Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...CATSKILLS AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 AM...A SCATTERED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH NY AND PA. AT 15Z THE FRONT
STRETCHED FROM NEAR SYR TO W OF ELM SOUTHWESTWARD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S PRODUCING CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG. STILL SOME MID LEVEL WARMING
AND SHEAR HAS MADE IT HARD FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS TO GET GOING BUT
THE POTENTIAL TO OVERCOME THIS REMAINS. FRONT WILL PUSH SE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA REACHING THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS BY THE LATER
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
MUCH DRIER LESS HUMID AIR MOVING IN. DEW POINTS IN WESTERN NY ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE TO
THE AREA IN HOW IT FEELS OUTSIDE TONIGHT VERSUS LAST NIGHT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP INTO THEIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES START TO COOL OFF. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DROP OFF WITH THE DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
DIMINISHING. MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED.
OVERALL THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE BUT SOME EXTRA CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A H5 TROF MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER
MAINE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING
IN THE 60S. IN FACT BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOW TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR COLDEST SPOTS WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TEMPS BEING TO REBOUND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR
SOUTH AND A RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 330 PM...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TANDEM WARM AND COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR NOW HAVE IT DRY. CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...AND THEN COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE IDEAS AND HPC GUIDANCE FRONTAL
PROGS LOOK REASONABLE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY
WITH DRIER WX...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FRONT AND SHOWERS AGAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIVER VALLEYS HAVE LIGHT FOG OR HAZE WITH VSBY 3 TO 5 SM UNTIL
14Z. BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROUGH FROM
EAST OF KRME TO KBGM AND MOVED EAST THIS MORNING. AS OF 12Z CUMULUS
EXTEND FROM THIS LINE SW TO KIPT. WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
AS THIS LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SE PASS KAVP. TO THE WEST OF THIS
LINE FEW CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE
AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH
CIGS 035 TO 045 AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONT. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 15
TO 20 KT AND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
AND WINDS DROPPING OFF TOWARD EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

THU TO FRI... VFR.

FRI NGT TO SUN... MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BMW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
441 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-PAZ038-020845-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
TIOGA-BROOME-BRADFORD-
441 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOME OF THE MORE RURAL VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEDEN

NYZ046-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-020845-
OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
441 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

HEDEN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1044 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

NYZ022>025-011515-
CHEMUNG NY-SCHUYLER NY-STEUBEN NY-TOMPKINS NY-
1044 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL STEUBEN...
NORTHWESTERN CHEMUNG...SOUTHERN SCHUYLER AND SOUTHWESTERN TOMPKINS
COUNTIES...

* AT 1042 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG
  GUSTY WINDS.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THURSTON...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMPBELL AND COOPERS PLAINS AT 1050 AM EDT...
  MEADS CREEK AND PAINTED POST AT 1055 AM EDT...
  HORNBY AND GIBSON AT 1100 AM EDT...
  CHAMBERS AND BEAVER DAMS AT 1105 AM EDT...
  TOMPKINS CORNERS AND MILLPORT AT 1110 AM EDT...
  HORSEHEADS NORTH AND HORSEHEADS AT 1115 AM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4234 7666 4211 7665 4213 7738 4231 7739

DGM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1108 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

NYZ022>025-011545-
CHEMUNG NY-SCHUYLER NY-STEUBEN NY-TOMPKINS NY-
1108 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL STEUBEN...NORTHERN
CHEMUNG...SOUTHERN SCHUYLER AND SOUTHWESTERN TOMPKINS COUNTIES...

* AT 1105 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG
  GUSTY WINDS.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HORNBY...AND MOVING EAST
  AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TOMPKINS CORNERS AND BIG FLATS AIRPORT AT 1115 AM EDT...
  MILLPORT AND HORSEHEADS NORTH AT 1120 AM EDT...
  ODESSA AND CATHARINE AT 1125 AM EDT...
  ALPINE AND BREESPORT AT 1130 AM EDT...
  CAYUTA AND ERIN AT 1135 AM EDT...
  SWARTWOOD AND NEWFIELD HAMLET AT 1140 AM EDT...
  NEWFIELD AT 1145 AM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

LAT...LON 4237 7654 4215 7657 4213 7712 4231 7714

DGM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1200 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

PAZ043-044-047-011700-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-WYOMING PA-
1200 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LUZERNE...SOUTHERN
WYOMING AND WEST CENTRAL LACKAWANNA COUNTIES...

* AT 1154 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 19 MILES WEST OF SWEET
  VALLEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RED ROCK AT 1210 PM EDT...
  RICKETTS GLEN STATE PARK AT 1215 PM EDT...
  KASSON BROOK AND SWEET VALLEY AT 1225 PM EDT...
  STULL AND NOXEN AT 1230 PM EDT...
  HARVEYS LAKE AND RUGGLES AT 1235 PM EDT...
  FERN BROOK AND DALLAS AT 1240 PM EDT...
  ORANGE AND CENTER MORELAND AT 1245 PM EDT...
  RANSOM AND CARVERTON AT 1250 PM EDT...
  HARDING AND DURYEA AT 1255 PM EDT...

SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM. THIS
STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4125 7633 4130 7633 4148 7626 4152 7572
      4122 7569

MSE