Flood Watch 6, NWS Bismarck, ND

Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Renville County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM GRIDS THOUGH MODELS ARE
ZEROING IN ON LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

RESULTING BAND OF QPF...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLOSEST TO SURFACE LOW AND ALONG INVERTED TROUGH WHICH IS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR OVERLAND FLOODING FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOLLOWED HPC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH AND 1 AND ONE-HALF TO
TWO AND A HALF INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ON MODELS HAVE GREATER VARIATIONS...ESPECIALLY NAM WHICH
PAINTS BULLS EYE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASON AVERAGES WITH ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION CLOUD COVER AND A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXITING DEEP LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AT BEGINNING OF
SHORTER TERM. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEST COAST LOW RIDES
OVER TOP OF RIDGE BRUSHING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SURFACE LOW AGAIN MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTH TO THE DAKOTAS.

RIDGE REBUILD AGAIN FOR REMAINDER OF THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM LOW IN COLORADO TO LOW IN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST AND BE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-010-017>021-025-031>037-041-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

SHORT TERM...HW
LONG TERM....HW
AVIATION...HW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
423 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-201100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
423 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 /323 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN BISMARCK.

NH