Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
258 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...

NOTHING REALLY HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE PREFERRED AREA TODAY IS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
MORNING AND AREAS REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS
WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW IN THE FEW
PLACES THAT REMAIN OVERCAST DURING THE DAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS BECOMES CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERLY MISSOURI. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION SOMEWHAT WITH ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR NEXT WEEK AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHICH ARE FARTHEST FROM THE RIDGE. WITH LESSER RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID
90S AND PERHAPS HIGHER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WERE AGAIN NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. IT
IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE...BUT ALL SITES
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AMPLE MOISTURE SO WITH CALM WINDS AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER...FOG SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FORMING. ONCE THE
SUN RISES...FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  89  68  90  69 /  20  50  30  40  30
ANNISTON    69  90  70  91  71 /  30  50  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  70  91  71  93  73 /  30  50  30  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  70  92  71  94  72 /  30  40  30  40  30
CALERA      70  90  71  91  72 /  40  50  30  40  30
AUBURN      71  90  71  90  70 /  50  40  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  71  93  72  93  73 /  50  40  30  40  30
TROY        69  92  70  92  71 /  50  40  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

88/73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
116 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-061816-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
116 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 8 PM.  THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
501 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

ALZ028-036-037-052245-
CLAY AL-COOSA AL-TALLAPOOSA AL-
501 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TALLAPOOSA...
NORTHEASTERN COOSA AND WESTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 500 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR KELLYTON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  KELLYTON...
  GOODWATER...
  CREWSVILLE...
  BRADFORD...
  HATCHET...

&&

LAT...LON 3292 8589 3285 8608 3310 8625 3310 8618
      3319 8617 3320 8612 3326 8612 3329 8606
      3329 8598 3335 8598 3342 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 156DEG 10KT 3297 8603

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
533 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

ALZ025-027-035-036-052315-
CHILTON AL-COOSA AL-SHELBY AL-TALLADEGA AL-
533 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TALLADEGA...SOUTHERN
SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN COOSA AND NORTHERN CHILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615
PM CDT...

AT 530 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF UNION GROVE...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
COLUMBIANA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  COLUMBIANA...
  TALLADEGA SPRINGS...
  WILSONVILLE...
  BLUE SPRINGS...
  FAYETTEVILLE...

&&

LAT...LON 3330 8652 3317 8626 3297 8658 3306 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 231DEG 3KT 3305 8661

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