Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REMNANTS OF DECAYED OVERNIGHT MCS ARE NOW IN GA. LESSOR SYSTEM
WENT INTO W MS. BETTER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TODAY OVER N TX/OK/INTO
AR. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF C AL WITH THE
CURRENT UPPER STEERING FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AFFECTING
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF LA/MS. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD
NOT BE VERY STRONG AS ATMOSPHERE WAS PRETTY WORKED OVER EARLY ON
WITH SEVERE PARAMETERS GREATLY AFFECTED...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT TRAVERSED THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA
AND HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE CWA. FRIDAY SHOULD GO BACK TO MORE OF
A ROUTINE SUMMER DAY WITH LOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS MAINLY WITH
THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.

ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY. HOWEVER...SOME
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IT IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH COMING IN ON
SATURDAY. IF IT COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THAN OUR
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEATING WILL BE LOST AND SO WILL SOME OF OUR
SEVERE CHANCES. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE
EXPECTED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
THIS WILL YIELD A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW TO AIDE IN USHERING
THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY NO MEANS IS THIS
FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS HUMID AND
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR WILL STILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE TO THE
CONDITIONS OF LATE. THE RESULTING SURFACE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS
LOOKS TO KEEP US RAIN FREE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLY MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY CONDITIONS ALMOST KINDA NICE.

08/MNK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENTLY WATCHING SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONLY ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT TOI THROUGH
01Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PORTIONS OF
THE EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR MVFR VIS TO DEVELOP FOR MOST SITES BY
MIDNIGHT LASTING THROUGH 13Z. BIG QUESTION WILL BE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND HOW MUCH FOG WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TOMORROW...DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS TO WHO WILL BE
AFFECTED AND WHEN...SO WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN CB FOR ALL SITES.

73/27

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-121130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
535 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20/59. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE MAXIMUM HEATING OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHINA GROVE             32.03N 85.94W
08/11/2011  M58 MPH          PIKE               AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NO KNOWN DAMAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

10.5

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
707 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

ALZ049-050-120045-
BARBOUR AL-PIKE AL-
707 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN BARBOUR COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 703 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRUNDIDGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CLIO...
  DOSTER...
  BLUE SPRINGS STATE PARK...
  HAMILTON CROSSROADS...
  TENNILLE...

&&

LAT...LON 3170 8590 3182 8579 3167 8548 3161 8555
      3161 8582
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 318DEG 8KT 3171 8579

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
713 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

ALZ014-015-024-120100-
JEFFERSON AL-WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
713 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WINSTON...NORTHERN
WALKER AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 712 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SMITH DAM TO LYNN...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CARBON HILL...
  JASPER...
  CORDOVA...
  SMITH DAM...
  POPLAR SPRINGS...

&&

LAT...LON 3402 8710 3399 8710 3397 8713 3396 8710
      3390 8708 3390 8701 3386 8698 3386 8696
      3382 8695 3384 8685 3375 8681 3377 8752
      3386 8753 3387 8754 3418 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 325DEG 18KT 3394 8705 3408 8747

27

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