Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
315 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON INTERACTED WITH COOL MOIST AIRMASS OVER I-25 CORRIDOR AND
WELD COUNTY TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS
PRESENTLY MOVING INTO LOGAN AND MORGAN COUNTIES.  ENVIRONMENT IS
STRONGLY SHEARED WITH NORTHERLIES AT THE SURFACE AND WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  SOME STORMS HAVE GENERATED SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN MOVING OUT
OF THE MOUNTAINS.  DEW POINTS HAVE BEGUN DROPPING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONINUE INTO THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASE AFTER THE SUN SETS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE STATE OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE STATE FOR TUESDAY.  MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL SPREAD OVER THE
STATE TOMORROW.  HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...A MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL COME TO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE STATE ALONG WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TO ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW DAYS OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I76 AND EAST OF THE
METRO AREA...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY SOUTH OF I70. THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM AGAIN BUT WINDY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES CLOSER TO BRING STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS WILL IMPACT THE SNOWMELT...SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION BELOW.  FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...SOUTH PARK AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY START CROPPING UP AS FUELS
GET DRIER.  MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE SOUTH PARK...THE SOUTHERN
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE AREAS MAINLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY  NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON.
&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT OF DENVER AREA BY 5 PM.  CIGS
WILL THEN REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT.  GUSTY WEST WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE DENVER AREA BY 6 PM WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
CALMING DOWN.  SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON OVER KDEN.
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR AT KBJC.  LESS WEATHER AND WINDS FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW MELT DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. LOW LYING AREAS NEAR RIVERS AND CREEKS CAN
EXPECT FLOODING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KDRBY/KRIEDERMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1107 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

COZ030>051-311200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1107 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE ON THE PLAINS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.  SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.  THE WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING...WITH A SLOWER DECREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL BRING DRY AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THESE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE RAPID SNOW MELT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AS A
RESULT...THE ONSET OF HEAVY RUNOFF AND FLOODING ON MANY CREEKS AND
STREAMS IS EXPECTED. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN CENTRAL
PLAINS...THEN OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DANKERS/KRIEDERMAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
332 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             18 SE ROGGEN            39.99N 104.13W
05/30/2011  M0.75 INCH       ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0318 PM     HAIL             15 SE ROGGEN            40.02N 104.17W
05/30/2011  M0.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0315 PM     HAIL             12 SE ROGGEN            40.05N 104.21W
05/30/2011  M0.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0257 PM     HAIL             12 SE KEENESBURG        39.99N 104.36W
05/30/2011  M0.75 INCH       ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0226 PM     HAIL             KEENESBURG              40.11N 104.52W
05/30/2011  M1.25 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0219 PM     HAIL             1 ENE KEENESBURG        40.11N 104.50W
05/30/2011  M1.25 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BROKEN CAR WINDOWS AND SHREDDED LEAVES

&&

FREDIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
334 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

COZ044-302215-
MORGAN COUNTY CO-
334 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR

  MORGAN COUNTY

AT 334 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF ADENA
SCHOOL...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MORGAN. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WIGGINS...
WELDONA...TWELVE-MILE CORNER...ORCHARD...LOG LANE VILLAGE...JACKSON
RESERVOIR...HOYT...GOODRICH...FORT MORGAN...BRUSH...ANTELOPE
SPRINGS...ADENA SCHOOL AND ADENA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE WEAK...SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. THESE WEAK TORNADOES ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MINOR DAMAGE SO IF A TORNADO IS OBSERVED MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10357 4002 10362 4001 10413 4044 10412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 180DEG 0KT 4015 10391

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
335 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

COZ048-302215-
LOGAN COUNTY CO-
335 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR

  WESTERN LOGAN COUNTY

AT 335 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAWNEE
PASS...OR 13 MILES WEST OF STERLING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WILLARD...
WESTPLAINS...PEETZ...PAWNEE PASS...PADRONI...NORTH STERLING
RESERVOIR...MERINO...LOGAN CORNERS...ILIFF...ATWOOD AND STERLING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE WEAK...SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. THESE WEAK TORNADOES ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MINOR DAMAGE SO IF A TORNADO IS OBSERVED MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 10321 4098 10298 4047 10314 4046 10344
      4054 10344 4055 10353 4098 10357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 214DEG 28KT 4070 10342