Gale Watch 28, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

584 
WHUS71 KBOX 262311
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
611 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

ANZ231-232-270715-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0130.000000T0000Z-111226T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-
611 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
  KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-256-270715-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0130.000000T0000Z-111226T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
611 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
  KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ254-255-270715-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0130.000000T0000Z-111227T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
611 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ233>235-237-270715-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
611 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-270715-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
611 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

086 
WHUS71 KBOX 270315
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1015 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

ANZ254-255-271115-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0130.000000T0000Z-111227T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
1015 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
  KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-256-271115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1015 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-271115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
1015 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-271115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
1015 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$
FIELD

242 
WHUS71 KBOX 270903
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

ANZ250-251-254>256-271715-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0047.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
403 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTH WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-271715-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0047.111227T2300Z-111228T1000Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
403 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTH WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-271715-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0028.111227T2200Z-111228T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0047.111228T0000Z-111228T0900Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
403 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
FIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1255 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THEN
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WORK WEEK IS A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS.  THE EXCEPTION WERE PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER-CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE LOW DECEMBER SUN
ANGLE WILL PRETTY MUCH CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
WILL YIELD DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL
QUICKLY THIS EVENING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BUT
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...
RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING. THEN RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. SO EXPECT
SUNSHINE TO FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PGRAD WILL BECOME SSW SO EXPECT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN
MAY ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF MA/CT AND POSSIBLY INTO RI 21Z-00Z.
00Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSE ON TIMING OF PRECIP. BASICALLY DID A BLEND
OF MAV/MET AND SREF HERE. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z/7PM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN POINTS...

* DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED
* HIGH PRES AND COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR WED NGT INTO THURS
* CLIPPER LOW BY WEEK/S END
* ANOTHER STORM SYS PSBL BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

MDL SOLNS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
THRU INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THRU THE RGN
QUICKLY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND PSBLY HEAVY RAINS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER.

BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH...

* THE TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW
BY 0Z WED SFC LOW IN PROXIMITY TO THE DELAWARE RVR VLY...QUICKLY
MOVING NEWD INTO VT BY 6Z /LEANING TOWARDS 0Z NAM AND 12Z/0Z ECMWF
SOLNS/. BY 12Z LOW IS INTO NRN ME /0Z ECMWF FASTEST OF SOLNS/ AND
OUT OF THE RGN BY 0Z. 0Z GFS MDL SOLN LAGS CONSENSUS. NAM/ECMWF
SOLNS CENTER AROUND AN AVG LOW PRES OF 990 MB DURING PASSAGE THRU
THE FCST RGN 3-6Z.

* COLLOCATED DYNAMICS AND THICKNESSES
MILDER AIR ENTRAINS THRU THE INTERIOR LENDING TO HIGHER THICKNESSES
AND A COMPLETELY WET SCENARIO /PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE W
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS CAA PROCEEDS IN WAKE OF THE SYS/. BEST
DYNAMICS AND DEEP ATMOS LIFT WILL BE COLLOCATED ALONG THE N/E
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW.

DISCUSSION...

LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM...THOUGH SOLNS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE H3 JET AXIS /NAM 10-15 KTS STRONGER/...THERE IS AGREEMENT OF
STRONG UPR LVL DIV /LEFT EXIT RGN OF THE H3 JET AXIS/ COUPLED WITH
ENHANCED ASCENT PER MAIN SHRTWV IMPULSE ROTATING THRU THE NEG TILTED
/OPEN WAVE/ TROF AXIS. THIS LENDS TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW
/PRES FALLS OF 15 MB PER 12-HR/ AND DEEP LYR LIFT. CONSEQUENTIALLY
STRONG ONSHORE LOW-MID LVL FLOW /AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
OF THE WIND/ RESULTS IN LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF A VERY RICH AND
MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH VALUES OF 320K AT H85-H7 BETWEEN 3-6Z
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. TROWALING OF THIS BELT INTO INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP AS RAIN WITH EXPECTED THUNDER CHCS FOR
ERN NEW ENGLAND. SYS EXITS OUT BEGINNING AROUND 12Z WED. COLD AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS THRU THE RGN ON THE BACKSIDE. DETAILS ON STORM
PASSAGE OUTLINED BELOW...

* TEMPS...
WILL GO WITH A NON-DIURNAL TREND /WARMING/ THRU 9Z WED. SFC COLD
FRNT THEREAFTER WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING AIDED BY LOW-MID LVL
CAA ON THE BACKSIDE SYS. ADVERTISING UPR 50S /PERHAPS NEAR 60/ FOR
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS 3-6Z...FALLING TO AROUND THE MID 20S BY DUSK
WED.

* WINDS...
BY 6Z H925 S/SELY FLOW AROUND 70 MPH INTO SE NEW ENGLAND IN A RGN
WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND LIKELY PRECIP DRAG. PRESENTLY
HAVE ADVERTISED WINDS SUSTAINED 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 MPH FOR S/SE
NEW ENGLAND ACROSS S RI AND SE MA. AFTER COLD FRNTL PASSAGE...WLY 35
TO 45 MPH FLOW AT H925...HAVE GONE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH...STRONGER MORESO ALONG THE E/SE NEW
ENGLAND SHORELINE AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS.

* RAINS...
SYS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...BUT STRONG DYNAMICS USHER A CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRNT. THE QUICK PASSAGE
WILL MAKE FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE UPWARDS OF AN INCH WITH PSBL
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT SPATIAL SPECIFICS
OF DEEP LYR LIFT AND COLLOCATED HEAVY RAINFALL.

* THREATS...
WITH A PROGRESSIVE SYS...FLOODING THREAT IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION
ALTHO STRONG WINDS...THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE SYS AND TIMING
COINCIDENT TO HIGH TIDE /ASTRONOMICALLY LOW/ MAY NOT LEAD TO ANY
COASTAL FLOODING THREAT. WILL STILL MONITOR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR S AND SE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND PSBLY
AGAIN WED IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRNT. WITH GALE WARNINGS OVER THE
WATERS EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT.

     REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FCST...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
STRONG CAA IN WAKE OF SYS /H925 -12 TO -14C BY 12Z THURS SE TO NW
WITH 30-35 KT FLOW...SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE 12Z ECMWF ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY/. LLVL INVERSION WITH ADVERTISED COLD 2M TEMPS MAY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE MIX DOWN TO SFC...BUT WILL GO MODEST W/NW FLOW. GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH AT DUSK WED DIMINISHING THRU THE NGT /AROUND 45 MPH
OVER THE WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING/. CLEARING YET WINDS WILL
LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THRU THE DAY LLVL LAPSE RATES
MIX TO H925 /-6 TO -8C...AGAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z
ECMWF SOLN/ WITH MID-LVL CLOUDS FILTERING THRU THE RGN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW /CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS/. MAX TEMPS UPR 20S TO LOW 30S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SLIDES THRU THE RGN OVRNGT WITH RETURN S/SWLY
FLOW BY MORN. LGT/VRB FLOW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS LENDS TO A
REPEAT COOL NGT. THRU THE DAY...INCREASING MID-LVL CLOUDS AS THE
CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES. CONSEQUENTIALLY LOW-MID LVL WRM FRNT LIFTS
THRU THE RGN /H925 TEMPS AVG -2C BY AFTN/. MAX TEMPS UPR 30S TO LOW
40S. CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHCS INCREASING INTO THE AFTN PD /INCREASING
SLY FLOW AND WAA WITH 25-35 MPH FLOW AT H925/. BEST POPS CHCS
COLLOCATED WITH THE LOW-MID LVL WARM FRNT /CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/. MAX TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TOWARDS EVNG WITH MODEST ONSHORE FLOW AND RISING DEWPOINTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
CLIPPER LOW INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN BY MORN /FCST RGN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR/. EXPECTING A MILD NGT WITH TEMPS FALLING BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES WITH CONTINUED S/SWLY ONSHORE FLOW /INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND
LLVL MOISTURE/. DURING THE DAY...LLVLS PSBLY MIXED /H925 TEMPS +2-4C
WITH 20 KT FLOW...PSBL GUSTS AT SFC/. CONTINUED CLOUDS AND SCTD
SHOWERS. CHC POPS...ONCE AGAIN THE BETTER WILL WHICH WILL BE ACROSS
THE N FCST RGNS IN PROXIMITY TO BETTER LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF A
TONGUE OF MODEST THETAE AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF
AXIS AND ATTENDANT SHRTWV IMPULSE /ENHANCED ASCENT/. TROF AXIS
ACROSS THE RGN BY AFTN COLLOCATED WITH THE COLD FRNT WHICH MOVES
OFFSHORE BY DUSK. MAX TEMPS MID-UPR 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SOME MINOR CAA BEHIND THE SYS...BUT RGN
REMAINING WITHIN A WARM REGIME. SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE RGN BY
SUNDAY MORN /LGT AND VRB FLOW MAY POSE AN EVNG OF GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING/. ECMWF HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK TROF AXIS AND ATTENDANT SHRTWV
THRU THE LONGWAVE MEAN FLOW...PREVAILING W/SWLY FLOW THRU THE PD.
H925 TEMPS +0-2C SO WILL GO LOW-MID 40S FOR MAX TEMPS WITH PSBL
ENHANCED S/SWLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO WEAK DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
DISTURBANCE FROM THE CANADIAN HIGHLANDS TROUGHS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN IS SUBJECT TO SPECULATION AS THE TREND IS
ATYPICAL OF THE PATTERN SEEN ACROSS THE NERN CONUS THE PAST FEW
MONTHS. BOTH 12Z ECMWF/0Z GFS TREND WITH CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE ERN
CONUS. WILL LEAN WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ADVERTISING AN INSIDE RUNNER AS
A SFC LOW LIFTING INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

REST OF TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  THE EXCEPTION WIL BE THE
HYA/ACK TERMINALS WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS RAIN SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN A PERIOD
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS MANY TERMINALS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS OFF THE DECK.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR/IFR. STRONG AND DYNAMIC STORM
SYSTEM LIKELY. CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE WITH ONSET OF RAINS...WITH
STRONG WINDS /POTENTIALLY DAMAGING/ OUT OF THE S/SE. COLD FRNTL
PASSAGE AROUND MORNING WITH STRONG WLY WINDS AND QUICKLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE RGN.
MODEST N/NW FLOW THRU THE INITIAL PERIOD...TAPERING WITH THE ONSET
OF HIGH PRES.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. HIGH PRES SLIDES E WITH A WARM FRNT
SLIDING THRU THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY FRI WITH RETURN SLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...
COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS ALL OPEN WATERS TODAY...SO SCA HEADLINES POSTED ON ALL
WATERS.  WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
WATERS FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT FELT SPEEDS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
SCA RANGE SO CONVERTED GALES TO SCA IN THIS REGION.  WINDS THEN
DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AS THE GALE CENTER MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT
AND SHIFTING TO THE SSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAILS.

TUE...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SSW WINDS INCREASING AS LOW PRES MOVES
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SE GALES POSSIBLE BY SUNSET ACROSS THE RI
WATERS ALONG WITH SHOWERS MOVING UP THE COASTLINE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE WITH THE ONSET OF A STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL USHER STRONG S/SELY FLOW /GALES LIKELY/ AND HIGH SEAS.
COLD FRNT THRU THE WATERS DURING THE MORNING TO MIDDAY PD USHERING
STRONG N/NWLY FLOW /GALES CONTINUING/.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
STRONG N/NW WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY TAPER THRU THE PERIOD...BUT
REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADV THRESHOLDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADV THRESHOLDS DURING THE
EVNG PD...BUT BUILD BACK TO 5 FEET OVER THE S WATERS WITH ENHANCING
SWLY FLOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1050 AM EST MON DEC 26 2011

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-271600-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
1050 AM EST MON DEC 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-271600-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1050 AM EST MON DEC 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH WESTERLY GALES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.