Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OLD COLD FNT BASICALLY STALLLED OVER ERN PA WITH CONV CONTG TO
RIDE NEWRD ALONG THE BNDRY. UPR WV PASSING IN THE WLY ALNG WITH
HTG WILL HELP TRIGGER CONV...WITH THE BEST CHANCE TODAY OVER THE
XTRM SE PART OF THE FCST AREA. MID LVL WINDS DO FAVOR STORMS TO
KEEP MVG...BUT WITH THE STALLED BNDRY...TRAINING OF CELLS PSBL.
PWATS OVER NE PA ARE FCSTD TO BE NEAR 1.50 INCHES SO SOME FLOODING
IN AREAS OF TRAINING CELLS CERTAINLY PSBL. GOOD AMT OF CONV DEBRIS
CLDS AT THE MID AND UPR LVLS SHD LIMIT HTG AND KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME
TODAY. WIND FIELDS ARE UNREMARKABLE AND CAPES SIMPLY NOT ALL THAT
HIGH SO CHANCE FOR SVR SEEMS TO BE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKS TO BE A WRM AND DRY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE LAKES
BLDS IN SAT. JUST A CHANCE OF SOME EARLY MRNG PCPN OVER THE XTRM
SE...OTRW SHR TERM PD SHD BE PCPN FREE. AS THE CANADIAN MARITIME
LOW DEEPENS ONCE AGAIN...SFC HIPRES HOLDS AND HGTS BLD OVER THE
LAKES. NAM DOES SHOW SOME VERY WEAK WVS PASSING ON SUN...BUT
THRESHOLD FOR PCPN DOES NOT APPEAR HI ENUF FOR INCLUSION IN THE
FCST.

TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED FROM THE BLENDED MOS GUID...BUT ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE CRNT FCST. SIGNIFICAT WRMG IS XPCTD...ESP ON SUNDAY WEAR
TEMPSCOULD PUSH 90 SOMEPLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEVIATED LTL FROM HPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED FINE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL GRADUALLY BCM MORE NWLY WITH AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPR TROF
OVER QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A CDFNT ACRS THE RGN
ON MON NGT WITH CHC FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA MON/MON NGT SPCLY ACRS CNTRL
NY. FNT MAY BE LINGERING ACRS FAR SE ZONES BY 12Z TUE SO REATAINED
LOW CHC POPS THERE FOR EARLY TUE. OTRW HI PRES FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH MAXES IN THE U70S TO
80 WITH A NICE STRETCH OF SUMMER WX ON TAP FOR MID TO LATE NXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT SYR/RME...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU 18Z SAT. AT AVP...XPCT
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS WITH MVFR. ACRS THE
SRN TIER AT ITH/ELM/BGM WE SHUD SEE SCT TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURENCE NOT GREAT ENUF TO PUT IN THE TAFS...SO PLAYED A CB GROUP
THERE THIS AFTN. GREATER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVER PA BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTNL OF SCT DVLPMNT ALONG THE CDFNT ACRS
CNTRL NY LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LATER TNGT...CLDS WILL
DCRS FROM NW TO SE. TUFF CALL FOR FOG AT ELM AS MUCH DRIER BL AIR
WILL BE WORKING BEHIND THE FNT...REACHING ELM ARND 06Z. FOR NOW
WILL PLAY MVFR RESTRICTIONS THERE TWDS DAYBREAK...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE. VFR ALL SITES TMRW. WINDS THIS AFTN AND TNGT L&V BUT
TRENDING TWDS LGT NRLY...AND NWLY ON SAT ARND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LCL
IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY AT ELM EACH MORNING.

MON...SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN/NGT. LOW CLDS WITH PATCHY MVFR LATE
MON NGT.

TUE/WED...VFR. POTNL FOR VLY FOG AT ELM LATE AT NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

NYZ009-018-036-037-081900-
MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA NY-
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTIES...

* AT 209 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND VERY
  HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH SYRACUSE...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DE WITT AT 220 PM EDT...
  NORTH SYRACUSE AND EAST SYRACUSE AT 225 PM EDT...
  FAYETTEVILLE AT 240 PM EDT...
  CICERO AT 245 PM EDT...
  MINOA AT 250 PM EDT...
  BRIDGEPORT AND LOWER SOUTH BAY AT 300 PM EDT...

IF ON OR NEAR ONEIDA LAKE...SEEK SHELTER NOW. GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4314 7565 4297 7618 4312 7631 4324 7612
      4321 7608 4321 7604 4319 7601 4319 7596
      4316 7592 4316 7589 4332 7587 4333 7589
      4338 7586

MSE