Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...WHICH HOLDS THE BULK OF OUR ATTENTION WITH REGARD TO
THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST. CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING POSTED A
NOT-TOO-SHABBY 1.74 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...I AM INCLINED TO BUMP UP POPS TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. I'LL KEEP THE 20-30
PERCENT IN THE SOUTH...ONLY BECAUSE I AM NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
CONVECTION COULD GET BEFORE 00Z.

THE CHANGE TO POPS WILL BE THE ONLY BIG CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY...BUT PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE TO
REACH HIGHS IN THE 90S.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS IN TENNESSEE HAS PUSHED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE. CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE QUITE
UNSTABLE...AND THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE CURRENT AREA OF
STORMS WILL RIDE ALONG THE PREVIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. THUS...I HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TRY TO TIME THE STORMS' ARRIVAL INTO BHM...
TCL...EET...AND ANB...AS INDICATED BY THE VCTS IN THE FORECAST. IF
THE STORMS DO CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP SOUTHWARD...AND
CONFIDENCE GROWS EVEN MORE...THEN WE WILL UPDATE THE RESPECTIVE TAFS
TO GET EVEN MORE SPECIFIC ON AFFECTS AND TIMING.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
VFR...WITH CUMULUS LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFTER DARK AND REFORMING
AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET SUBSTANTIAL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING WILL HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

/61/

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

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&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
108 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-271800-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
108 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 8 PM THIS EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS IS FROM THE CITIES OF
VERNON...FAYETTE...BIRMINGHAM...AND ANNISTON...NORTHWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TUESDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1015 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S HEFLIN              33.62N 85.59W
06/24/2011                   CLEBURNE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG INTERSTATE 20.

&&

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

ALZ017-262000-
BLOUNT AL-
223 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BLOUNT COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

AT 219 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLOUNTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BLOUNTSVILLE...
  STRAWBERRY...
  BROOKSVILLE...
  SNEAD...
  MCLARTY...

&&

LAT...LON 3420 8640 3410 8630 3407 8633 3402 8634
      3408 8670 3409 8670 3409 8668 3412 8663
      3413 8661 3418 8656 3426 8652 3426 8644
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 277DEG 13KT 3416 8660

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

ALZ050-262015-
BARBOUR AL-
245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM CDT...

AT 242 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR TEXASVILLE...OR 12 MILES EAST OF CLIO...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CLIO...
  TYLER CROSSROADS...
  GAINO...
  MILLERS FORD...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 8563 3195 8538 3174 8527 3170 8533
      3170 8541 3164 8541 3162 8543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 139DEG 6KT 3175 8542

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

ALZ011>015-023-024-262115-
FAYETTE AL-JEFFERSON AL-LAMAR AL-MARION AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-WALKER
AL-WINSTON AL-
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WINSTON...WALKER...
NORTHERN TUSCALOOSA...SOUTHERN MARION...LAMAR...WESTERN JEFFERSON AND
FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 311 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF WESTON TO
CURRY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  JASPER...
  CARBON HILL...
  WINFIELD...
  CORDOVA...
  SULLIGENT...

&&

LAT...LON 3422 8819 3399 8714 3392 8708 3390 8708
      3390 8701 3385 8697 3342 8696 3350 8784
      3353 8785 3353 8824 3383 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 341DEG 36KT 3412 8812 3390 8723

27