Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Birmingham, AL

992 
WWUS54 KBMX 131449
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
949 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ALC127-133-131530-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-110513T1530Z/
WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
949 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
WINSTON AND NORTH CENTRAL WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

AT 947 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND 
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...WHICH WILL DOWN TREES AND 
POWER LINES.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CARBON HILL...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  POPLAR SPRINGS...MCDOWELL CAMP GROUNDS...CURRY...CORINTH REC
  AREA...LAKE SHORE...LUPTON...WALKER COUNTY AIRPORT...CLEAR CREEK...
  BLACK POND AND CURTIS CROSSROADS.

THIS INCLUDES...
US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 46 THROUGH 52...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3385 8748 3389 8749 3393 8752 3417 8737
      3395 8714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1449Z 235DEG 28KT 3393 8746

$$
STEFKOVICH

105 
WWUS54 KBMX 131454
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ALC127-133-131530-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-110513T1530Z/
WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
954 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
WINSTON AND NORTH CENTRAL WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

AT 952 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND 
COULD PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAUVOO...OR 7 MILES EAST OF CARBON 
HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 
BY THE PUBLIC JUST EAST OF CARBON HILL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  POPLAR SPRINGS...MCDOWELL CAMP GROUNDS...CURRY...CORINTH REC
  AREA...LAKE SHORE...LUPTON...WALKER COUNTY AIRPORT...CLEAR CREEK...
  BLACK POND AND CURTIS CROSSROADS.

THIS INCLUDES...
US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 46 THROUGH 52...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3385 8748 3389 8749 3393 8752 3417 8737
      3395 8714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1453Z 235DEG 28KT 3393 8741

$$
STEFKOVICH

614 
WWUS54 KBMX 131501
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1001 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ALC127-133-131530-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-110513T1530Z/
WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
1001 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
WINSTON AND NORTH CENTRAL WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

AT 956 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES SOUTH OF MCDOWELL CAMP GROUNDS...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
JASPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CURRY...CORINTH REC AREA...LAKE SHORE...BLACK POND AND CURTIS
  CROSSROADS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3390 8742 3396 8746 3417 8737 3395 8715
      3394 8718 3388 8738
TIME...MOT...LOC 1501Z 235DEG 28KT 3395 8729

$$
STEFKOVICH

361 
WWUS54 KBMX 131526
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1026 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ALC127-133-131536-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-110513T1530Z/
WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
1026 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WINSTON AND
NORTH CENTRAL WALKER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3390 8742 3396 8746 3417 8737 3395 8715
      3394 8718 3388 8738
TIME...MOT...LOC 1526Z 235DEG 28KT 3405 8709

$$
STEFKOVICH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
605 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
IS ON OUR DOORSTEP...AS A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY...WHICH IS MUCH
FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE INDICATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT US THIS AFTERNOON.
AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY RACING OFF AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THAT
BOUNDARY AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

THE ACTUAL SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM MOVING THROUGH...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL WILL
DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A STRONG MID AND LOW
LEVEL JET IS INDICATING THAT HIGHLY ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH...WITH THE NAM ADVERTISING ALMOST 3000J/KG OF SB CAPE FOR
BIRMINGHAM...AND THE GFS INDICATING ABOUT 1200. THE QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...AS IR
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS AMPLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS SPREADING NORTH
AND EASTWARD FROM A LEFTOVER MCS OVER THE GULF COAST. ALSO...IF A
LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...IT COULD CUT OFF OUR MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ALSO...THE GFS AND NAM ARE ONLY
INDICATING LI'S OF -2 TO -3 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.

NEVERTHELESS...THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE...AND SPC CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. THEY ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA FROM CONSOLIDATING THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
WEST. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS DEVELOPMENT...THEY
TYPICALLY DO A POOR JOB IN RESOLVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COMPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL...AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN. WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THE HWO FOR DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM LINDEN...TO ALABASTER...TO ONEONTA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
A LOW CONFIDENCE.

MODELS ARE INDICATING A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING
THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE LACK OF INSTABILITIES
SHOULD ALLOW THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS
HAVE BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS LOW. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

REGARDLESS OF ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...THE COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH THE EXACT TRACKS OF THE
DISTURBANCES...BUT INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
THAT COULD IMPACT OUR AREA. A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
THINGS NICE AND COOL FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GOGGINS

&&

.AVIATION...

ONLY SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. MAIN FOCUS FOR FORECAST PERIOD IS
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPROACHING NORTHWEST CORNER OF ALABAMA WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA FORMING/MOVING INTO AREA BY 15Z AT TCL BHM
AND EET...AND AS FAR EAST AS ANB BY 18Z.  EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONGER STORMS TO BE DURING THE 18Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING FRONT AND ATTENDANT
OUTFLOWS FROM ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING BUT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AREA AFTER
06Z COULD SEE MORE TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE
FORECASTS.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
834 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-141130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
834 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ROUND ONE...GENERALLY FROM NOW THROUGH 4 OR 5 PM. THE STORMS WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE THREATS INCLUDE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THE STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS ISOLATED AT THIS TIME AND COVERS
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE TORNADO THREAT IS
MINIMAL.

ROUND TWO...GENERALLY FROM 8 PM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE APPEARS A BIT BETTER
THAN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE DAY AND COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
AT SOME POINT TODAY LASTING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
821 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ALZ012-022-131400-
LAMAR AL-PICKENS AL-
821 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAMAR AND NORTHWESTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

AT 819 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MILLPORT...
  VERNON...
  KENNEDY...
  BLOOMING GROVE...
  FOREST...

&&

LAT...LON 3365 8826 3389 8796 3358 8795 3342 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 1320Z 237DEG 34KT 3351 8837

STEFKOVICH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
901 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ALZ013-131445-
FAYETTE AL-
901 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL 945
AM CDT...

AT 856 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLUFF...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAYETTE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GLEN ALLEN...
  HUBBERTVILLE...
  FOWLERS CROSSROADS...

&&

LAT...LON 3392 8786 3384 8756 3365 8792 3380 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 1402Z 229DEG 26KT 3378 8787

STEFKOVICH