Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Binghamton, NY

345 
WGUS71 KBGM 040118
FFSBGM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

NYC007-107-PAC115-131-040400-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-110504T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TIOGA NY-BROOME NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-WYOMING PA-
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR
WYOMING...SUSQUEHANNA...BROOME AND TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 916 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER 
THIS EVENING...HAS TAPERED OFF...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL 
CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING. SINCE STREAMS ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH AND 
SOILS ARE SATURATED...RUNOFF PROBLEMS MAY STILL OCCUR.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AUBURN
  CENTER...FACTORYVILLE...GREAT BEND...HOP BOTTOM...LACEYVILLE...LAKE
  CAREY...MEHOOPANY...MESHOPPEN...MONTROSE...NEW MILFORD...
  NICHOLSON...NOXEN...OSTERHOUT...TUNKHANNOCK...APALACHIN...
  BINGHAMTON...CANDOR...CASTLE CREEK...CHENANGO BRIDGE...CHENANGO
  FORKS...CONKLIN...ENDWELL...HARPURSVILLE...KIRKWOOD...LISLE...
  NEWARK VALLEY...NICHOLS...OWEGO...SANITARIA SPRINGS...VESTAL...
  VESTAL CENTER...WHITNEY POINT AND WINDSOR.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL
AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4138 7629 4165 7620 4165 7612 4200 7615
      4200 7649 4231 7633 4230 7625 4235 7624
      4238 7629 4240 7628 4241 7586 4225 7585
      4224 7563 4220 7563 4219 7550 4142 7584

$$

MLJ

158 
WGUS71 KBGM 040358
FFSBGM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1158 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

NYC007-107-PAC115-131-040407-
/O.EXP.KBGM.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-110504T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TIOGA NY-BROOME NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-WYOMING PA-
1158 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EDT FOR WYOMING...
SUSQUEHANNA...BROOME AND TIOGA COUNTIES...

ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  OVERNIGHT 
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING 
PROBLEMS...THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL
AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 4138 7629 4165 7620 4165 7612 4200 7615
      4200 7649 4231 7633 4230 7625 4235 7624
      4238 7629 4240 7628 4241 7586 4225 7585
      4224 7563 4220 7563 4219 7550 4142 7584

$$

/PVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
551 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT THAT LIES
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY OF
NEW YORK. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON THE
NORTH SIDE AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT AND
TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 6 PM... HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL PA AND IS TRACKING
NORTHEAST. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SCENARIOS SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSION OF HEAVY RAIN IN A BAND OVER
SOUTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
RAINS... WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES... TO TRAIN FROM BRADFORD
COUNTY NORTHEAST ACROSS BROOME/CHENANGO/CORTLAND/MADISON/ONEIDA
COUNTIES. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST IN THOSE
AREAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPANDING THE FLOOD WATCH EAST TO
DELAWARE/PIKE/WAYNE/SULLIVAN COUNTIES... ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS HEADING NORTHWEST OF THOSE AREAS
AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY
MOVING INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CWA AROUND 00Z
TONIGHT. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF PA THE WESTERN CATSKILLS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BREAK INTO A LITTLE BIT OF SUN TODAY. TEMPS IN
AVP HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 70S. MONTICELLO IS NEARING 80. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S ATTM.

LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A STRONG CAP BETWEEN
700MB AND 500MB. THE MODELS SHOW THIS CAP TO ERODE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, POSSIBLY EVEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE IT DOES, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM BASICALLY I81 EAST. LOOKING
AT THE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE STORMS, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TO A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE RUC IS SHOWING CAPE NEAR
AVP OF AROUND 825 J/KG WITH GOOD BULK SHEAR VALUES. THE 0-1 KM IS
ABOUT 25KTS, THE 0-3 IS AROUND 30 KTS, AND THE 0-6KM IS ABOUT 45
KTS. THESE WOULD INDICATE SOME SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, IF THEY CAN GET GOING. THE LAPSE RATES WILL WORK AGAINST
THE STORMS, WITH ONLY 6.9 C/KM FROM 950 TO 700MB, LEAVING THIS
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. THE 700-500 MB IS SHOWING TO BE STABLE AT
5.5 C/KM.

LOOKING AT RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL, THE PWATS IS AROUND
1.21 INCHES OVER AVP. OVER BGM 1.39 INCHES. THIS IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAY. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED CONDITIONS OF THE CWA
AND THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPED, WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH AS ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING THE RAIN TONIGHT, WILL EJECT TO THE
NE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO CUT OFF OVER THE CWA
TOMORROW. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE SFC LOW, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH TEMPS DROPPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION MAY TRY TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.

BY THURSDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO GIVE THE CWA A QUIET WEATHER DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND
SOME, BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND AS BRIEF SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION MAY SPREAD SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHEST POPS WESTERN/SOUTHERN PTN OF
FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 240 PM TUE... AFTER UNSETTLED/SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND...OWING TO A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERN U.S.
TROUGH...HEIGHT RISES/IMPROVING WX EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR EARLY MAY ANTICIPATED SAT/SUN
(HIGHS IN THE 50S/NEAR 60)...THEN MODIFYING TEMPS EXPECTED MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 18Z, SFC LOW OVER WEST VA WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING UP THROUGH
EASTERN PA INTO SOUTHERN NY. SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
BOUNDARY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON BACK SIDE AND SHOWERY WEATHER
NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR KRME/KSYR, WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WITH
POSSIBLE IFR BETWEEN 18Z-22Z IN BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN. AFTER 06Z, IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAIN AND LOW CIGS. AFTER 13Z CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS.

FOR KITH/KELM, WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z WITH
POSSIBLE IFR BETWEEN 18Z-22Z IN BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN. AFTER 04Z,
IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAIN AND LOW CIGS. AFTER 13Z CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS.

AT KBGM, PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 20Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR SHOWERS.
AFTER 20Z, WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 05Z WITH
POSSIBLE IFR BETWEEN 20Z-24Z IN BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN. AFTER 05Z,
IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAIN AND LOW CIGS. AFTER 13Z CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS.

AT KAVP, VFR THROUGH 22Z, THEN POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH CB MENTIONED
TO IMPLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. AFTER 02Z, LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAIN IMPROVING TO LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER
13Z BUT STILL MVFR CIGS.

VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND INCREASING WED MORNING TO 10-12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH THU...POSSIBLE MVFR MAINLY NY...IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THU NGT...VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ038-039-043-044-
     047.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...RRM/SLI
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
404 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-042015-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-
404 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ038-039-043-044-047-042015-
BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-
404 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ040-048-072-042015-
NORTHERN WAYNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
404 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY ALSO OCCUR, LEADING TO A SMALL THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NYZ057-062-042015-
DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-
404 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. AT THIS TIME
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CATSKILLS REGION. THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR CHANGES IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN...AS
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO A RESURGENCE OF
FLOODING IN THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.