Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
210 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN WARM MOIST AIR
TO THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AND SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE. AS A STORM SYTEM OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES CLOSER
FRIDAY...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM...OUR AREA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MU CAPES
NEARING 3000 J/KG. FORTUNATTELY THERE IS NOT A STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM TO ORGANIZE THE STORMS. STILL ISOLATED CELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. GOOD CU FIELD IS
FORMING ON THE SATELLITE PX AND RADAR HAS STORM CELLS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORE NORTHWEST OF SYR. GIVEN A GOOD
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS THE CAPE... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE AND BECOME SUPERCELLS PRODUCING ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. HENCE A TORNADO
WATCH IS BEING ISSUED SHORTLY.

HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE AFTER A BATCH OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MAY BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. FRIDAY...MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH AN ALMOST SIMILAR
SITUATION. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID WEST EDGES EAST WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NY AND PA. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE MIDWEST WITH SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. BY SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL BE STRUNG MORE E-W ACROSS
CENTRAL NY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL ADVERTISE LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG
WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BUT LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER HAS RESULTED IN ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY SO
FAR. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WEAK TROFS MOVING
THROUGH REGION MAY DEVELOP MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. FOR THIS REASON
INCLUDED FOUR HOUR TEMPO GROUPS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR MVFR HEAVY SHOWERS WITH CB IN CLOUD GROUP TO
IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT, HAZE AND MIST WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. AFTER 13Z, CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO VFR THROUGH 18Z. DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR IN PRIMARILY AFTN SHRA/TSRA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
228 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-271830-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
228 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 382 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING THE
PRIMARY TREATS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING
THIS POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ016>018-262000-
CAYUGA NY-ONONDAGA NY-SENECA NY-
308 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL SENECA...
NORTHWESTERN ONONDAGA AND WEST CENTRAL CAYUGA COUNTIES...

* AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SENECA
  FALLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SENNETT AT 315 PM EDT...
  JORDAN AND ELBRIDGE AT 320 PM EDT...
  PLAINVILLE AND JACKS REEF AT 325 PM EDT...
  BALDWINSVILLE AND VILLAGE GREEN AT 330 PM EDT...
  EUCLID AND CLAY AT 335 PM EDT...
  BREWERTON AT 340 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4322 7607 4283 7673 4297 7689 4303 7681
      4303 7650 4323 7648 4324 7631 4321 7628
      4323 7627 4324 7626 4322 7622 4327 7622
      4328 7619

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