Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
230 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF OVERALL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WEAK WAVE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS WITH
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING IN SW COLORADO. APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWN FROM
YESTERDAY WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE MIXING OUT WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING
INTO THE LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BASED
CAPES BELOW 500J/KG OVER THE FRONT RANGE BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE FAR
EAST WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LIKE YESTERDAY...STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OUT OVER THE PLAINS WITH RESULTING GUSTY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL. HAVE NUDGED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD
DUE TO THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

A BIT STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. AIRMASS STILL ON THE DRY SIDE BUT REMAINING ENOUGH
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS OVER
THE REGION. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT RH/WINDS SEEM
MARGINAL FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
TO TODAY'S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT
WILL SERVE MOSTLY TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED
DOWN SATURDAY BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS. EVEN THOUGH
THE AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CAPPED...WEAK TO
MODERATE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY COULD HELP SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MOVE AND FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO FIRE OFF A FEW STORMS
AS WELL...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT NEARS. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL COOL OFF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLE UPPER
70S TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SLIGHTLY NORTH AGAIN OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TO BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION. LONGER TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO POSSIBLY BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BACK DOWN TO NORMAL. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MEANDER UP THE BAJA AND ARRIVE RIGHT AROUND THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FRONT TO BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN WITH THE FIRST TWO FRONTS.  WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE MODELS EVOLUTIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AGAIN...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE VARIABLE
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS THEN RETURN TO
TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT FROM THE S-SW. MORE OF THE SAME
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...THEN THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STATUS AND LOWER
CEILINGS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED...QUICK MOVING STORMS AND GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL
EXPECTED.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1050 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

COZ030>051-011200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1050 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY
KEEPING HOT AIR OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE SAME OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY MAKE IT ONTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE WEAK WITH LIGHT RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTER A VERY WARM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING WILL COOL
THINGS OFF A BIT THEN ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL COOL
THINGS OFF TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND BREEZY
OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT LEAST
DUE TO THE COLD FRONTS CAPPING THE PLAINS.  CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRAY STORMS OVER THE PLAINS HOWEVER. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
336 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

COZ036-312200-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET CO-
336 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR

  SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
  WEST CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY

AT 336 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF DECKERS...OR 32 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DENVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PINE
GROVE...SPRUCEWOOD...SOUTH PLATTE...DECKERS AND BUFFALO CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS FROM THE STORM MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST. FURTHERMORE...THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW
AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS SUCH AS OUTDOOR PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS.

&&

LAT...LON 3948 10516 3928 10508 3922 10527 3943 10534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 242DEG 14KT 3932 10522