Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
252 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TUGHILL PLATEAU. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCT CONVECTION XPCTD TO DSPT LATE THIS AFTN/ERLY EVNG WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND PSSG OF 1ST S/WV. CRNT ACTIVITY BATTLING MID LVL CAP
AND LOW LVL DRYING. SOME MDLS (SPCLY NAM/GEM) ADVERTISING THE
PSBLTY OF SCT -SHRA WITH APRCH OF 2NDRY S/WV LATE TNGT...AND THIS
WAVE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL
LEAVE LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR NRN/NE ZONES TNGT DUE TO THIS FEATURE.
ELSEWHERE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHUD PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL LEAVE LOW CHC POPS NRN AREAS ON THU...BEST POTNL FOR SCT
--SHRA APPEARS TO BE IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME. OTRW...HIGH PRES
SHUD PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. NXT TROF MOVS INTO THE GTLAKES ON SAT.
SOME DIFFS IN THE TRACK OF THE ASSCD SFC LOW...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE RETURN OF SCT SHRA/TSRA BY SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH A LITTLE GMOS FACTORED IN.
MODELS CLOSE WITH A STRONG STORM CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EURO SLOWER THAN GFS AS
USUAL. IN ADDITION MODELS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO
UPPED THE MONDAY POP TO CHC. SUNDAY STORM A SFC LOW AND DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON THE SFC LOW TRACK BUT ALL CLOSE
ENOUGH TO UP POPS TO LIKELY WITH CHC THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR THIS AFTN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO CENTRAL NY. THESE SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
REDUCE VSBYS AND MAYBE CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR BRIEFLY WITH
ANY DIRECT HIT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR REDUCING
CONDITIONS. AVP WILL MISS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS SO LEFT TAF DRY.

LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED. WITH THE DRY AIR ADVECTION FOG WILL
BE HARD TO GET. AVP AD ELM WILL HAVE LESS THAN 5 KTS OF SFC WIND
BUT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE 15 TO 20 KTS.

THURSDAY SOME CU ESPECIALLY IN NY BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

WEST WIND AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 THIS AFTN DROPPING TO 5
KTS OR LESS TONIGHT THEN W TO NW AT 8 TO 10 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VFR.

SATURDAY AFTN TO MONDAY...VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE
TO SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-111500-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-
1054 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS WILL
BE OF A HIT AND MISS NATURE BUT COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. YOU COULD ALSO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BGM

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PAZ043-044-047-048-072-111500-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1054 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DJN

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