Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
319 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT, ANOTHER WILL APPROACH TOMORROW,
ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND BRINGS QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
RAIN HAS BEEN NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE QUIETING DOWN FOR THE NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND TODAYS LOW WILL BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. MODELS DISAGREE ON CAPE
VALUES FOR TOMORROW. GFS, SHOWING ONLY AROUND 400 TO 500 JOULES IS
MUCH LOWER THAN THE NAM, SHOWING UP NEAR 1500 JOULES. HAVE CHANCE
POPS WITH MAINLY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

ONCE THIS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
MOVE IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WHILE POPS ARE KEPT LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY WORDING OUT OF
THE FORECAST, THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A POP UP
SHOWER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH TIME LIMITED AND THUNDERSTORMS
GETTING STRONGER. MODELS CLOSE WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC WAVE
MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY. CHC POPS SATURDAY
TO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES START OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THEN FALL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD JUST AHEAD OF IT.
BRIEF MVFR AND IFR VSBYS...WHILE THE CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR AND
OCNL MVFR. THE WINDS SHIFT FROM SSE TO W WITH THE FRONT. BEHIND IT
MORE SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIE
AROUND SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT CIGS AND VSBYS FALLING TO MVFR. BY
16Z WED CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

SE TO S WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS AT TAF SITES SHIFTING TO W BY 00Z.
OVERNIGHT WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 KTS
OUT OF THE WEST LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY AFTN...VFR WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN MAINLY AFTN
SHWRS/TSTMS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VFR.

SATURDAY AFTN TO SUNDAY...VFR. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-101745-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

NYZ015>018-091815-
CAYUGA NY-ONONDAGA NY-SENECA NY-YATES NY-
110 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAYUGA...NORTHEASTERN
YATES...NORTHERN SENECA AND NORTHWESTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES...

* AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FERGUSON
  CORNERS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BELLONA STN AND DRESDEN AT 115 PM EDT...
  WILLARD AT 120 PM EDT...
  ROSE HILL AND MAC DOUGALL AT 125 PM EDT...
  FAYETTE AND WATERLOO AT 130 PM EDT...
  SENECA FALLS AND CANOGA AT 135 PM EDT...
  CAYUGA AND LEHIGH VLY JCT AT 140 PM EDT...
  FOSTERVILLE AND MONTEZUMA AT 145 PM EDT...
  THROOPSVILLE AND AUBURN AT 150 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4277 7699 4302 7696 4303 7650 4323 7647
      4324 7631 4303 7611 4257 7709 4276 7728

SLI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E AUBURN              42.93N  76.49W
08/09/2011                   CAYUGA             NY   911 CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

SLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
236 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

NYZ023>025-044-045-055-056-091930-
BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-SCHUYLER NY-TIOGA
NY-TOMPKINS NY-
236 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SCHUYLER...
NORTHEASTERN CHEMUNG...NORTHERN TIOGA...NORTHWESTERN BROOME...
SOUTHEASTERN TOMPKINS...SOUTHERN CORTLAND AND WEST CENTRAL CHENANGO
COUNTIES...

* AT 233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND
  VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DANBY...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BROOKTONDALE AND WILLSEYVILLE AT 245 PM EDT...
  SLATERVILLE SPRINGS AND WEST SLATERVILLE AT 250 PM EDT...
  CAROLINE AT 255 PM EDT...
  JENKSVILLE AND WEST NEWARK AT 300 PM EDT...
  RICHFORD AND HARFORD AT 305 PM EDT...
  EAST BERKSHIRE AND VIRGIL AT 315 PM EDT...
  HUNTS CORNERS AND LAPEER AT 320 PM EDT...
  CENTER LISLE AT 325 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4243 7652 4251 7629 4260 7588 4227 7575
      4222 7629 4220 7668 4231 7659

SLI