Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN TRIGGERING MECHANISM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL PRODUCE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EITHER APPROACH OR HIT
TRIPLE DIGITS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE MID 90S RATHER THAN UPPER
90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY CELEBRATIONS...A WEAKENING UPPER HIGH WILL
ALLOW RAIN COVERAGE TO INCREASE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST WISE...NAM12 CONTINUES TO DO THE BEST OF ALL THE MODELS
IN PICKING UP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DID NOT SEE A REASON TO
DEVIATE MUCH FROM IT. IT REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO SEE A RETURN OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS...OR MCS.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA.  DEEPER MOISTURE OVER EAST ALABAMA COMBINED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSTM FORMATION.  THE
BEST CHANCE OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN KAUO AND KANB...
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...BUT STORM FLOW FROM EAST TO WEST COULD PUSH
ANY STORMS CLOSER TO KEET AND KBHM...BY 22Z.  STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.  LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP AFTER
08Z...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAINFALL.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  94  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    68  96  69  97  71 /  10  20  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  70 100  71 100  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
CALERA      71  96  72  99  72 /  10  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      71  94  73  95  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  71  98  72  98  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
TROY        69  96  72  97  69 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
121 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-020300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
121 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 7
PM.  THE THREAT AREA IS EAST OF I-65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E CAMP HILL           32.80N 85.58W
07/01/2011                   CHAMBERS           AL   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 50.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
515 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

ALZ037-043-045-012300-
ELMORE AL-MACON AL-TALLAPOOSA AL-
515 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TALLAPOOSA...NORTHERN
MACON AND SOUTHEASTERN ELMORE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 511 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUSKEGEE...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS FROM 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TALLASSEE...
  LIBERTY CITY...
  FRANKLIN...
  TALLAPOOSA CITY...
  REEVES AIRPORT...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 8566 3249 8602 3269 8579 3260 8569
      3258 8570 3258 8567 3251 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 106DEG 11KT 3245 8574

56

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