Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXPECT SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS ALABAMA TODAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM GATHERS STRENGTH OVER THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO READINGS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT
AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER NW ALABAMA BY MID MORNING AND
QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD AS SHORT WAVE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE IN A MORE
SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY. ALL MODELS INDICATE LIFTED INDICES WILL STAY
ON THE POSITIVE SIDE DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THERE WILL BE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG
FRONT AND THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE DUE TO THE NARROW
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THE QUICK EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
AREAS WILL GET ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT SOME OF THE NW
COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO ONE-HALF INCH.

THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR MONTGOMERY BY SUNSET THURSDAY
AND EXITING SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY 9 PM. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ADD SOME SPRINKLES INTO THE
FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS UPPER
LOW PULLS QUICKLY OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A NICE WEEKEND ON TAP ACROSS AREA AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE INTENSITY OF THE WEDGE FRONT AND IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE LESS
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST ALABAMA THAN HAD
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF WILL LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON ALABAMA. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA BY MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY THRU THE
DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD...MOST LIKELY AFTER 08Z OR 09Z.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY LOW CIGS AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY MAY BE
INTRODUCED WITH THE 18Z FORECAST.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO BE A TAD HIGHER TODAY AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW SETS UP OVER AREA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR MAYBE TWO HOURS...AND NOT
MEET THE 4 HOUR CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  40  62  39  62 /  10   0  70  20  10
ANNISTON    71  43  67  42  64 /  10   0  70  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  52  63  41  63 /  10  10  70  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  48  63  41  66 /  10  10  70  10  10
CALERA      71  48  66  41  62 /  10   0  70  20  10
AUBURN      70  46  71  43  64 /  10   0  50  40  10
MONTGOMERY  73  46  71  40  66 /   0   0  50  30  10
TROY        72  44  72  41  64 /   0   0  40  40  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-031145-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
645 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.