Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Birmingham, AL

943 
WWUS54 KBMX 011152
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
552 AM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

ALC007-063-065-105-119-125-011215-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110101T1215Z/
PERRY AL-SUMTER AL-HALE AL-GREENE AL-BIBB AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-
552 AM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TUSCALOOSA...BIBB...SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...HALE...EAST CENTRAL SUMTER
AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CST...

AT 547 AM CST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS BEING 
MONITORED...PRODUCING  QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM WOODSTOCK JUNCTION TO FORKLAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREENSBORO...BRENT...CENTREVILLE...MARION...LAKE VIEW...GREENSBORO
  MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...TANNEHILL IRONWORKS STATE PARK...WEST
  BLOCTON...MERTZ AND EOLINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3290 8776 3331 8730 3334 8717 3331 8715
      3330 8710 3325 8705 3325 8702 3317 8702
      3316 8697 3311 8697 3306 8691 3293 8692
      3284 8697 3283 8701 3274 8702 3254 8714
      3255 8800
TIME...MOT...LOC 1152Z 261DEG 24KT 3322 8715 3260 8779

$$

17/KLAWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 AM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

ON MY LAST SHIFT...I WAS FORECASTING SNOW...NOW SEVERE WEATHER
WEATHER. OH WHAT FUN IT IS TO FORECAST HERE IN THE DEEP SOUTH. HAVE
BEEN WATCHING DEWPOINTS ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SLOWLY RISE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW. MID 60S ARE EVIDENT IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS
IS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL IN MISSISSIPPI. AS OF
245 AM...HELICITY VALUES WERE OFF THE CHARTS WITH VALUES OF 500 TO
1000...CAPES AROUND 500...ALTHOUGH THE MOST EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY
WAS STILL OUT IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AS THE FRONT WORKS SLOWLY
SOUTH AND EAST THIS AREA WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION. AS IT ROTATES
THE DEWPOINTS WILL TRY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF IT. THIS IS THE MAIN
REASONING FOR THE EXTENSION OF THE TORNADO WATCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET THE INSTABILITY INTO
PLACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...BUT THE SHEAR IS EXTREMELY HIGH TO
THE WEST OF THIS AREA AND THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD MODIFY. THE MAIN
THREATS STILL REMAINS IN THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN
WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. THE WINDOW ACROSS THE
NORTH IS MUCH SMALLER THAN THE WINDOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN FACT WE
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. IN FACT THE
RAIN THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY MORNING.

WILL CLEAR COUNTIES IN BOTH WATCHES AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP SHOP THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE TRIES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT CHANCES
FAIRLY LOW AS THOUGHT PROCESS IS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE EURO IS A TOUCH SLOWER SO KEPT POPS IN
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH WITH EVENING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

16

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SH CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE NORTHERN SITES THIS EVENING.
THIS TREND WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-14 HOURS AS THE
FRONT IS STILL A WAYS TO THE WEST...BUT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS
HERE...WIDESPREAD TS WILL BE THE STORY.

CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT.  A FEW SITES ARE
SEEING VFR...BUT EVERYONE WILL FALL TO IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING AS RAIN INTENSIFIES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
FROPA COULD BE AS EARLY AS 16Z AT TCL AND MOVE THROUGH MGM/TOI BY
00-01Z.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 2010/2011 WINTER
SEASON. THE CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND
MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER OUTLOOK.

MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE TOMBIGBEE AND WARRIOR RIVER BASINS. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS SHOW THAT WHILE A 1.5 TO 2 INCH BASIN AVERAGE WILL
CREATE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE TOMBIGBEE AND WARRIOR
BASINS...CURRENT LEVELS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP AREA FORECAST
POINTS FROM GOING INTO FLOOD. IT WOULD TAKE CLOSER TO 2.5 OR 3
INCHES FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  31  48  22  53 / 100  30   0   0   0
ANNISTON    62  32  49  24  54 / 100  30  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  62  32  48  26  54 / 100  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  63  31  50  24  56 / 100  20   0   0   0
CALERA      62  32  49  26  55 / 100  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      63  39  53  27  57 / 100  70  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  37  53  27  59 / 100  60  10   0   0
TROY        68  41  54  27  59 / 100  70  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...
CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB...BLOUNT...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARENGO...MARION...PERRY...PICKENS...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

16/16/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-021000-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
356 AM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS STORMS WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION AND COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON.

ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT
SHOULD INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF AN ANNISTON TO SELMA LINE.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
238 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S VERNON              33.74N 88.11W
01/01/2011                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 17.

&&

SUNGER