Alert archive / North Dakota / Flash Flood Warnings in 2011

Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Bismarck, ND

June 25, 2011Bottineau County, McHenry County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this flash flood warning at Jun 25, 2011, 6:41 PM CDT for Bottineau County, McHenry County, North Dakota. It was in force for 3 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 25, 2011, 6:41 PM CDT (23:41 UTC)
Expired: Jun 25, 2011, 9:13 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Bottineau County, ND, McHenry County, ND

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 25, 7:17 PM CDT	HEAVY RAIN 2.9	Upham, ND	REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA... 2.9 IN 15 MINS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 215 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1375 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 615 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

925 
WGUS53 KBIS 252341
FFWBIS
NDC009-049-260530-
/O.NEW.KBIS.FF.W.0019.110625T2341Z-110626T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL BOTTINEAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE      
  WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN 
  IN THE WARNED AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...     
  BOTTINEAU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 10028 4831 10027 4821 10098 4900 10097

$$

SIMOSKO

1 follow-up statement

477 
WGUS73 KBIS 260213
FFSBIS

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
913 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

NDC009-049-260227-
/O.CAN.KBIS.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110626T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOTTINEAU ND-MCHENRY ND-
913 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MCHENRY
AND CENTRAL BOTTINEAU COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED 
AREA...ENDING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. AN URBAN AND SMALL 
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT. IF FLOODING 
HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 
AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4900 10028 4831 10027 4821 10098 4900 10097

$$

HEINERT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 25, 2:46 PM CDT, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 25, 2:46 PM CDT, 3 hours 55 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
246 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN.

CURRENTLY...LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE REGION...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WEAK SHEAR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY HAD THIS GOING AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE.
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND WINDS IN THE MOST ORGANIZED
STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...THE GFS
SHOWS 130 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST....WITH DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE
THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT.

LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA...ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
IS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH AMOUNTS HIGHER IN THE SOUTHWEST. WILL ERR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION AND INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

...SUNDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING AN END TO THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

EXITING UPPER TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL END ANY SHOWER THREAT
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IN NORTH DAKOTA. RIDGING TAKES CONTROL AND BUILDS NORTH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WARMER AND
GRADUALLY MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INSTABILITY ENTERING THE FORECAST AGAIN. THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...BUT BOTH MODELS DEVELOP SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EC
QUICKLY CLEARS THE ARE OUT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER
WEATHER...WHILE THE SLOWER GFS KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT INTO
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL MUGGY THROUGH THURSDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND OUR
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50F
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS BEFORE
THE 50S AGAIN RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME AND AT ANY AERODROME. THUS
HAVE SKEWED THE TAFS TOWARD VCTS AND VCSH UNTIL RADAR CLEARLY
DEFINES WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WHERE WE DO RECEIVE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE
SPARK AND WE HAVE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SETTING UP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH 3 HOUR
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO END SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW GETS SHOVED
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHICH PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR NDZ020-023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM/AVIATION....KS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 25, 4:19 AM CDT, 14 hours 22 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
419 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-260930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
419 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011 /319 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE...ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TM

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 25, 5:43 PM CDT, 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
543 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HEAVY RAIN       KENMARE                 48.67N 102.08W
06/25/2011  M1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ND ARB OBSERVER REPORTED 1 INCH IN 20 MINUTES

&&

LHUBER

Local storm report, Jun 25, 5:51 PM CDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MOHALL              48.75N 101.51W
06/25/2011  M1.00 INCH       RENVILLE           ND   PUBLIC

            1 INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES. RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

NHEINERT

Local storm report, Jun 25, 6:04 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
604 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             MOHALL                  48.76N 101.51W
06/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       RENVILLE           ND   STORM CHASER

            HAIL LASTED UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

&&

NHEINERT

Local storm report, Jun 25, 6:08 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
608 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             4 W MAXBASS             48.72N 101.23W
06/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       BOTTINEAU          ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

NHEINERT

Special weather statement, Jun 25, 6:12 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
612 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

NDZ043-044-260015-
ADAMS-BOWMAN-
512 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 510 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN BOWMAN COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GASCOYNE BY 525 PM MDT...
  REEDER BY 535 PM MDT...
  BUCYRUS BY 550 PM MDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

SIMOSKO

Local storm report, Jun 25, 6:29 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
629 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             5 NW BANTRY             48.55N 100.69W
06/25/2011  M1.50 INCH       MCHENRY            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED FOR 10 MINUTES.

&&

NHEINERT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 24, 9:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie	59 min
Jun 24, 9:53 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	McKenzie	3 hr
Jun 24, 10:47 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	McKenzie, Mountrail	4 hr
Jun 24, 10:57 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie	3 hr
Jun 25, 5:42 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	BIS	Ward	6 hr
Jun 25, 3:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Mountrail	35 min
Jun 25, 3:22 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	BIS	Adams, Bowman, Burleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Foster and 11 more	25 hr
Jun 25, 3:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mountrail	47 min
Jun 25, 3:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Mountrail, Williams	60 min
Jun 25, 3:50 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Burke, McKenzie, Mountrail, Williams	4 hr
Jun 25, 4:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burke, Renville, Ward	56 min
Jun 25, 4:17 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Mountrail	28 min
Jun 25, 4:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, Renville	53 min
Jun 25, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, Renville, Ward	25 min
Jun 25, 4:52 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Bottineau, Burke, McHenry, Mountrail, Renville, Ward	6 hr
Jun 25, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mountrail, Ward	55 min
Jun 25, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, Renville	62 min
Jun 25, 5:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Ward	19 min
Jun 25, 5:46 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	BIS	Bottineau, Renville, Ward	3 hr
Jun 25, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, McHenry	66 min
Jun 25, 5:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Renville, Ward	42 min
Jun 25, 6:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Ward	41 min
Jun 25, 6:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, McHenry, Rolette	60 min
Jun 25, 6:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, McHenry, Pierce, Rolette	67 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Dakota, 2011 Every flash flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.