Areal Flood Advisory 113, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1248 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING...FAST MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...FOLLOWED
BY WINDY CONDITIONS THU MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY
WEATHER THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1145 PM UPDATE...

AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT HAVE NOTED A DRY SLOT OF SORTS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AS WELL AS BLOCK ISLAND AND SW RI AT 04Z.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES HAVE MOVED OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST AT
04Z. NOTE GUSTY N-NW WINDS AT KJFK...UP TO 27 KT.

PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT KAQW AS TEMPS DROPPED DOWN TO
33 DEGREES. ALSO NOTE MODERATE SNOW AND 1/2SM AT KDDH...AND MIXED
RA/SN AT KALB. HOWEVER...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 40S AT 04Z
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...WITH 38 DEGREES AT LEBANON NH.

ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPS WILL DROP OFF...THEN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ALSO...WITH THE QUICK EXIT OF THE PRECIP
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...WILL THERE BE WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
AMOUNTS OF SNOW AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

AT THIS POINT...NOW THAT THE PRECIP IS FINALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
SNOW GRIDS. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW PLACES THAT WILL
RECEIVE 2-4 INCHES...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MONADNOCKS AND BERKSHIRES...POSSIBLY INTO
THE WORCESTER HILLS.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SW JET PASSING ACROSS THE
S COASTAL AREAS. NOTING 45 KT WIND AT 2KFT FROM KCHH 00Z
SOUNDING...THOUGH THE KBOX VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWING NE WINDS UP
TO ABOUT 2KFT...THEN PICK UP AT AROUND 4-5KFT AT 35-40 KT FROM THE
SW...LIKELY DUE TO SHALLOW FRONT TO THE S BETWEEN KBOX AND KCHH.
NANTUCKET AND MARTHA/S VINEYARD STILL IN WARM SECTOR...TEMP AT
KMVY UP TO 60 DEGREES AND 57 AT KACK AROUND 02Z. HOWEVER...KOKX
VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWING LIGHTER SW WINDS...AROUND 20-30 KT
LIKELY DUE TO THE LOW NEARBY.

HAVE SENT UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES EARLIER TO BRING CONDITIONS
CURRENT AND ADJUST TEMPS/DEWPTS OVERNIGHT TO REFLECT CHANGING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
SHORT WAVE TROF AND ATTENDING COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM 09Z-12Z FROM WEST TO EAST. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE STRONG NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS GIVEN THE NW FETCH
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM COASTAL WATERS SUPPORTING GOOD MOMENTUM
MIXING.

EXPECTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE THU WITH DRY COLUMN AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER DESPITE THE SUNSHINE MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY
WINDS /ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING/ TO SUPPORT WIND CHILLS IN
THE 30S /20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/!

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN POINTS...
* HIGH PRES THURS NGT INTO FRI
* COLD FRNT THRU THE RGN FRI NGT INTO SAT
* RETURN OF HIGH PRES AND MORE SEASONABLE WX
* COASTAL STORM RAMPS UP OFF THE SERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEK

THURS NGT...
HIGH PRES WITH LIGHT W/SWLY FLOW. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR EVNG. ANTICIPATING VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS...ESP
FOR SNOW-COVERED LOCALES. MINS AROUND THE MID 20S. WILL ADVERTISE
UPR TEENS FOR THE N/W WITH SNOW COVER.

FRI AND FRI NGT...
WEAK DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS THRU THE RGN BY SAT MORN /SW WINDS BACKING
OUT OF THE NW/. LOW CONFIDENCE OF POP CHCS OVER THE ERN FCST RGN.
GONE A DRY FCST. YET DECENT MOISTURE FETCH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRNT. MIX TO H925 /AVG +0C/ WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
LEND TO MAX TEMPS AROUND THE LOW-MID 40S. MINS MID-UPR 20S...AROUND
LOW 20S FOR THE SNOW-COVERED N/W.

SAT AND SAT NGT...
RETURN OF HIGH PRES WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. LGT/VRB FLOW AT SFC.
SOME CLOUDS WITH FETCH OFF THE LAKES. WELL MIXED LLVLS TO H925 /AVG
-6C/ AND H85 /-8 TO -12C/ WITH PSBL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH. MAX
TEMPS UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. RADIATIONALLY COOLING THRU THE EVNG...NEED
TO BE CONCERNED LOCALES STILL SNOW COVERED. MINS AROUND THE LOW 20S
WITH PERHAPS MID TEENS EXTREME N/W. LOOKING LIKE THE COLDEST NGT OF
AUTUMN 2011.

SUN AND SUN NGT...
HIGH PRES MOVES EWD. RETURN S/SWLY FLOW WITH WARMING TREND ALOFT.
MIXING LIMITED TO H925 /AVG -6C/ WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS AROUND THE UPR 30S. MINS AROUND THE LOW-MID 20S.

MON AND MON NGT...
HIGH PRES STILL IN CONTROL WITH SW FLOW AND A WARMING TREND. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE
SERN CONUS. MDL SOLNS TREND IN KEEPING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE RGN
WITH A DEEPENING STORM OVER BERMUDA. MIXING LIMITED TO H925 /AVG
+0C/. INCREASING CLOUDS THRU THE PD FROM THE SE. MAX TEMPS AROUND
THE LOW 40S. MINS AROUND THE MID-UPR 20S.

TUE AND TUE NGT...
CONTINUED RIDGE WITH WELL-OFFSHORE STORM DEEPENING. SW FLOW REVERTS
OUT OF THE NW. HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. MIXING
LIMITED TO H925 /AVG +2C/ SO MAX TEMPS AROUND THE LOW 40S WITH
CONTINUED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.  MINS AROUND THE UPR
20S TO LOW 30S DUE TO INSOLATION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH 12Z...
MVFR/IFR REMAINS DOMINANT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. PERIODS OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH DOMINANT VSBYS MVFR. EXPECTING A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SN OVER
NW TERMINALS WITH LOWER VSBYS NEARING THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM N...TO NW...TO W TOWARD DAYBREAK.
STRONGEST WINDS AND 50 TO 60 KT LLWS OVER ERN MA/CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE SFC GUSTS 30 TO 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

TODAY..
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING MORNING HOURS FROM W
TO E WITH BEST CHANCE FOR REMAINING LOW CATEGORIES OVER ERN
MA/CAPE AND ISLANDS. W WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISH DURING THE
DAY. WIND GUSTS ONLY 20 TO 30 KT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS. WINDS
RAPIDLY DECREASE TO NEAR CALM LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...
IFR CIGS PERSIST WITH MVFR VSBYS IN MOD RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 12Z
TIMEFRAME. AFTER THAT VFR CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NW TO W THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KT POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME
AS A SFC COLD FNRT APPROACHES WITH SW FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD THAT
COULD USHER SOME MVFR CIGS. COLD FRNT THRU THE TERMINALS BY SAT
MORN WITH BLUSTERY NW FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...
EXPECT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM THE SW THROUGH AROUND 06Z-07Z
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS NEAR NANTUCKET AND MARTHA/S
VINEYARD...THEN WILL SHIFT TO W-NW. EXPECT GALES TO PICK UP ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS BY DAYBREAK.

THU...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD NW GALE THU MORNING WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING
THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...
SEAS TAPER TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADV 5 FT THRESHOLDS. W/NW FLOW
WEAKENING WITH ONSET OF HIGH PRES.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
SEAS BUILDING INTO THE LATE PD WITH INCREASING S/SWLY FLOW OVER THE
WATERS WITH APPROACHING SFC COLD FRNT. SW GUSTS OF AROUND 20-25 KTS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
NW FLOW TO THE REAR OF THE COLD FRNT WILL USHER COLD AIR AND STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING OVER THE OPEN WATERS ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT ADV THRESHOLDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY
SAT INTO SAT NGT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BASIN AVERAGE OF 1.5 - 2.0
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5
INCHES OR SO IF EMBEDDED TSTMS DEVELOP. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ARE CRANSTON RI ON THE PAWTUXET/MAYNARD
ON THE ASSABET RIVER/WILMINGTON ON THE SHAWSHEEN RIVER/FITCHBURG
ON THE NORTH NASHUA/SIMSBURY ON THE FARMINGTON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022>024.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-011>021.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ011-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ008.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>