Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
323 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAJOR FLOODING
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEEK'S END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
305 AM UPDATE...A LONG TRAIN OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT
OF NORTHERN MD TOWARD NY/PA, ALMOST EXACTLY ALONG THE SAME PATH
THAT HAS DELUGED AREAS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE PROBLEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TRAPPED BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
RIDING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEARLY STATIONARY UL JET ENTRANCE REGION.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT
SHIFT IN THE JET AFTER 12Z...POTENTIALLY ROBBING THE MOISTURE
STREAM OF ENHANCED LIFT AND WEAKENING THE NORTHWARD STREAMING OF
HIGH PWATS.

WITH THIS IN MIND WE ARE KEEPING A VERY HEAVY RAIN BAND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THROUGH 12Z, THEN FORECASTING THE BAND TO
BECOME DISORGANIZED BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. BY AFTERNOON, THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY IN NATURE.

WE ARE CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AFTER THE
BAND BECOMES DISORGANIZES...BUT THERE IS NO WAY TO PREDICT AS OF
YET WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.

815 PM UPDATE... AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN EARLIER
THIS EVE...ANOTHER ENHANCED BAND IS ABT READY TO COME BACK INTO NE
PA AND THE SRN TIER. A LONG AXIS OF MOIST IS STILL STREAMING INTO THE
WELL DEVELOPED JET ENTRANCE RGN...WITH LEE'S REMNANTS...AND
KATIA'S MOIST STREAM STILL AT PLAY. NOT GOOD. FLOODING PROBLEMS
WILL ONLY WORSEN LATER THIS EVE.

TOWARDS 09-12Z...WE TRIED TO SHOW A BACK EDGE TO THE +RA COMING
INTO THE CWA FROM THE SSW. UNFORTUNATELY...HVY SHWRS/TSTMS ARE
STILL TRAINING THRU VA/ERN MD...SO WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DESPITE OVERCAST CLOUD FORECAST, WE ARE PREDICTING TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOWER 70S TODAY AS RAIN BAND DISORGANIZES INTO GENERAL
SHOWERS. HINTS OF THIS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN AREAS SEEING BREAKS
IN THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...TEMPS ARE RISING.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS OF 71-74F GENERALLY EQUATE TO A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI'S. SO WE EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS SHORT MBE VECTORS. LITTLE TO
NO SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN HORRIBLE SHEAR PROFILE.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE XTNDD PD AS WEAK UPR RDG TRIES TO HOLD OFF ADTNL
TROPICAL MOISTURE. GFS IS COMPLETELY DFRNT THAN THE ECMWF WITH A
FAST MVG NRN STREAM WV ON MON BRINGING BRIEF PD OF RAIN. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEANED TWRD THE ECMWF SOLN THAT KEEPS MOST OF THE
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU THE PD. THIS AGREES BETTER WITH
THE PRVS FCST...AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. FLWD HPC GUID FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. THE RAIN
SHOULD DIMINISH TO SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE
MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH 13Z WITH OCNL IFR IN HEAVY RAIN BURSTS AND VFR
WHEN THE RAIN BECOMES LIGHTER. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT INTO THU NGT...MVFR AND IFR IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

FRI TO SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH SEMITROPICAL MOISTURE STILL HERE AND
SOME SHOWERS.

SUN/MON...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
420 PM UPDATE... RAINFALL FROM TODAY SO FAR (3-6")...WITHIN
THE HEAVIER PCPN BAND...PLUS ADDITIONAL EXPECTED QPF THROUGH
06-12Z...IS NOW EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAJOR/NEAR RECORD FLOODING IN
THE SUSQ BASIN. MDT-MAJ FLOODING IS FORESEEN ON THE UPPER
DEL...WITH ONLY SIG IN-BANKFUL RISES ON MUCH OF THE CHEMUNG.

OF COURSE...FLASH FLOODING IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL...AND ONGOING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA.

EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COMING NWD FROM PA...WILL ONLY ADD TO
THE FLOOD MISERY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SPECIFIC RIVER PT INFO
(ALBFLWBGM)...AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS/EMERGENCIES FOR FLASH FLOOD
INFO (ALBFFWBGM).

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-
     036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MSE
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-090730-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
321 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RAIN SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO FORWARD THEIR REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1142 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VESTAL                  42.08N  76.05W
09/07/2011                   BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

            ROUTE 434 IN VESTAL IS COMPLETELY FLOODED BOTH LANES BY
            OLD OWEGO ROAD NEXT TO CHUCKSTERS MINIATURE GOLF.

&&

MJN