Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

780 
WGUS65 KBOU 141805
FFABOU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1205 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER COLORADO TODAY AND THE STAGE
IS SET FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. VERY MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO BECAUSE OF THE REPEATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OCCUR...RAPID RUNOFF WILL OCCUR SINCE THE SOIL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
HOLD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL INCLUDE THE FOURMILE BURN AREA IN
CENTRAL BOULDER COUNTY WHERE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING
DEMONSTRATED HOW RAPIDLY FLOODING PROBLEMS CAN DEVELOP.

COZ035-036-038>041-150215-
/O.EXT.KBOU.FF.A.0007.110714T1805Z-110715T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
INCLUDING...ESTES PARK...GLENDEVEY...NEDERLAND...
RED FEATHER LAKES...BAILEY...CENTRAL CITY...EVERGREEN...
GEORGETOWN...IDAHO SPRINGS...WESTCREEK...FORT COLLINS...
HEREFORD...LOVELAND...NUNN...ARVADA...BOULDER...GOLDEN...
LAKEWOOD...LONGMONT...AURORA...BRIGHTON...CITY OF DENVER...
DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...HIGHLANDS RANCH...LITTLETON...
PARKER...CASTLE ROCK...ELBERT...FONDIS...KIOWA...LARKSPUR
1205 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND 
  NORTHEAST COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. IN NORTH 
  CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. IN 
  NORTHEAST COLORADO...BOULDER/WESTERN DENVER SUBURBS...CASTLE 
  ROCK/PALMER DIVIDE...FORT COLLINS VICINITY/NORTHWEST WELD 
  COUNTY AND DENVER/SOUTHERN/NORTHERN/EASTERN DENVER SUBURBS. 

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WILL
  SPREAD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL ON MOIST SOILS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE
  FLASH FLOODING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...REPEAT THIS IS A WATCH AND NOT A WARNING...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT IMMINENT...WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE
ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCUR...OR IF A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

$$

COZ042>046-048-150215-
/O.CON.KBOU.FF.A.0007.110714T2100Z-110715T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-
INCLUDING...BRIGGSDALE...GROVER...PAWNEE BUTTES...RAYMER...
STONEHAM...EATON...FORT LUPTON...GREELEY...ROGGEN...BRUSH...
FORT MORGAN...GOODRICH...WIGGINS...BENNETT...BYERS...DEER TRAIL...
LEADER...AGATE...HUGO...LIMON...MATHESON...CROOK...MERINO...
STERLING...PEETZ
1205 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEAST COLORADO... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... 
  LIMON VICINITY. IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...RURAL ADAMS AND 
  ARAPAHOE COUNTIES...GREELEY VICINITY/SOUTHERN WELD COUNTY... 
  LOGAN COUNTY...MORGAN COUNTY AND NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY. 

* FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING

* THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND THESE WILL
  SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
  ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL ON MOIST SOILS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE
  FLASH FLOODING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...REPEAT THIS IS A WATCH AND NOT A WARNING...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT IMMINENT...WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE
ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCUR...OR IF A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

$$

284 
WGUS65 KBOU 150132
FFABOU

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
732 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...

.THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVIDE HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING MAY STILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. VERY MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS ALREADY 
EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO BECAUSE OF THE REPEATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE PAST WEEK.
RAPID RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.


COZ035-036-038>041-043-045-046-150245-
/O.CAN.KBOU.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110715T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
INCLUDING...ESTES PARK...GLENDEVEY...NEDERLAND...
RED FEATHER LAKES...BAILEY...CENTRAL CITY...EVERGREEN...
GEORGETOWN...IDAHO SPRINGS...WESTCREEK...FORT COLLINS...
HEREFORD...LOVELAND...NUNN...ARVADA...BOULDER...GOLDEN...
LAKEWOOD...LONGMONT...AURORA...BRIGHTON...CITY OF DENVER...
DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...HIGHLANDS RANCH...LITTLETON...
PARKER...CASTLE ROCK...ELBERT...FONDIS...KIOWA...LARKSPUR...
EATON...FORT LUPTON...GREELEY...ROGGEN...BENNETT...BYERS...
DEER TRAIL...LEADER...AGATE...HUGO...LIMON...MATHESON
732 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO...EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...URBAN
CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE.

$$

COZ042-044-048-150600-
/O.CON.KBOU.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110715T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-
INCLUDING...BRIGGSDALE...GROVER...PAWNEE BUTTES...RAYMER...
STONEHAM...BRUSH...FORT MORGAN...GOODRICH...WIGGINS...CROOK...
MERINO...STERLING...PEETZ
732 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHEAST COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...LOGAN COUNTY...MORGAN COUNTY AND NORTHEAST WELD 
  COUNTY. 

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT

* THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY STILL PRODUCE
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON MOIST SOILS
  WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...REPEAT THIS IS A WATCH AND NOT A WARNING...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT IMMINENT...WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE
ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCUR...OR IF A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

$$

311 
WGUS65 KBOU 150337
FFABOU

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
937 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011


COZ042-044-048-150445-
/O.CAN.KBOU.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110715T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-
INCLUDING...BRIGGSDALE...GROVER...PAWNEE BUTTES...RAYMER...
STONEHAM...BRUSH...FORT MORGAN...GOODRICH...WIGGINS...CROOK...
MERINO...STERLING...PEETZ
937 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.  ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING THEY ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
405 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FILLED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER
VAPOR PICTURES SHOW A NEW SURGE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
REMAINS OVER TEXAS WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS
COLORADO.  AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE PLAINS AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO WILL KEEP WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AGAIN BE SUFFICIENT TO DE-STABILIZE THE MOIST AIRMASS LATE IN
THE DAY.  QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
AFTER 00Z.  THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO FEATURE A 60 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET ARCING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO WHICH MAY HELP STORMS TO ORGANIZE
IN A TRAINING PATTERN THROUGH THE EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO WITH CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG.  DEW POINTS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...HELPING TO FUEL THE  LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AND MAKING THE SHOWERS EFFICIENT
PRODUCERS OF RAINFALL.  LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STORM MOTIONS BETWEEN 5 AND 15
KNOTS.  SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE ALSO
NEAR SATURATION DUE TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
WEEK.  THE COMBINATION OF SLOW MOVING STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS MAKE IT
NECESSARY FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF THE
PLAINS.  WILL RUN THE WATCH FROM 3 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...LITTLE TO ADD TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI ON FRIDAY...AND APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  WEAK DISTURBANCES MIGRATING AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH
THIS WEAK FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETECT...BUT WILL ELEVATE THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WHEN THEY MIGRATE ACROSS THE CWFA.  AS FAR AS
THE MSTR IS CONCERNED...THE 00Z NAM12 SOUNDINGS ARE PROGGED TO BE
DRIER AT DENVER AND LIMON I HAD A HARD TIME BELIEVING THE MID 40S
DEWPOINTS DEPICTED IN THE SOUNDINGS.  SREF STILL MAINTAINS DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...AND THIS SEEMS MORE BELIEVABLE CONSIDERING HOW
SATURATED THE SOILS HAVE BECOME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE
WEAK AND RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW ALOFT.  WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FCST
SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE.  WITH DEWPOINTS
MODIFIED IN THE 50S...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE NAM12
SOUNDINGS SHOULD STILL OVER ONE INCH WITH CAPES FM 1000-2000 J/KG...
WET MICROBURSTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN
ISSUES.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING IT WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  THEREFORE SEE NO REASON TO ALTER THE GRIDS FOR
SATURDAY AND BEYOND WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
22Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE METRO
AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BUT MAY ALSO
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY OR DAMAGING WINDS.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE METRO AREA MAY AGAIN CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z.  STORMS WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTER APPROACH GATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EASTERN GATES LATER IN THE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SNOWMELT RUNOFF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FRASER RIVER AND
THE UPPER COLORADO RUNNING AT OR JUST ABOVE BANKFULL IN GRAND
COUNTY.  IN SUMMIT COUNTY...THE BLUE RIVER HAS BEEN RUNNING NEAR
BANKFULL BECAUSE OF SNOWMELT AND RECENT HEAVY RAINS.  SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SINCE HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE NOT OCCURRED SINCE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

IN THE FOURMILE BURN AREA...A PAIR OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER THE
BURN AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THE FIRST THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED
RAINFALLS BETWEEN .80 AND 1.40 INCHES IN 30 TO 45 MINUTES.  CREEKS
IN THE BURN AREA HAD RAPID RESPONSES.  DEBRIS FLOWS AND SOME ROAD
WASHOUTS OCCURRED.  ANOTHER TUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE EVENING
PRODUCED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN 15 MINUTES.  CREEKS ROSE
RAPIDLY AND ADDITIONAL DEBRIS FLOWS WERE OBSERVED.  WITH SOIL
CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION TODAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
OVER THE BURN AREA WILL CONTINUE CAUSING ADDITIONAL DEBRIS FLOWS AND
RAPID RISES IN CREEK LEVELS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS BECAUSE SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE NEAR SATURATION BECAUSE OF RAINFALLS
THAT HAVE OCCURRED EACH DAY FOR THE PAST WEEK.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...ZONES 35..36..38..39..40..41..42..43..44..45..46 AND 48.

&&

KDRBY/COOPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
521 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2011

COZ030>051-141200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
521 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2011

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES IN AND NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE IN
ELBERT AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD TURN SEVERE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF TORNADOES. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. INTENSE
LIGHTNING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. FARTHER OUT ON THE
PLAINS...ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAR LESS UNSTABLE IN THIS AREA.

STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE
WITH THE LIFT PRODUCED BY A WEAK UPPER AIR WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT
IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING. EVEN
THOUGH STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING...THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
GREATER DENVER METRO AREA. REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

BAKER/MEIER