Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...

THE ADVERTISED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA
RIGHT NOW SO WILL MAKE THIS SHORT AND SWEET. LOOKS LIKE A MCV HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS SLIDING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS HAS TRIGGERED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 5
PM. WITH OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING AND DAYTIME HEATING DECREASING
THE PLAN WITH SPC IS TO LET THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRE AT
5 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE ALREADY WORKED OVER
AIRMASS WE SHOULD SEE THE INTENSITY DECREASE. UNTIL THEN THE THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THERE
IS MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL ROTATION WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE LEADING
LINE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRYING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS THE RIDGE
MOVES BACK IN. THE NEXT FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHRA AND TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA INTO THE EVENING BUT
TIMING FOR INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES IS DIFFICULT SO WILL CARRY TEMPO
GROUPS INDICATING ANTICIPATED BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. SOME
TSRA COULD BECOME STRONG WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL THE
MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT TSRA TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOMEWHAT DRIER MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS INTO AREA
BEHIND FRONT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TOWARD 12Z AND WITH TROUGHINESS HANGING IN THE AREA SEE
NO REASON TO DISCOUNT THIS HAPPENING. WILL INDICATE IFR CONDS 10Z-
14Z TIME FRAME WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY AFTER THAT TIME
AS MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER MIXES OUT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY 12Z.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER
DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR
ACCURACY.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  83  57  89  64 /  40  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    61  84  60  89  67 /  50  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  61  84  60  90  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  59  85  61  92  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
CALERA      61  84  62  91  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      63  85  67  90  68 /  60  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  64  88  65  92  66 /  50  20  10  10  10
TROY        64  88  66  91  65 /  50  30   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

16/41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1134 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-270200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1134 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  THE
SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE I-59
CORRIDOR.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
147 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     HAIL             CENTRE                  34.15N 85.67W
05/26/2011  E1.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           AL   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CENTRE.

&&

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
225 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 PM     HAIL             TROY                    31.81N 85.97W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       PIKE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0217 PM     HAIL             5 E VIDA JUNCTION       32.57N 86.60W
05/26/2011  E0.88 INCH       AUTAUGA            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JTALLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
233 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW PRATTVILLE         32.43N 86.47W
05/26/2011                   AUTAUGA            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND PRATTVILLE.

0212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILLBROOK               32.48N 86.37W
05/26/2011                   ELMORE             AL   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

JTALLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             4 WNW MOUNTAIN CREEK    32.74N 86.54W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       CHILTON            AL   AMATEUR RADIO

0220 PM     HAIL             OHATCHEE                33.78N 86.02W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            AL   PUBLIC

&&

JTALLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
311 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             BYNUM                   33.61N 85.96W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            AL   PUBLIC

&&

JTALLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
344 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             WEAVER                  33.76N 85.81W
05/26/2011  E0.88 INCH       CALHOUN            AL   AMATEUR RADIO

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N SEALE               32.33N 85.17W
05/26/2011  M55 MPH          RUSSELL            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JTALLEY