Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Binghamton, NY

July 18, 2011Broome County, New York; Susquehanna County, Wayne County, Pennsylvania

NWS Binghamton, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 18, 2011, 9:48 PM EDT for Broome County, New York; Susquehanna County, Wayne County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 18, 2011, 9:48 PM EDT (01:48 UTC)
Expired: Jul 18, 2011, 10:30 PM EDT
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Binghamton, NY
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Broome County, NY, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 174 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 280 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -37 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1329 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 112 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 18, 3:54 PM EDT, 5 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 3:54 PM EDT, 5 hours 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
354 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY HOT AND MORE HUMID WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS JUST
ABOUT CLEARED THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS TRYING TO FIRE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS ACROSS THE POCONOS...WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE LAKE PLAIN. THROUGH THIS EVENING
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL ACT ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG...TO FIRE MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION. WHILE THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS INCREASES OUR
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

AFTER THIS EVENING'S ACTIVITY DIMINISHES WE MAY SEE ANOTHER LULL
BEFORE A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN HEADS OUR WAY.
THESE STORMS ARE AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LESS THAN IDEAL TIMING WITH REGARDS TO
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA SHOW THAT
WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MLCAPES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE...WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AROUND.
AGAIN MAIN CONCERNS ARE DAMAGING WINDS WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. AFTER 06Z AS THE H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DROP OFF. ACTUAL FROPA IS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK BUT IT
SHOULD BE A DRY PASSAGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING TEMPS. DESPITE A TON OF INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY...A CAP WILL PREVENT ANYTHING FROM FIRING UP. BY THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE RETURN FLOW
WILL PUMP A WELL ADVERTISED HOT AND HUMID AIR-MASS OUR WAY. 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO 21/22C WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS
UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TOUCH OFF A FEW STORMS GIVEN OUR ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC WITH LTL CHG TO GUIDANCE. MAIN THEME WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AS HI PRES OVER THE CNTRL U.S. BUILDS EWD...BUT A
MEANDERING FNTL BNDRY WILL PROVIDE THE THREAT FOR SCT TSRA. TIMING
OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME RNG DIFFICULT DUE TO POTNL FOR
NOCTURNAL MCS DVLPMNT...SO FOLLOWED HPC WITH CHC POPS THRU THE PD.
MAXES WELL INTO THE 90S LATE WEEK WITH FCST HEAT INDICES REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA THU/FRI/SAT AFTNS...CRNT FCST HAS HIEST VALUES
0F 100-105 FROM THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES INTO NE PA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCS WHICH MOVD THRU THE RGN THIS MRNG HAS EXITED AREA. SUBSEQUENT
REDVLPMNT IS IN QUESTION DUE TO CLD CVR WHICH HAS CAPPED
TEMPS...BUT CLEARING WORKING INTO THE FCST AREA ATTM (2 PM). BASED
ON K INDICES...BEST CHC FOR ADNL TSRA APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SRN
TIER AND NE PA WHERE BEST K INDICES ARE FOUND LATE TDA AS NXT WEAK
S/WV CRNTLY OVER NRN MI SLIDES SEWD. THEREFORE RESTRICTED CB
GROUPS TO ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP WITH BEST POTNL LATE AFTN INTO THE EVNG
HRS. XPCT FAIRLY WDSPRD MVFR IN HZ/BR LATER TNGT...WITH MVFR IN
ANY TSRA THAT DVLP. SAT PIX SHOW BAND OF LOWER CLDS WITH THE
ACTUAL CDFNT...AND RUC PROFILES SUGGEST WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY STRATUS LATER TNGT. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR TUE MRNG.
WINDS THIS AFTN GNRLY SW TO W 10 KTS...BECMG LGT NWLY TNGT AND
NRLY 10-15 KTS ON TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...GNRLY VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR BR/FG AT KELM DURING THE
EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. ON WED/THUR/FRI...MAINLY AFTN/EVNG CHCS FOR MVFR
IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 4:02 PM EDT, 5 hours 46 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
402 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-192015-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
402 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A NEW
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 90S AND DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 70S...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOONS ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKE REGION AND IN THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF NY AND NORTHEAST PA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HEDEN

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 18, 7:57 PM EDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
757 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

NYZ017-018-025-036-044-045-056-190100-
BROOME NY-CAYUGA NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-MADISON NY-ONONDAGA
NY-TOMPKINS NY-
757 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CORTLAND...NORTHEASTERN
TOMPKINS...NORTHWESTERN BROOME...NORTHWESTERN CHENANGO...SOUTHEASTERN
CAYUGA...SOUTHERN ONONDAGA AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

* AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NILES...
  AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OTISCO AND MONTVILLE AT 805 PM EDT...
  GLEN HAVEN AND SEMPRONIUS AT 810 PM EDT...
  SCOTT AND COMO AT 815 PM EDT...
  PREBLE AND BALTIMORE AT 820 PM EDT...
  HOMER AND CORTLAND WEST AT 825 PM EDT...
  EAST HOMER AND CORTLAND AT 830 PM EDT...
  MCGRAW AND TRIPOLI AT 835 PM EDT...
  SOLON AT 840 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4283 7589 4257 7557 4232 7602 4262 7637
      4285 7658 4305 7625

SLI

Special weather statement, Jul 18, 8:39 PM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
839 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

NYZ062-PAZ048-190115-
PIKE PA-SULLIVAN NY-
839 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL PIKE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

* AT 836 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GLEN SPEY...AND
  MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MILLRIFT AT 845 PM EDT...
  MILFORD AT 850 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4134 7472 4134 7475 4131 7480 4142 7494
      4156 7478 4150 7468 4149 7475 4146 7474
      4145 7476 4143 7473 4140 7473 4139 7471
      4136 7468

/DJP

Local storm report, Jul 18, 8:54 PM EDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
854 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOMER                   42.64N  76.18W
07/18/2011                   CORTLAND           NY   911 CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 90

&&

BLL

Local storm report, Jul 18, 8:55 PM EDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
855 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW CORTLAND           42.63N  76.22W
07/18/2011                   CORTLAND           NY   911 CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

BLL

Special weather statement, Jul 18, 9:45 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
945 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

NYZ022>024-190215-
CHEMUNG NY-SCHUYLER NY-STEUBEN NY-
945 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL STEUBEN...
NORTHWESTERN CHEMUNG AND SOUTHWESTERN SCHUYLER COUNTIES...

* AT 941 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SONORA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONTEREY AND MEADS CREEK AT 955 PM EDT...
  HORNBY AT 1000 PM EDT...
  BEAVER DAMS AT 1005 PM EDT...
  CHAMBERS AND GIBSON AT 1010 PM EDT...
  ELMIRA ARPT AND BIG FLATS AT 1015 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4217 7675 4203 7699 4235 7730 4246 7711

/DJP

Local storm report, Jul 18, 9:46 PM EDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
946 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             NWS BINGHAMTON          42.21N  75.99W
07/18/2011  M1.25 INCH       BROOME             NY   NWS OFFICE

            NWS EMPLOYEE COLLECTED AND MEASURED THE HAIL

&&

BLL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Binghamton, NY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 8:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Cayuga, Chenango, Cortland, Onondaga, Tompkins	60 min
Jul 18, 8:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Tioga, Tompkins	46 min
Jul 18, 9:45 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Schuyler	30 min
Jul 18, 9:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Chemung, Schuyler, Steuben	65 min
Jul 19, 12:37 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Seneca, Tompkins	53 min
Jul 19, 1:24 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Tioga, Tompkins	66 min
Jul 19, 2:09 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Broome	66 min
Jul 18, 8:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Pike	36 min
Jul 18, 10:29 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Lackawanna, Susquehanna	46 min
Jul 19, 2:53 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Lackawanna, Susquehanna, Wyoming	42 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.