Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Binghamton, NY

505 
WGUS71 KBGM 280944
FFSBGM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
544 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

NYC101-280953-
/O.EXP.KBGM.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-110428T0945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STEUBEN NY-
544 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 AM EDT FOR SOUTHERN
STEUBEN COUNTY...

REPORTS FROM LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE THAT FLASH FLOODING HAS 
ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL
AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 4220 7774 4228 7710 4201 7698 4201 7773

$$

CMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IS
MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION MIDDAY THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER AND UNSETTLED...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE 1045 PM...
TORNADO WATCH ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE BROKEN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THE
INITIAL LINE AND ALSO TO UP POPS BEHIND IT AS THE NEXT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA AND
THE CENT SRN TIER. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 60S CLOSE TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MINOR S/WV TROF/MESOVORT MOVING THROUGH ERN OH/WRN PA AND NY WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING NE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. ATMOS OVER
CNY/NEPA WAS DESTABILIZING...HOWEVER IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ACARS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIDLVL
CAP DUE TO INCRSD WARMING ALOFT. MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE THUS
ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE ATTM...AND ARE LIKELY TO STABILIZE
IN THIS RANGE. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS INDICATE
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO BE STIMULATED BY THE DYNAMICS ALOFT
WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO FORM A LINEAR STRUCTURE
UPSTREAM FROM US...AND TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MID-
LATE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. ATTM DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
AND EHI VALUES WOULD SUGGEST TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...HENCE
PART OF OUR AREA IS WITHIN A TOR WATCH. ALL THIS DEPENDS ON BEING
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WARMER MID-LVLS.

LATER ON...THERE APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE BREAK
IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE WEE HOURS...BEFORE THE MAJOR
TROF AND OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
ILLUSTRATE THIS IDEA IN THE GRID FCSTS WITH JUST MINOR CHC POPS
FOR SVRL HOURS OVERNIGHT BEFORE BRINGING CATEGORICAL POPS BACK IN
JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

HIGH PWATS AND RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK EXCEEDING 200-400
PERCENT OF NORMAL MAKES JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA VULNERABLE TO
FLASH FLOODING DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY AXES OF HVY PRECIP SET UP.
THIS IS ALMOST NEVER EASY TO PREDICT...HOWEVER IN THE LAST 24
HOURS THE HEAVIEST AXES OF RAIN HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NRN
FINGER LAKES REGION...AND ALSO FROM BRADFORD COUNTY...TO BROOME TO
OTSEGO COUNTY. FFG SUGGESTS ANYTHING APCHG 0.5-1.0 INCH/HOUR RATES
WOULD CAUSE FLOODING.

A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT IS FCST BY THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE
TO CROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. WITH HIGH PWATS CONTINUING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR
THE MORNING.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY TO BE VERY WINDY.
STRONG ISALLOBARIC COUPLET ALONG WITH DESTABILIZING CAA ALOFT AND
GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WIND GUST POTENTIAL INTO THE 40
MPH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME FOR WIND
ADVISORY ISSUANCE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE CONSIDERED ON LATER SHIFTS.

UPPER TROF IS THEN LIKELY TO ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE DRY SLOT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY...BUT DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSTABLE. QPF LOOKS LIGHT
AND GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SURFACE AND ALOFT BRINGS DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UL RIDGE AXIS AT THE START OF THE PD WL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY. EC IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BUT EXPECT SFC
FRONTAL BNDRY TO MV THRU THE GREAT LKS WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THRU SUN/SUN NGT. HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE EURO.

THUS, CHC POPS FM 12Z SUNDAY ON FOR STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY NR THE
REGION. LATER IN THE PD, THE EURO DRIVES A WV UP INTO THE CWA BY THE
END OF THE PD. MEANWHILE THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THRU WITH DRY
WX MVG IN BHND MON/MON NGT. WL MAINTAIN CHC FOR SHOWERS SIMILAR  TO
HPC GUIDANCE THRU TUE NGT. HWVR LONG TERM FCST IS UP IN THE AIR
AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND MAYBE IFR WITH A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES BY 04Z.
AFTER THIS INITIAL SHOT CIGS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THEN DROPPING TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 8Z. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT A
SECOND BATCH OF STEADIER RAIN AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN
AROUND 10Z. AROUND 16Z THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH ENDING THE
RAIN...WHILE CIGS BECOME BKN AND LIFT TO VFR FOR THE AFTN.

A BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SE TO S WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS TONIGHT. WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS A
WIND GUST COULD EXCEED 35 KTS WITH THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITES ELM
AND SYR BEFORE THE LINE DECREASES SOME IN INTENSITY. WITH THE
FRONT WINDS SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT TO FRI NGT...MVFR MAINLY CENTRAL NY IN SCATTERED -SHRA.

SAT/SAT NGT...VFR.

SUN TO MON...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN ON SATURATED SOILS HAS CAUSED MINOR FLOODING AT SVRL
POINTS ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER SYSTEM...AND ALSO AT ONONDAGA
LAKE. ANTECEDENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS HAVE NEARLY ZERO TOLERANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 12-24 HRS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HEAVY LOCALIZED RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS HAS CAUSED
FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH TO MANY BASINS. THIS MAY BE
EXACERBATED BY LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN CONVECTION. MORE
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY. CONTINUED MINOR RIVER FLOODING...TO
MODERATE AT SOME POINTS IS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL RISES EXPECTED
DUE TO THIS NEW RAINFALL FORECAST. HEADWATER POINTS ALONG THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE BASINS WILL NEED MONITORING AS MANY OF
THESE ARE NOT INDICATED TO BE IN FLOOD AT THIS TIME. THEY WILL
REACH FS IF CONVECTION HITS THE PARTICULAR BASINS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/TAC
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...JAB/TAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1011 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

NYZ015>017-022>025-055-PAZ038-290215-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-TIOGA-
BRADFORD-
1011 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING HOURS. MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION A FEW RIVER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END MIDDAY.
SATURATED GROUND COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
MEAN ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN
AREAS.

IN ADDITION A FEW RIVER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FLOODING.
HIGH RIVER LEVELS WILL START TO FALL LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-
072-290215-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1011 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
END BY 2 AM. STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITHIN THIS LINE OF
STORMS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL OR A TORNADO. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS.

ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 6 AM. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD MEAN ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION A FEW RIVER AND LAKE LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END MIDDAY.
SATURATED GROUND COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
MEAN ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION A FEW RIVER AND LAKE LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
FLOODING. HIGH RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS WILL START TO FALL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1018 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FENTON MOBILE HOME PARK 42.21N  75.82W
04/27/2011                   BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 79

&&

MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1024 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROME                    43.23N  75.49W
04/27/2011                   ONEIDA             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORRENTIAL RAIN... 1 FOOT OF WATER OVER ROAD... WATER
            UP TO CAR BUMPERS...

&&

MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1102 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GILBERTSVILLE           42.47N  75.32W
04/27/2011                   OTSEGO             NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN IN GILBERTSVILLE.

&&

MSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1105 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW BERLIN              42.62N  75.34W
04/27/2011                   CHENANGO           NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN IN SOUTH NEW BERLIN

&&

MSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1115 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SOUTH PLYMOUTH          42.58N  75.57W
04/27/2011  M0.55 INCH       CHENANGO           NY   PUBLIC

            RAIN FELL IN 20 MINUTES

&&

MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1121 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMPBELL                42.23N  77.20W
04/27/2011                   STEUBEN            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE

&&

MJN