River Flood Warning 38, NWS Birmingham, AL

264 
WGUS84 KBMX 231434
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
834 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL 
LOCK AND DAM...

.RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER BASIN HAD GIVEN RISE ON
THE RIVER LEVELS...HOWEVER, FLOOD IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC063-065-091-107-119-231504-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-111225T1400Z/
/AVLA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
834 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK 
AND DAM.
* AT 6:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 116.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 122.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE, AT 120 FEET AFTER 
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT .

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE LOW NEAR MERIDIAN MS IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES UP THE WARM FRONT.  MEANWHILE...SAID WARM FRONT IS ALSO
STRUGGLING JUST A BIT AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND AND STRONGER EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND AL. THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLING AS THE SURFACE WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN GENERAL CONTINUE TO BACK WITH TIME...THEREBY
INCREASING 0 TO 1 KM BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES.  THIS
IS NOT ALL THAT SURPRISING GIVEN THE TYPICAL WINTER TIME KINEMATIC
FIELDS THAT USUALLY OCCUR.  HOWEVER...THIS EVENT MAY UNFOLD A BIT
DIFFERENTLY AS A SECONDARY WARM LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WITH HIGH 60S TO NEARLY 70 DEWPOINTS.  THIS IS IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE
LACK OF SURFACE HEATING DUE TO THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER...WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL BREAKS.  THE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OR AT LEAST POCKETS OF NEARLY THAT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1000 J/KG.  AGAIN...VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH MINIMAL SURFACE
WARMING...THE FACT THAT IT IS DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN.

THESE TRENDS ARE CONFINED TO MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.  COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING
AFTERNOON...AS IT KIND OF REMINDS US OF NOVEMBER 16.  SHEAR IS
OBVIOUSLY IN PLACE...SO THE INSTABILITY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...FROM AS FAR NORTH AS
INTERSTATE 59...SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST.  THERE IS AN IMPERFECT
BALANCE BETWEEN THE BEST SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE
BETTER JET STRUCTURE AND LOW LEVEL BACKING WILL OCCUR...AND THE
MODERATE INCREASES IN INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THIS WILL
LIKELY PLACE THE BETTER BALANCE RIGHT OVER THE EAST CENTRAL HEART OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.  STAY ALERT!

03/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FRONT HAD MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS TUSCALOOSA TO FORT PAYNE. WITH
THE LOW NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHWARD WE ARE SEE THE RAIN
AND FRONT BEGIN TO SLIDE BACK TO THE EAST AS WELL LIFT NORTHWARD. A
UPDATE TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE FORTHCOMING AND WILL FOLLOW
THIS UPDATE. AS OF 1730Z THE FRONT HAD MOVED BACK THROUGH TCL AND
THE WIND HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS MOVEMENT WILL SLOWLY BE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FRONT NOW FRONT STALLED ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO ONLY DRIFT A LITTLE NORTH
TRYING TO TIME THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS A TOUCH ON THE
DIFFICULT SIDE...BUT THE PRECIPITATION TREND IS A LITTLE BIT EASIER.
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SPREAD INTO BHM AND EET OVER THE NEXT
HOUR AND IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD DRAG THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT
IFR TO MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ITS WAKE AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WENT SLOWER THAN MODELS IN CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: FAYETTE...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-231800-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1200 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE AT LEAST THROUGH 6 PM...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM TO CENTRE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY TODAY.

03/KLAWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
952 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

ALZ013-022-221615-
FAYETTE AL-PICKENS AL-
952 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PICKENS AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM CST...

AT 950 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ASHCRAFT CORNER...OR 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF REFORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FAYETTE...
  ASHCRAFT CORNER...
  BELK...
  GLEN ALLEN...
  RICHARD ARTHUR FIELD...

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8803 3353 8794 3368 8795 3392 8781
      3391 8764 3387 8763 3386 8754 3352 8778
      3352 8784 3343 8784 3335 8790 3343 8809
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 209DEG 52KT 3348 8794

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