Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA, WITH A WARM AND
COLD FRONT OVER THE CWA ATTM. THIS, TOGETHER WITH PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES IS CAUSING SOME HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA. THIS AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE EASTWARDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH SOME CLEARING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DAYTIME HEATING HAS CAUSE SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR COMBINED WITH CAPE OF
AROUND 1000J MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOP, AND
ACTUALLY ALLOWED ONE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH MEANS THEY ARE POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO, ANY CLEARING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME DENSE FOG AROUND THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...SECONDARY TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH REDUCED INSTABILITY, ONLY INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN THE NRN CWA AS BOUNDARY PASSES
THROUGH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IT WILL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.

MONDAY NIGHT...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRES
NOSING DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD
ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SFC WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE
FEATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE LOW TRACK TO THE EAST, BUT SHOWERS BEHIND
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A BROAD
TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE
MEAN FLOW WILL BRING CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA...WITH EXACT TIMING FOR BEST
PERIODS OF PRECIP DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.  MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
SHOW BRIEF PERIOD OF BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE BEST CHC FOR DRY WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...NEW TROF LOOKS TO SET UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WITH BETTER
CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA DURING THAT TIME. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVG FOR EARLY/MID AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SCT-BKN CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT SO EXPECT OCNL MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITION IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 22Z
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BUT
A LINGERING SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE
SCATTERED...LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST WITH HAZE BEING REPORTED
MANY SITES. AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES COOL WITH LIGHT
WINDS...LIGHT FOG MAY SET IN EARLY TONIGHT WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS
BY 15Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PREVAILING VFR WITH SCATTERED
MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

.FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...BMW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

NYZ015-022>025-055-062-PAZ038-043-044-047-048-072-081945-
YATES-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-TIOGA-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING
IN SMALL STREAMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044-081945-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREATS ARE HIGH GUSTY WIND, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NYZ045-046-056-057-PAZ039-040-081945-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-BROOME-DELAWARE-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT MAY ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. THE LARGEST
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF BROOME COUNTY AND THROUGH
DELAWARE AND OTSEGO COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
415 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

NYZ036-037-046-072115-
MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-OTSEGO NY-
415 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
MADISON...NORTH CENTRAL OTSEGO AND SOUTH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTIES...

* AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
  RAIN. STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR PECKSPORT...AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLE MINOR
  FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  AUGUSTA...PECKSPORT...HAMILTON...MADISON...SOLSVILLE...
  WATERVILLE...UNADILLA FORKS...STOCKWELL...SAUQUOIT...PARIS...
  ORISKANY FALLS...NORTH BROOKFIELD...LEONARDSVILLE...HUBBARDSVILLE...
  EXETER CENTER...CLAYVILLE...BROOKFIELD AND BRIDGEWATER.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND
COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4277 7506 4287 7589 4304 7586 4303 7521
      4291 7519 4286 7520 4287 7515 4291 7511
      4290 7506

JAB

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