Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1002 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.MESOSCALE UPDATE DISCUSSION...

WE WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL
NOON. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT IS DRIVING THESE STORMS WILL
FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS IN TURN
WILL END THE THREAT OF BOWING SEGMENTED STORMS. HOWEVER...WE ARE
EXPECTING FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME UNSTABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. IF WE CAN
GET ENOUGH CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WE COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
USUALLY SEE IN THE SUMMER. ALTHOUGH BOWING STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FORM OF
QUICK DOWNBURSTS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT...WE COULD STILL SEE
LARGE HAIL. SO...AT AROUND NOON...WE WILL RE-ASSESS CONDITIONS AND
SEE IF WE NEED TO EXTENDED...ADD OR DROP COUNTIES FROM THIS WATCH.

IN ADDITION...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL DUE TO A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS THIS COMBINATION
WILL FAVOR A TRAINING STORM EFFECT. A REFRESHER...TRAINING STORMS
ARE SEVERAL STORMS THAT MOVE ALONG THE SAME LOCATION IN A
RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. ALTHOUGH EACH STORM WILL NOT DROP
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN...ROUGHLY AN INCH OR LESS...ALL OF
THEM COMBINED COULD ADD UP QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING ELSE
THAT WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF A WATCH IS
NECESSARY.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON IS
VERY SMALL. SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS WEAKENS WHICH GREATLY NULLIFIES
THE THREAT.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE
FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. MOST LIKELY
WILL HAVE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS AS STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN SOME...THEN PICK UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING WITH LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES. STORMS LESS LIKELY ACROSS MGM
AND EVEN LESSER AT TOI. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER
DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR
ACCURACY.

08/MNK

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
705 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-211200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
705 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT AREA WILL EXTEND FURTHER
SOUTHWARD TO MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOCALIZED HOT SPOTS. THE TORNADO THREAT
IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH A LESSOR THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. OVERALL TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR TUESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
SURFACE FRONT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES ONLY...AND NOT DUE TO ANY LACK OF OVERALL FORCING
AND INSTABILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
TODAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

08/MNK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1019 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TUSCALOOSA              33.24N 87.54W
04/20/2011                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF TUSCALOOSA.

&&

MROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1019 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ALZ025-027-028-035-036-201615-
CHILTON AL-CLAY AL-COOSA AL-SHELBY AL-TALLADEGA AL-
1019 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TALLADEGA...
SHELBY...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...NORTHERN COOSA AND NORTHERN CHILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

AT 1014 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAK MOUNTAIN STATE PARK TO
CALERA...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CHELSEA...
  COLUMBIANA...
  WILSONVILLE...
  TALLADEGA SPRINGS...
  CHILDERSBURG...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8611 3297 8681 3338 8679 3338 8678
      3340 8675 3342 8675 3343 8673 3344 8672
      3346 8668 3344 8638 3340 8638 3344 8633
      3343 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 272DEG 29KT 3333 8667 3306 8668

56