN MA WATERS.

THU/THU NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE TN VLY TO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS
RESULTS IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. GOOD VSBY EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...
W-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT THROUGH SAT...THEN BACKING TO SE ON
SUN. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT AT TIMES ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
SE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FETCH SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 5 OR 6 FT SUN
NIGHT...THEN UP TO 8 FT MONDAY MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM LAST NIGHT AND TODAY GENERALLY RANGED FROM 1 TO
2 INCHES...WITH SOME TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY ON CAPE COD.
THIS RAINFALL PRODUCED SOME RISES IN AREA STREAMS AND SMALL
RIVERS...THE SMALLER RIVERS HAVE GENERALLY CRESTED AND HAVE BEGUN TO
RECEDE.  A FEW GAGED SMALL RIVERS CRESTED JUST ABOVE ACTION
STAGE...SUCH AS BUNNELL BROOK IN BURLINGTON CT AND THE QUABOUG RIVER
AT WEST BRIMFIELD MA. LARGER TRIBUTARY AND MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE STILL
RISING OR NEARING CREST. A FEW GAGED TRIBUTARY RIVERS CLIMB ABOVE
ACTION STAGE SUCH AS THE PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON...BUT FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MAINSTEM MERRIMACK AND CONNECTICUT FORECAST
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE.

WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS AND
STREAMS TIME TO RECEDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MA SHORELINE FOR THU
MORNING HIGH TIDE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. NOT
MUCH OF A SURGE BUT RESIDUAL SURGE COUPLED WITH LINGERING HIGH SEAS
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS OF THE EASTERN MA SHORELINE FROM CAPE ANN SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD. EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THIS
MORNING/S HIGH TIDE WITH TOTAL WATER LEVELS LOWER AND LESS WAVE
ACTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
934 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>014-017-018-020-021-026-NHZ011-012-015-
RIZ001>008-241445-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
934 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ007-015-016-019-241445-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
934 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ022-024-241445-
BARNSTABLE MA-NANTUCKET MA-
934 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL RESULT IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ023-241445-
DUKES MA-
934 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL RESULT IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ231-232-250-254>256-241445-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
934 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ233>235-237-251-241445-
VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
934 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-236-241445-
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
934 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.