Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...

WELL TODAY HAS MAINLY BEEN A WAIT A SEE DAY AS WE HAVE SEEN 2 WAVES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH EACH
WAVE...THE COLD POOL HAS SLID FURTHER SOUTH AND IS FINALLY IN
NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF THIS WRITING THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AND MAY STILL IMPACT A PORTION OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
MICROBURST THIS AFTERNOON...SO IF THE COLD POOL CAN WORK INTO THE
AREA...THEN THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THERE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD REMAIN IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND SUBSTANTIALLY GET LESS AS YOU GO
SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THAT SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM 50
PERCENT IN THE NORTHEAST TO ONLY 15 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. JUST HAVE
THE FEELING THAT MUCH LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
YESTERDAY...THE SUPPRESSION IS JUST TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT...EVEN THOUGH THE COLD POOL IS MORE THAN OVERLY
DOMINANT. COUNTIES NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST SHOULD BE READY
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND/OR WARNINGS A
LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 20 TO 30 POPS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WAVE SLIDING THROUGH.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY THE POPS GO WAY DOWN AND
STAY THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE. IF ALL GOES
ACCORDING TO MODEL TRENDS WE WILL GET INTO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AS
THE RIDGE ACTUALLY WORKS EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND A TROUGH SETS UP SHOP
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WITH THE ADDED GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE THROUGH...LOOK FOR A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE TO SEE IF IT WILL ACTUALLY BE BROKEN DOWN OR NOT BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONTINUING TO WATCH THE MCS TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AND
WEST AS EET. ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AROUND 01Z. SKIES COULD BECOME CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE FLOWS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN NOTED ON SEVERAL MODELS...FROM
LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA RANGING FROM 975 TO 950 MB. CLOUD HEIGHTS LOOK
TO BE ABOVE 1000 FT REMAINING IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER A CAVEAT
TO THIS IS THAT THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TOMORROW MORNING THAN
THERE WAS THIS MORNING...SO CLOUD COVER COULD BE SCT TO BKN.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  96  71  95  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    72  96  72  96  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  74  96  74  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  99  73  97  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      73  97  73  95  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      71  96  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  73  98  73  97  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        72  98  72  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

16/73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-191130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL POSSIBLY SLIDE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER 4 PM AND MAY IMPACT
AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
SYLACAUGA TO ROANOKE THROUGH 9 PM. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

ALZ014-182115-
WINSTON AL-
324 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WINSTON COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 321 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR MORELAND...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARLEY...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  INMANFIELD...
  ADDISON...
  HELICON...
  NESMITH...
  UPSHAW...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8731 3430 8711 3430 8710 3411 8710
      3411 8711 3419 8742 3431 8739 3431 8732
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 285DEG 24KT 3426 8729

17/KLAWS