Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. COOLER WEATHER AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM...
MINOR UPDATE. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ATTM WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NW. IN THIS AREA ONLY MINOR PROBLEMS
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTED QPF WILL BE LIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH
THE BEST FORCING IN THE EAST WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG
INTERSTATE 81 NOW. IN THE FAR SE SPC HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED. FEW TS
NOW IN CENTRAL AND SRN NJ. AGAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE IF WE GET
ANY SUN TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. 6KM SHEAR IS 50 KTS
ALONG THE SFC FRONT.

UPDATED AT 630 AM...LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAVE EXITED FAR ERN ZONES
W/XCPTN OF ERN SULLIVAN COUNTY. AREAS OF -SHRA WILL BE APRCHNG
STEUBEN COUNTY SHORTLY. GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE
CHGS...LOWERING SHORT TERM POPS OVER THE FAR EAST AND INCRSNG THEM
ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER. PREV BLO...

AT 340 AM...BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ACRS ERN ZONES LIFTING NEWD EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH SVRL FLS/FFW'S ISSUED. XPCT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE
OUT OF OUR ERN ZONES BY 6 AM. BACK TO THE WEST...DEEP TROF WILL
TAKE ON NEG TILT AS IT PASSES THRU THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN WITH
STRONG MID LVL CAA. DEEPER MSTR WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST TDA
BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE. SOME SUNSHINE
PSBL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND IT'S INTERACTION WITH BETTER MSTR
ACRS OUR ERN ZONES BEARS WATCHING (LATEST CANADIAN AND HRR EVEN
SUGGESTING DVLPMNT OF ANOTHER MCS-TYPE SYSTEM BY 18Z). WE DEBATED
DROPPING SOME PORTIONS OF THE FFA (PRIMARILY WRN ZONES) BUT GIVEN
NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS AND LIKELIHOOD OF ADDNL SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTN WE WILL LEAVE THE WATCH UP. ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA PSBL TNGT
AS NXT S/WV DIGS SEWD ACRS THE ERN GTLAKES. MAXES TDA SHUD BE IN
THE 65-70 RNG MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND UNSETTLED THIS PERIOD...AS ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW DVLPS TO
OUR S. ON FRIDAY XPCT MORE CLDS AND BEST CHC OF -SHRA ACRS CNTRL
NY...BUT AS CUTOFF DVLPS TO OUR S...A BETTER CHC FOR -SHRA WILL
DVLP ACRS NE PA LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT/SAT NGT. BY SATURDAY MAXES
ONLY XPCTD TO RNG FROM THE U40S TO L50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN A VERY GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THEY HAVE A DEEP
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS ROTATING INTO THE TROUGH. THIS KEEPS RAIN SHOWERS A
POSSIBILITY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BUT ON THE LOW END OF
SLIGHT CHANCE, AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE POPS DROP AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES EASTWARD.

IT IS WHAT THE TROUGH DOES NEXT THAT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON THAN
THIS MORNING. THE ECMWF KEEPS A VERY STRONG TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
JUST EAST OF MAINE. IT ALSO SHOWS WHAT COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF
AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS KEEPS THE CWA IN A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS HAD MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVES MOVING
THROUGH, BUT IS NOW SHOWING HINTS AT A LARGE RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD
OVER THE EAST COAST. IT DOES NOT QUITE HAVE THE OMEGA BLOCK
FORMATION, BUT IT IS SHOWING THAT WAVES WILL BE BLOCKED FOR A FEW
DAYS. THUS, AFTER SUNDAY, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS MUCH COOLER THAN THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA MOVING THRU THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN WILL
BRING OCNL MVFR CIG/VISBY...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHRA. BEST CHC OF TSRA AT AVP FIRST 2-4 HRS OF TAF PERIOD.
SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED...BEFORE STRATUS
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR AT ELM.

FRIDAY MORNING...STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF GENERALLY BY 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 18Z.

WINDS SWLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH SOME BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
ANY TSRA. LGT S/SE WINDS TONIGHT 5 KTS OR LESS. SW WINDS FRIDAY
ARND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN/NGT...VFR WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN AFTN/EVENING.

SAT-MON...OCNL MVFR WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN OCNL SHRA.UNSETTLED
CONDS/SCT SHWRS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FLASH FLOODING FOR NOW HAS ENDED AGAIN WITH NONE EXPECTED UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. GROUND STILL SATURATED SO ANY HEAVY RAIN COULD
CAUSE MORE FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE
SOUTH AND EAST. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD WITH
COOLER AIR COMING IN SO LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWATS FALLING
TO JUST OVER AN INCH. LOW LEVEL JET STILL STRONG BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY ALONG INTERSTATE 81 THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF HERE.

WITH THE LAST TWO DAYS OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN AGAIN RIVERS HAVE
RISEN. RIVER WARNINGS ARE OUT. THE WARNING FOR TUNKHANNOCK CREEK
AT TUNKHANNOCK HAS BEEN DROPPED. RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WAS NOT AS
GREAT AS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT WAVERLY/SAYRE HAS
GONE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. VESTAL AND CONKLIN WILL GO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTN. STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
MESHOPPEN AND WILKES-BARRE WILL MAKE IT TO FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON WARNINGS THERE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-036-
     037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SLI
AVIATION...JML
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1036 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-PAZ038-039-043-301445-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-
TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-WYOMING-
1036 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ015>018-022>025-301445-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-
TOMPKINS-
1036 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ062-PAZ040-044-047-048-072-301445-
SULLIVAN-NORTHERN WAYNE-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1036 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

TAC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NYZ057-291800-
DELAWARE NY-
130 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY...

* AT 127 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  ARKVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROXBURY AT 135 PM EDT...
  STAMFORD AT 145 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4221 7453 4218 7449 4211 7456 4211 7458
      4219 7478 4241 7464 4243 7462 4236 7444
      4235 7443

MSE

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