River Flood Warning 55, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
905 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
FINALLY SHIFTING EAST. HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DOT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES
BACK IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALONG AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATED AS OF 215 PM (1815Z)... CONVECTIVE LINE COMING INTO CNTRL
NY/N-CNTRL PA FROM THE W...SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY LATE THIS
AFTN...AS IT ENCOUNTERS ML CAPES APPROACHING 1500...DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR ARND 40 KT...AND STGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES.
HRRR/OTHER MESO-SCALE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL LINEAR STRUCTURES WILL FOLLOW THIS ONE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING PD. SVR WW #213 IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CNTRL
NY/NE PA UNTIL 01Z WED.

SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE...AS UPPER-LVL FORCING
WANES...AND THE BLYR STABILIZES. AREAS OF LOW CIGS/FOG COULD FORM
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIG RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM EDT...WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PLAGUING THE CWA THIS EVNG. SVR TSTM WATCH EXPIRED
AT 01Z. WL HANDLE WITH LOCALIZED WARNING RATHER THAN EXTENDING IN
TIME FOR SVRL MORE HRS. LEADING EDGE OF STORMS MVG THRU NEPA WL MV
INTO, AS OF YET, UNTAPPED AIR. THESE STORMS HV BCM BETTER
ORGANIZED AS THEY APPCH I-81 CORRIDOR. CANNOT RULE OUT CONT/D SVR
THREAT THRU APPROX 04Z AS THEY MV INTO ERN SXNS OF CWA. PLENTY OF
FRCG FM UL WV ALONG WITH FOCUSED LLJ NOSING INTO NEPA/CNTRL NY WL
SUSTAIN HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION THRU MIDNIGHT.

HV UPDATED ALL HRLY GRIDS FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AND INCLUDED
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED OVR THE
NEXT SVRL HRS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
UPDATED AS OF 220 PM (1820Z)... THIS WILL BE BRIEF...OWING TO
NEAR-TERM SVR WX CONCERNS.

WARM SECTOR AMS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WED...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT LESS
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED...AS OPPOSED TO WHAT WE'RE SEEING TODAY. A
SUBTLE UPPER-LVL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SW BY
18Z...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED TO RE-DEVELOP
BY THEN.

LATE WED NIGHT AND THU...WE'RE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN UPPER-LVL
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT TO COME IN FROM THE W. EXPECTED
TIMING...AS OF THIS JUNCTURE...WOULD BRING THESE SYSTEMS THROUGH
EARLIER THU...GENERALLY 12-18Z...AND THIS TIMING COULD REDUCE THE
SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION AT ALL...WOULD AT LEAST PLACE
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL SVR TSRA THU
AFTN...AS STG FORCING WILL BE AT PLAY. AT ANY RATE...LIKELY POPS
WILL STILL BE UTILIZED THIS PD...EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM W TO
E BY LATER IN THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MED RNG. CRNT ACTIVE WX
PRECLUDES IN DEPTH DISCUSSION...XPCT LINGERING -SHRA ON
FRIDAY...THEN DRY WX SAT AND SAT NGT. NXT FNTL SYSTEM APRCHS AND
WENT WITH SLOWER SOLUTION PREFERRED BY HPC...WITH A CHC FOR -SHRA
SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
TERMINALS FIRST 2-4 HOURS OF FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, BUT HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. AFTER RAIN MOVES EAST EXPECT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN BR IN WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 14Z AT TERMINALS WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS IN
THE MORNING AND ADDITIONAL CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
LITTLE CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM 3-8KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
IN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WED MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...SCT MVFR IN TSRA.

THU NGT-FRI NGT...VFR AND MVFR MAINLY CENTRAL NY IN SCATTERED
SHRA.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022-036-037.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PVN

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