Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1205 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION AND MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN. GOOD THING FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER UP NORTH HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD COVER HAS
GENERATED A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE WATCHING A BOUNDARY SLIDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH. JUST LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WE WILL MONITOR THE OVERALL MEAN FLOW FOR THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WE ARE SEEING SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE IS TRYING TO
BUILD FURTHER EAST...AT THE SAME TIME IT IS ALSO MOVING NORTH.
THAT WOULD MEAN THAT FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WOULD
TAKE ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST...THEN SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BEGINNING TO SEE THE SOUTHERN TURN OF THE SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN ALABAMA RIGHT NOW. PROBLEM WILL BE HERE IS THAT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE MORE STABLE
AIRMASS...SO EXACTLY HOW STRONG ACTIVITY AND HOW WIDESPREAD WILL
THE COVERAGE BE. CHANCES ARE HIGHEST FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY VFR CONDITIONS. WE REMAIN
ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
ENHANCE CONVECTION. THE TIMING REMAINS THE BIGGEST ISSUE AND WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MAXIMUM HEATING PERIOD OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER CLOUDS THIS MORNING STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WILL BREAK UP HERE AND THERE
ALLOWING FOR SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. ADDITIONALLY THERE ARE A
FEW SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS
ALTHOUGH THE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY WILL PLAY A ROLE
HERE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE. LEANED TOWARD THE PREVAILING BOUNDARY LAYER DIRECTION IN
THE FORECAST BUT EXPECT SOME VARIABILITY. MENTIONED A TEMPO MVFR
VIS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF
THE TERMINAL RECEIVES RAINFALL TODAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  73  92  73  93 /  60  20  40  20  40
ANNISTON    92  74  93  75  94 /  50  20  40  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  77  94  76  95 /  60  20  40  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  76  96  76  97 /  60  20  40  20  40
CALERA      94  75  93  75  94 /  50  20  40  20  40
AUBURN      94  74  91  74  92 /  40  20  50  20  40
MONTGOMERY  96  76  93  76  95 /  40  20  50  20  40
TROY        96  74  92  74  94 /  40  20  50  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-071130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNTIL 8 PM...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A BIG CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
117 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

ALZ038-047-061900-
CHAMBERS AL-LEE AL-
117 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHAMBERS AND LEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 116 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING SEVERAL
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BEANS MILL...OR NEAR OPELIKA...MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  VALLEY...
  LANETT...
  SMITHS...
  CUSSETA...
  BEANS MILL...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 8505 3252 8551 3292 8554 3292 8520
      3286 8518 3284 8515 3281 8516 3278 8512
      3275 8514 3274 8511 3269 8511 3267 8509
      3264 8509 3264 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 276DEG 6KT 3271 8533

10/ARM