Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1133 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION AND AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GOING TO DO A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINGS REALLY GET
FIRING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE CURRENT TRENDS
AS THEY ARE FAIRLY WELL LINED UP. STILL EXPECTING PRETTY GOOD
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND A COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL INTERACT THROUGH OUT THE AFTERNOON. CONCERNS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY FOR WIND DAMAGE AND OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAIN THAT FALLS QUICKLY OVER ONE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH PWS
AT 2.17 AT EET AND AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 2.3 AREAWIDE. TAKING A PEAK
AT SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A MODIFIED
SOUNDING...PUTS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR MICROBURST WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM TUSCALOOSA TO MONTGOMERY. HERE SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE
3000 TO 3500 WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 700 TO 900 J/KG. LIS ARE -6
TO -8 AREAWIDE...SO LOOK FOR ONCE AGAIN QUITE A LIGHTNING SHOW
WITH ANY STORM THAT GETS GOING. ONE THING TO NOTE TODAY IS THAT IT
IS A TOUCH COOLER ALOFT TODAY AS THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE IS AT -7
DEG C COMPARED TO -4 DEG C ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD HELP THE
DOWNDRAFTS REACH THE GROUND QUICKER IF A CORE WAS TO GET HIGH
ENOUGH. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE LATE EVENING
WITH MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES REMAIN
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL INTERACT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE...ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAX HEATING PERIOD OF 21-24Z. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MAY SEE SOME VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AS THE STORMS PROCEED THIS AFTERNOON. WILL AMEND AS
NEEDED.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...SO FOG WILL BE
LIMITED. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AND WILL GO AHEAD
AND START AROUND 15Z.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  74  90  73  88 /  50  50  60  30  40
ANNISTON    94  74  90  73  89 /  50  50  60  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  95  76  92  76  89 /  50  50  60  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  96  76  94  75  92 /  60  50  60  30  50
CALERA      95  75  92  74  89 /  60  50  60  30  50
AUBURN      95  75  90  74  88 /  60  50  60  40  60
MONTGOMERY  95  77  93  75  90 /  60  50  70  40  60
TROY        95  76  92  74  89 /  70  50  70  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-151659-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...
MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
226 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

ALZ048-142000-
RUSSELL AL-
226 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR RUSSELL COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

AT 224 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SEALE...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FORT BENNING SOUTH...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SEALE...
  RUSSELL COUNTY SPORTS COMPLEX...
  UCHEE...
  HATCHECHUBBE...
  RUTHERFORD...

&&

LAT...LON 3218 8499 3218 8501 3213 8506 3210 8504
      3206 8505 3207 8519 3208 8520 3215 8527
      3215 8540 3240 8536 3229 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 101DEG 3KT 3220 8509

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
238 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

ALZ028-142030-
CLAY AL-
238 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

AT 238 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT CHEAHA...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LINEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LINEVILLE...
  ASHLAND...
  BARFIELD...
  SPRINGHILL...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3327 8566 3323 8595 3345 8591 3348 8575
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 350DEG 2KT 3340 8584

10/ARM

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