Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1210 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT THE CLEAR
SKIES THAT ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP. EXPECTING
LOWS TONIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN AS SKIES BECOME OVERCAST AND
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
RISE BEFORE 12Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW...CURRENT THINKING REMAINS THE SAME FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOOKING AT SEVERAL MODEL FIELDS THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS THE SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS...WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR INCREASED
CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. UPDATES ARE OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR LOWERING VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR MGM
AND TOI...AS A LOW STRATUS DECK FROM THE GULF COAST MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHWARD. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM 09Z TO 12Z...AND LEFT -RA VCTS IN THE
TAF. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS WITH SCATTERED STORMS
SOUTH. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

56/GOGGINS

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  72  58  67  42 /  60  90  80  50  20
ANNISTON    48  73  60  69  44 /  40  80  80  50  20
BIRMINGHAM  54  74  59  68  44 /  60  80  80  40  20
TUSCALOOSA  52  79  61  70  46 /  60  70  60  40  20
CALERA      52  76  61  69  46 /  30  70  80  50  20
AUBURN      48  78  62  75  49 /  10  50  60  70  20
MONTGOMERY  52  81  65  79  52 /  10  50  40  50  20
TROY        49  81  64  78  53 /  10  50  40  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

56/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
826 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-270130-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
826 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREAT WINDOW WILL
BE FROM AROUND 10 AM SATURDAY...THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASING THREAT OF TORNADOES SATURDAY EVENING BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO
OVERCOME...BUT MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA RECEIVES THIS WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING DUE TO THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

17/KLAWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
349 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

ALZ011-260930-
MARION AL-
349 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 345 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR FULTON IN MISSISSIPPI...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HAMILTON...
  WESTON...
  HACKLEBURG...
  BRINN...
  LAKE BUTTAHATCHEE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8764 3406 8764 3409 8820 3411 8821
      3431 8818 3433 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 0846Z 262DEG 42KT 3424 8839