Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
400 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN DRYER AND A BIT COOLER WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT STRETCHED ALONG ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SWWD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE THIS AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD IN THE
WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BEST SHEAR AND CHC FOR ANY
SEVERE TSRA REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS NE SECTIONS OF OUR FA THRU
NORTHERN NYS AND NEW ENGLAND. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM ELSEWHERE BUT BELIEVE OVERALL SVR CHC IS LOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU REMAINDER OF
AFTN EARLY EVENING BEFORE FRONT CLRS MOST OF FA BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING A DRY FCST FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EWD FROM GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND THURS, PUSHING THE
FRONT SWD NEAR THE DELMARVA. PERHAPS SLGT CHC ACROSS THE FAR SRN
PORTION OF OUR FA THURSDAY, BUT LEFT OUT OF THE FCST AS MAJORITY
OF MODELS ARE DRY. LATE THURS NGT AND FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE NORTH AS WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVES NORTH.
AS OF NOW, LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC FOR PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL NY, ESP ALONG AND EAST OF I81. INCREASED POPS SOME INTO
HIGH CHC, BUT COULD SEE NEED FOR LIKELY POPS FOR PART OF THE AREA
IF TREND CONTINUES NEXT RUNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRECIP PUSHES EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE AREA AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DUE TO WATCH ISSUANCE DISCUSSION WILL BE BRIEF. CLOSELY FOLLOWED
HPC GUIDANCE WITH ONLY VERY MINOR TWEEKS. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SHUD
PREVAIL WITH COLD FNTL PSSG ON MONDAY. CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA MONDAY...OTRW
FAIR WX TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF (SAT/SUN) AND BEHIND (TUE/WED) THE FNT.
TEMPS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTY ABV NORMAL...WITH MAXES GNRLY L/M
80S AND MINS U50S TO M60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CDFNT WILL PROGRESS ACRS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG.
WATCH JUST ISSUED...BUT CONFIDENCE HERE IN ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLD SVR IS VERY LOW. BEST CHC FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEAR TO BE
OVER THE FAR NE SXNS OF THE BGM CWA. THE SCENARIO WE HAVE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IS WHERE WDLY SCT NON-SVR TSRA DVLP ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE FNT ARND 19Z...TRACKING SEWD DURING LATE AFTN/EVNG INTO THE
SRN TIER AND NE PA. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF CVRG IS ALSO A BIG
QUESTION SO FOR NOW WE JUST PLAYED A 2 HR TEMPO PD DURING THE AFTN
WITH A CB GROUP. ONLY XCPTN WAS AT SYR/RME WHERE WE PLAYED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SHRA WITH CB. UPDATES WILL BE MADE- IF NEEDED- ONCE
SITN BCMS MORE CLEAR. OTHER CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WAS THE POTNL
FOR LOW CLDS OR VLY FOG LATER TNGT ABD INDICATED MVFR MOST CNTRL
NY SITES LATE TNGT. VFR PREVAILS ON THU. WINDS THIS AFTN WRLY
10-20 KTS...BECMG NWLY 5 KTS TNGT AND NNWLY 10-15 KTS THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SOME LGT VALLEY FOG PSBL EARLY
EACH AM.

MON...SCT TSRA WITH MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JML
NEAR TERM...JML
SHORT TERM...JML
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
229 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

NYZ009-018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-048-072-071830-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-
SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-
LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
229 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE... WITH WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH OR LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM WILL
BE NORTH OF THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NYZ015>017-022-071830-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-STEUBEN-
229 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH OR SMALL HAIL. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING COULD
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

NYZ036-037-062000-
MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-
315 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MADISON AND SOUTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTIES...

* AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  CHITTENANGO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PERRYVILLE AT 320 PM EDT...
  LENOX AND CANASTOTA AT 330 PM EDT...
  WAMPSVILLE AND PETERBORO AT 335 PM EDT...
  ONEIDA AND ONEIDA CASTLE AT 340 PM EDT...
  SHERRILL AND STOCKBRIDGE AT 345 PM EDT...
  VERNON AND AUGUSTA AT 350 PM EDT...
  VERNON CENTER AND ORISKANY FALLS AT 355 PM EDT...
  CLINTON AND KIRKLAND AT 400 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

LAT...LON 4320 7514 4314 7513 4305 7521 4293 7520
      4294 7591 4309 7592 4309 7596 4310 7598
      4313 7596

MLJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
423 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

NYZ036-037-046-062115-
MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-OTSEGO NY-
423 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ONEIDA AND NORTHERN OTSEGO COUNTIES...

* AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  LEONARDSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EXETER CENTER AT 430 PM EDT...
  OAKSVILLE AND RICHFIELD SPRINGS AT 435 PM EDT...
  COOPERSTOWN AND TODDSVILLE AT 445 PM EDT...
  SPRINGFIELD AND BOWERSTOWN AT 450 PM EDT...
  MIDDLEFIELD AND EAST SPRINGFIELD AT 455 PM EDT...
  CHERRY VALLEY AND WESTFORD AT 505 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4271 7529 4289 7526 4288 7520 4286 7520
      4287 7515 4288 7513 4287 7500 4283 7492
      4284 7490 4287 7489 4286 7473 4284 7465
      4282 7464 4276 7466 4262 7463