Alert archive / Alabama / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

February 28, 2011Cherokee County, Alabama

NWS Birmingham, AL issued this special weather statement at Feb 28, 2011, 3:15 PM CST for Cherokee County, Alabama. It was in force for 15 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 28, 2011, 3:15 PM CST (21:15 UTC)
Expired: Feb 28, 2011, 3:30 PM CST
In force: 15 min
Issued by: NWS Birmingham, AL

County Cherokee County, AL

The radar

The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Birmingham, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Feb 28, 11:52 AM CST, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 11:52 AM CST, 3 hours 23 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 AM CST MON FEB 28 2011

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS TO DELAY ONSET OF STRONGER
CONVECTION SHIFTING TO MAINLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT PRE LINE STORMS FROM DEVELOPING ALONG WITH MAIN
LINE STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN MISSISSIPPI. LINE IS BEGINNING TO
BECOME A TAD MORE ROBUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI...BUT
STRONGER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FAR NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO
TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES VERY WARM TODAY AND TRENDING WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE. TORNADO WATCH STILL IN EFFECT FOR FAR NORTHWEST 5
COUNTIES IN CWA UNTIL 1PM. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MNK

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN SW AL
MOVING NE...AND LINE OF DEVELOPING STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS
OF STATE AT NOON. AS SUCH...HAVE PUT IN TEMPO GROUPS TO ANTICIPATE
STORM ARRIVAL. WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KTS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
FRONT ON SW WINDS. GENERAL THINKING IS THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EAST OF TAF SITES AROUND 00Z. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...POST FRONTAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH
CLEARING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTICE...TAF FOR ANB WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE /AMD NOT SKED/ APPENDED
TO THE END...DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES. WILL UTILIZE DIAL UP AND
OTHER RESOURCES (SATELLITE...RADAR...ETC) TO TRY TO KEEP UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS THERE.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 2010/2011 WINTER
SEASON. THE CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND
MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

STEFKOVICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST MON FEB 28 2011/

UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...

AFTER LOOKING AT A BUNCH OF DATA THIS MORNING...WE REMAIN IN A WAIT
AND SEE POSTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE OBVIOUS WARM AND HUMID...AND THERE ARE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 70S.
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH SBCAPES ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. THATS TWO
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.  VARIOUS SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT TO ORGANIZE ANY STORMS THAT FORM INTO
SEVERE STORMS.

THE MISSING INGREDIENT RIGHT NOW TO ME SEEMS TO BE LIFT...OR MORE
IMPORTANTLY ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL CAP. SURFACE
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN INTO MIDDLE
TN...AND THERE WAS SOME CONVECTION TRAILING FROM THAT INTO NORTH MS
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE. SO...THE LIFT (PRODUCING
THAT MS CONVECTION) WAS LAGGING THE OTHER PARAMETERS (BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR).

SO THE BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES...WILL THE FORCING CATCH UP TO THE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BEFORE THEY MOVE EASTWARD? CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
INTO AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE GOING TO BE IN
THE LOWER-MID 60S FOR MUCH/MOST OF THE DAY...AND TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCH UP AS
WELL. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE SHEAR/HELICITY TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. IF LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND EVEN MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THEN THE SHEAR WOULD BE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...LESSENING
THE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. IF THAT LOW IN TN DEEPENS JUST
A BIT...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WHERE THEY ARE...THEN WE MAY HAVE
ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.

THE NEXT 2 HOURS WILL BE TELLING. WE ARE ALSO PLANNING AN 18Z
SOUNDING FLIGHT.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  39  65  34  67 / 100  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    78  41  66  35  68 / 100  30   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  79  41  65  39  68 / 100  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  80  40  67  37  71 / 100  10   0   0   0
CALERA      79  41  66  39  68 / 100  20   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  47  67  41  66 / 100  70   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  82  46  68  40  69 /  90  50   0   0   0
TROY        82  48  68  38  69 /  80  60   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...
CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

08/88/61

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 12:40 PM CST, 2 hours 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 PM CST MON FEB 28 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-011230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1240 PM CST MON FEB 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND INTENSIFY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 WILL BE AFFECTED THROUGH 5 PM...AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 2
PM THROUGH 7 PM. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH 7 PM. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
TODAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 28, 2:48 PM CST, 27 minutes before

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Local storm report, Feb 28, 2:56 PM CST, 19 minutes before

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Local storm report, Feb 28, 3:04 PM CST, 11 minutes before

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Local storm report, Feb 28, 3:05 PM CST, 10 minutes before

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Local storm report, Feb 28, 3:11 PM CST, 4 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Feb 28, 3:15 PM CST, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Birmingham, AL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 28, 1:53 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Marshall	37 min
Feb 28, 2:11 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Cherokee	34 min
Feb 28, 2:19 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Jefferson, Tuscaloosa	41 min
Feb 28, 2:21 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Cherokee, Etowah	24 min
Feb 28, 2:32 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Jefferson, Tuscaloosa	43 min
Feb 28, 2:44 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Cherokee	19 min
Feb 28, 2:58 PM CST	Tornado Warning	BMX	Barbour, Bullock, Pike	15 min
Feb 28, 2:59 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Bibb, Shelby	61 min
Feb 28, 3:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Calhoun, St. Clair, Talladega	51 min
Feb 28, 3:39 PM CST	Tornado Warning	BMX	Shelby, Talladega	36 min
Feb 28, 3:53 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Cleburne	37 min
Feb 28, 4:00 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Clay, Coosa, Randolph, Talladega, Tallapoosa	45 min
Feb 28, 4:16 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Autauga, Chilton, Dallas	44 min
Feb 28, 4:22 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Autauga, Dallas, Perry	38 min
Feb 28, 4:43 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Clay, Randolph	17 min
Feb 28, 4:47 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Autauga, Dallas, Lowndes	43 min
Feb 28, 5:11 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Chambers	49 min
Feb 28, 5:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Dallas, Lowndes, Montgomery	45 min
Feb 28, 5:29 PM CST	Tornado Warning	BMX	Chambers	23 min
Feb 28, 5:56 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Bullock, Montgomery	49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Alabama, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.